Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Bettter results than expected and the market value is still only 73% of its net asset value.
Has a billion in cash, it has 3 billion of investments in Phoenix , HDFC (India) HDSC (China) it also owns ii which made £90 million contribution to group profit. They state that they paid about 16 times post tax profit for ii.
It seems to me they can keep the 14.6p dividend being paid for many years yet.
I am relaxed about this share. It can "weather" the storm and better times will return but it may take another 3 to 4 years.
It is stronger and more flexible than many of its competitors.
12p of todays fall is because the share is going ex div.
Sedaka: They have just reported brilliant results. The asian economies are all on the up which is where SC makes its money. No mgmt changes planned for at least 3 years. I am optimistic for the share price.
Mkt value to NAsset value 0.6.
The share buy back starts today. Appox 108 million shares will be bought by 29 September. Works out at about 750,000 shares bought every trading day on average. It will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the share prrice.
I am a long term holder. The business is much simpler now. The re****s come out on the 28 Feb, I believe and hope that the results will surprise to the upside. Regardless I am sure the divi will be kept at 7.3p.
OK I will clarify the events unfolded as follows.
Standard life and Aberdeen merged.
One of the largest clients of the merged group was Scottish widows.
Scottish widows said there was a conflict of interest now with the new merged group Abrdn looking after their asset magmt side.
Both scottish widows and the new group had a general insurance arm.
SO Abrdn kindly agreed to dispose of its general insurance arm to Phoenix for a 20% stake in Phoenix.
Shortly after the deal went through Scottish widows was bought by Lloyds who then decided actually we do not want Abrdn at all.
So Abrdn were fired, however not without a legal fight and substantial compensation being paid by Scotish Widows and LLoyds to Abrdn.
About 2 years ago when the new name was decided upon they decided to sell the standard life name to Phoenix along with a bit of extra business.
So now Phonix owns the standard life name and some of its business. Abrdn had 20% share of Phoenix that has been reduced down to 10% now.
So all the adverts on TV for Standard life are realting to Phoenix.
In the end Abrdn has done quite well since they have ditched all the difficult capital intensive Insurance business.
Now Abrdn owns ii and is just a huge fund manager. Nothing else really. No insurance business.
It has 10% stake in Phoenix and a big stake in an Indian Asset magmt company, HDFC, I think this is valued at about £1 billion.
Actually you are wrong about the volume. Considering the 2.89 billion shares in issue and usual volume levels. The volume going through is just normal.
I am a long term holder and are not unduly worried about the sell recomendations.
My experience is that share tipsters are nearly always wrong. The company is still very profitable. and valued at 7 times earnings. The assets under mgmt should inscrease substantially just because the market has increased. Higher performance fees.
The company has net assets of £7 billion and a mkt value of £4 billion. I am pretty sure the divi will stay at 14.6p per year for a few years. They have masses of reserves and receive £100 million divi income a year from phoenix and India HDFC.
ii I am sure will aslo contribute £60 mill this year. They have wriggle room to get their act together.
Despite their denial, I still think FAB will make an offer some time during 2023. SC is very cheap by any measure, and it meets a lot of FAB's ambitions by buying it.
I suspect the results of SC will be stellar this year, 21 Feb announcing, with a big shareholder give away.
Buy backs and divis.
$35 billion at 1.21 is £29 billion divided by 2.89 billion shares in issue .
My feeling is that the deal will go through. No doubt that the Abu Dhabi can get the money. London is not looking such a great place to be for a bank in a global world with 2 differnt systems.
Etc Etc.
Even if the deal did fall over I still think the bank is a good buy. The only caveat is if war breaks out over Taiwan.
I do not mind the name now. I did at first.
Apparently ABRDN works well in Asia and particularly China which is of course where all the future growth will be.
The "west" is a mature market. The market does get bigger so you just steal market share from a competitor.
China is a hugely growing market so there is plenty for everybody without needing to steal market share.
Even with a TO off the table for the time being this share is still a stonking buy, IMHO. I have high hopes for the results a divi and or a further share buy back this year.
Bill Winters has turned out to be just what SC needed. A safe pair of steady hands.
As Bill has stated, SC will do well when interest rates start to rise.
Everything is going well, beats all expectations and the the share price still goes down 1%.
It is a quality invetment and I am in for the long term.
The primary reason is that provided the dividend can continue which is Abrdn case it seems it can continue for many years then if the share price does fall; a short term investment can become a long term investment and you can still come up smelling of roses.
Does anyone know when the so-called special divi will materialise?
Yes.
There is no special divi. The £300 million from the Phoenix sale is being used to buy back chare capital instead of a special divi.
Share capital is reduced by about 8%. It means to keep the divi at 14.6p the company will only need to make £300 million a year!
I am reasonably relaxed about this holding and believe that it has good prospects. I know it is not a popular opinion here but share buy backs in my opinion are a good use of capital at these depressed prices. I wish they would do more. It means the divi can be higher in the future.
1) Abrdn has £1.7 billion in listed investments. Phoenix HDFC Indian fund manager.
2) Abrdn gets nearly 100 million from divi income every year from these investments.
3)ii I believe was a good buy and a good direction for Abrdn to go.
4) I do not see the divi falling from 14.6p per year for many years.
5) The BOD keep their cards close to there chest abnd do not give out much info on the company. I have no doubts they have more plans to announce.
I do not think the company is in terminal decline. we are fortunate in that the BS is so strong that it gives them time to react and whether the current storm.