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My understanding is that Ladbrookes has the biggest exposure in the UK to a cut to £2 FOBT stake. I do not know the cost of shutting thousands of bookies. GVC is also the most invested in the USA market with the MGM deal. I get the impression the company is betting everything on the USA market and has abandoned any growth in the UK or Europe.
Looking at the balance sheet its current liabilities exceed its current assets. It has 2.2 billion of debt against a 6.1 billion intangible asset. Mostly Ladbrookes I suspect whose value has almost certainly fallen.
Although it made a reported loss last year it is highly cash generative.
Directors do not sell in a depressed market like this unless they know something is not right. Obviously they did not see the price going up to £10 a share in the near future at all. My guess is that they have knowledge that the USA is backtracking on its commitment to open up the gambling sector. This with the heavy debts of GVC and the £2 FOBT could be catastrophic.
Bill Winters has to go. These results are shockingly bad. Net profit fallen to appox £600 million. The market was expecting £2.2 billion! He has been in position for 4 years and the share price has halved in his time! Absolutely appalling.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/interserve-lenders-sweeten-terms-500m-120300820.html
On the 8 Jan 2018 the SP was £4.40.
An incredible fall for FTSE 100 company.
The BOD maintain they have an increasing dividend policy. Obviously no one believes they can pay out at an increasing rate.
It seems to me the market is pricing in a 50% cut in the dividend.
The BOD are unusually quiet given the big fall in the SP.
I suspect that some are more in the know on this company than us mere mortals. These strange shareholdings do not fit with a company about to head to the wall. Given that so many of the shares are held by major corporate entities small investors piddling around at 30p is largely irrelevant to them. All will be clear by the end of March. "Do you feel lucky punk" comes to mind?
Institutional Ownership IRV’s 61.05% institutional ownership seems enough to cause large share price movements in the case of significant share sell-off or acquisitions by institutions, particularly when there is a low level of public shares available on the market to trade.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/commercial-services/lse-irv/interserve-shares/news/who-are-the-largest-shareholders-in-interserve-plc-lonirv/<br /><br />
No. But it is a quite likely scenario.
Personally I think a likely outcome is the company will de list and go privately owned.
Only 30% of the stock is available to trade anyway. 70% is held by the 3 major lending organisations.
The company cannot do much about the low share price. I am sure they do not mind since they can buy back more shares than originally planned. If the company reports an improvement in funds under management and maintains or improves the divi at 23p a year the shares will recover very quickly indeed. I think investors are pricing in a fall in the divi and a fall in funds under management for 2018.
There is a lot of scaremongering on this board. This company is not like Clln.
Appreciate that for every seller of shares there is a buyer. Appox 12 million shares have been traded in the last two days. Of the 45 million available that is nigh on 30%. Obviously a lot of panic selling.
The board cannot come out with a statement such as yesterday if it it is not true. There are only 45 days until the year end. They will have a good idea of what the results are likely to be already.
The banks do not control or underwrite this company. In affect it is the three principal shareholders who own 70% of the company.
I for one will hold on at least until the 2018 results.
Metamorphosis84
You really do hate this company don't you!
A huge number of shares have been traded today. From memory only 30% of shares are held by small investors.
Appox 45million. We could see nearly 10% of all available shares traded just today.
So there was an RNS but it did not tell us much other than plans are on track. I am giving Debbie and her team the benefit of the doubt for now and will continue to hold. So I am not panicking.
Personally I do not think there will be an RNS anytime soon. The BOD does not have to provide one. I think they will treat it as business as usual. It could after all be a vicious rumour put about by an EX investor with a vested interest in talking the share down. I think the next update will be March / April 2019.
Obviously cannot underwrite a recovery in the SP But:
For every seller there is a buyer so others, not subscribers to this board are buying big.
They will have also considered the risk. I suspect there will be a bit more downside since I suspect the market makers are holding a ton of shares.
I do not think an RNS will stabilise this share. Only audited results of next March will do that if they are positive.
As for funding I do not think the government will let this one sink. It is a different company to Clln. Plus it would be at a very sensitive Brexit time. So for the sake of £100 mill as a back stop I think the government would step in.
It has not been directly confirmed by the company that they need more funding. Also there are a few institutional investors with way more at stake than anyone here. I am watching closely but not panicking.
Judging from the very quiet BOD of Interserve and from the admittance that they need more money
in order to survive there does seem to be a major problem. Even a slimmed down Interserve with half the TO would be better than this.
My view is that there are a lot of long term and medium term holders throwing in the towel. Before anyone accuses me of talking the share down I am a holder and have been for a few years. Bare in mind that there are only 150 million shares in issue of those only 30% are held by non institution investors. 45 million.
Every 10 days or so 10% of all available shares are traded. Whacky stuff.
There is no chance of a rights issue at this price. It all comes down to whether you believe that IRV has a future. I can see that a lot of people have got fed up waiting. As a holder I do think it will be OK in 2 to 3 years. But I doubt the share will hit £1 this side of 2020
It seems to me that a lot of medium to long term holders are throwing in the towel. The board has gone very quiet which is a shore sign. My guess the people buying the shares now and taking up the slack are investing on a pure win or lose everything gamble. This is fine although it means that the share will likely spend a protracted period sub £1. Any uptick and recent buyers will take the profit.
In my opinion we are all betting on the next set of results. If no improvement is shown I suspect this company will go tits up! Suppliers will lose confidence and Interserve would struggle to win contracts.
If some improvement is shown then Interserve will be given a bit more time. I do believe that the survival of this company comes down to the next set of results.