Member Info for LLucan

There is no chance of petrofac ever suing or claiming compensation. The SFO are completely in the right. Remember that Petrofac staff have already admitted the crime:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/07/british-former-oil-executive-pleads-guilty-to-bribery

It will be wrapped up in 2020. Petrofac will get a fine but unlikely now for further arrests. It is all tied into Unaoil which comes to court in Jan 2020. How bigger fine is the issue. My guess is 50 to 100 million.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/petrofac-considers-offshore-oil-asset-015915011.html
Malaysia has the best quality oil in the world.

The reason the SFO investigation is taking so long is that it is linked with Unaoil.
The SFO was nearly shut down for incompetance about 5 years ago. They have had a bit more success recently.
The Unaoil case comes up in January 2020.
The PFC case cannot be settled before.
Given the length of the investigation it is very very unlikely there will be any aressts now.
Almost certainly PFC will get a fine.
It just depends how much
The SFO is not allowed to damage the UK's PLC to such an extent they cannot trade.
Otherwise we would not have an SFO.
They are not allowed to damage British Industry. they are supposed to go after the perpetrators of sup[posed illegal acts.
I do expect the PFC case to be finalised within 6 months. Have to wait for the Unaoil case to complete.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-think-petrofac-pfc-share-142819436.html

The company is becoming increasingly profitable.
It has virtually zero debt.
It has a P/E ratio of 6
It looks like revenue is going to be up on last year.
It has offloaded all of its dubious ventures.
It has hardly any made up "intangible assets" on the balance sheet.
It has nearly 1 billion in cash in the bank.
Sooner or later it will have to increase the divi, or buy share capital which would be more sensible at these low prices.
IMHO Petrofac will pull through.
I would rather be in Petrofac than the wood group. They have billions on the balance sheet in inatangibles which I suspect will be written down in 2020.
The share price movement of Petrofac is little different to that of Haliburton or Schlumberger.
The whole sector is on a downer at the moment.
Who wants to be associated with oil!
Only when everyone has "thrown in their hat" will the price start creeping up.

I think there will be politics at play. The government does not really like the SFO. There will be a lot of pressure to go light on Petrofac since none of the "joe public" suffered, directly.

Finally some good news from our highly paid CEO. I am optimistic this will go on an upward trajectory towards £10 a share now. 2022 it could well get to £10.

IMHO: The SFO are waiting to see what happens with Unaoil. Case comes up in January 2020. If this case collapses or goes against SFO the PFC case will be dropped like a hot potato. If Unaoil lose the case then I suspect the SFO will fine PFC.
I doubt anything will happen with the SFO this side of Jan 2020. I doubt the fine on PFC would be dracconian anyway. They have no interest in killing a successful company.

The holders of the shorts have to pay any declared dividend to the owner of the shares they borrowed them from.
There is a cost to holding a short. You often see shorters reducing their position before a share goes ex div. Today the shorters have had to pay out about £1.7 million for holding their short positions.

Does anyone know which day the interim results come out? It is the end of August usually.

Since he took over 4 years ago the share price has halved. The divi is a third of what it use to be.
Something is fundamentaly wrong. The head count is double comparable banks baed on per sale generated.
His salary package is huge for a non performing CEO

Velo
I am with you, this stinks. As for selling because of institutional demand.!!!
Acquisitive companies can hide a lot of dross for years in the accounts.
I am not confident the cash flow is enough to cover the debt and the divi. Particularly with the loss of the FOBT income.

kenj
If what you are saying is true why are they even bothering negotiating?
The pre-pack has to be agreed by a court appointed insiolvency practitioner.
The BOD could face litigation and more if they fail to act in the best interests of shareholders.
Not only that but it would be a "hot coal" for a liquidator to go with a pre-pack when there is a viable offer on the table. The BOD might not think it is viable but a court may
I do not think it is a done deal at all yet or they would not have increased the offer.

I think the board are worried that Coltrane may derail their pre-pack plans.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/interserve-attacks-hedge-fund-coltrane-122700881.html

The BOD have to consider that if Coltrane are not happy with the deal they may bring legal claims against the board for not working in the best interests of the shareholders. Are the BOD in cohoots with lenders.
I also think the government is working in that background. They do not want Interserve to go bust. Pre-pack they could probably live with but it may be difficult to force it through if Coltrane is being difficult.

For every share seller there is a buyer. So who is buying the shares? Coltrane maybe or more likely the lenders to ensure the pre-pack gets voted through.

feileb
There is always a worry.
Nothing is certain at this stage.
It looks like if it is a pre-pack then it will just carry on as before with the same supliers and customers and only the shareholders lose out.

Love_You.
"Do not get me wrong"
Interserve 100% will have a future. If it is a liquidation, administration then the suppliers and everybody will lose. But there are still very profitable parts of the business that would be sold off by a liquidator very quickly.
If it is a pre-pack then it seems that only the shareholders lose and all the suppliers get paid and it carries on as before as a private company.
A pre-pack as we know is very bad news for existing shareholders.
Coltrane I suspect is holding out for a better deal than 5% which is being proposed. He has already manged to get it up from 2.5%.
He has said that he will just lose his stake rather than accept 5%
Hence it all comes to Friday and who blinks first!
As for sharholders Do you sell now or take the gamble?
"Do you feel lucky punk"

If it id s prepack it seeems that the suppliers will noy

It is all down to how Coltraine reacts in my opinion.

In the article it states:

"A pre-pack administration enables the company to sell itself or its assets before it appoints administrators who take over the running of the business to protect creditors".

The shareholdets own the company before it goes into administration. The shareholders can vote for a normal liquidation and administration if it gives the creditors and shareholders more money.
What is unusual with this pre-pack is that the shareholers may not agree to it.