Member Info for LLucan

I am optimistic. If I had to buy 1 FTSE share to hold for 2 to 6 years this would be it. Given that $1 billion is being bought back and a furthet $1 billion second half. I do expect the share price to increase this year. 14.1% tier 1 ratio is better than expected. Bil Winters is creating a real cash machine here. With the massive share buy backs and the continued good results sooner or later the share price will shoot up. I am not selling my shares for less than £10. I may be the last man standing.

On the right track. As long as they can maintain the dividend at 14.6p a year I am happy.

It seems that they will probably be able to do this. The adjusted earnings per share is 13.9p so not quite covering the divi.

I think these results means that the share price will "tread water" for the next 12 months. I would not want to be short in this share though since Bird does seem to be making progress.

I do not think it will be taken over. The volumes traded have been falling over the past few years. Even small trades are having a big affect on the share price.

I have confidence in Stephen Bird to turn this around. Todays announcement is good news. It means the divi is safe at 7.3p this Feb. He is taking steps to increase profits etc. The sector is out of favour and interest rates are high. When these start to come down the share price will go up. In the meantime enjoy an 8% reasonably secure return.

I am not worried about this share and less so after the announcement today.

What I worry about is when compnaies do not react to changing conditions or do not have a plan.

At least Stephen Bird has a plan.

The boys in shorts are now wearing brown trousers!

They would have announnced something by now if they were going to.

I suspect there will be silence until the 20th however the share price fall does seem to have formed a base. (famous last words)

I have never seen the volume of shares traded like this before. In 3 days over 60 million shares have been traded. That is well over 10% of all the shares in issue.

If you consider 100 million are held by insiders who have not sold, it is even a higher percentage.

Given there is no update from the BOD I am guesssing this is share price manipulation by shorters.

The LSE is very strict about reporting so if anything was untoward I think the board would have had to disclose it.

I have no doubts the LSE have been in touch with the BOD of petrofac.

I doubt there is any point in them doing a fundraisng.

With the market value at £150 million they could in reality raise very little.

Who would put more money in at this price? You might as well write off your investment and invest elsewhere.

My guess is the company would be sold at a knock down price.

I suspect Afari holding 100 million shares will know what is going on.

Given the share prics has moved substantially over the past 10 days and there has been no updatye from the company would suggest to me that it is business as usual.

Anything that the company is aware of which could materially move the share price the dirtectors legally have to report it to the market.

That includes any potential capital reorgansiation.

At this stage given nothing has been reported even though the share price has moved considerably wouydl suggest to me that it is business as usual and the company will report on the 20th Dec.

100 million shares have traded in just a few days, my guess is that the share is being played!"

Asfari with his 100 million had not sold any.

He has to be the biggest loser!

I do appreciate that cash leaves the company and shares are cancelled so on the face of it there is no gain. But if you feel the shares are under valued then the company buying shares does make sense. Fewer shares available on the market should push the price up. I do think it would be lower without the buy back. IMHO the reason the share price is depressed from where I belive it should be is beacsue of the shorts at 4.5%. They are expecting a further fall in AUM.. I think this could be another bad half but over the next year I think it will improve. Interst rates start to fall pension contributions increase with a rise in wages etc.

ABD has 1.5 bill for ii 500 mill of phoenix shares and £1 billion in cash and other assets. That is £3 billion of Assets before one even considers the Fund management of £500 billion.

I think the share has a lot of potential.

20% of all the shares in issue (over 100million) have traded in November.

Some of that will be the same share but even so a huge number given one shareholder owns 20% of the stock which I do not think has been sold.

I think the declared shorts will be hitting 8 or 9 % in the next few days.

Actually they are doing the right thing buying the shares back.

It is a very cheap way of returning funds to shareholders.

In my opinion and the company's the shares are under valued substantially.

It means that more money can be paid out in the future to shareholdres.

Eventually quality will shine through and the share price will rise.

With now only 1860,000,000 shares outstanding the divi costs only £271 million a year.

ii makes 100 million, Phoenix pays a divi of £50 mill

So the comany only needs to find another £120 million on the £490 billion of AUM.

I am optimistic this share will be considerably higher in 2 to 3 years time.

Does anyone know the date of the trading update in December.

Last year it was the 20th. That is not so far off.

I do not think that is imminent at all. A TO is more likely. Some investors with very big shareholdings are not going to let it all collpapse.

Shorters are increasing because they do not believe the company has a future without a cash call on shareholders.

The Balance Sheet has about £80 million sterling of net assets at 31 december 2022.

One more year of losses and the B/S goes negative!

It is not going to be possible for a company to win and maintain million pound/ billion pound contracts with a negative balance sheet.

With a PFC market value of £300 million any cash call is unlikley to raise alot.

Where volume of shares traded for a day are low then often the ABDN share price increases dispraportionately to the market.

As I have said before I am not that concerened about this share. When the stock market improves this share will rise by a magnitude of 1.5 appox

They have been buying shares steadily over the past few months. they are now buying £150million of shares between now no and 23 December. They are no allowed to buy them all at once. It has to be over a period of time. So it is about 700,000 shares per trading day they buy back.

Without the share buybacks the price would be a lot lower.

ABDN timing on buy backs is a bit out but it does mean that the prfit the company needs to make in the future to maintain or increase the divi will be less.

They get £50 million from Phoenix in divi. £100million from profits at ii. They should be able to scrape together another £120 million from managing £500 billion pounds of assets.

I am not hugely worried about this share. I think a lot of the fall is cyclical.

The deluge of selling forcing down the share price will stop eventually. It is not all doom and gloom. The divi has been maintained so anyone with a long term holding has to factor in the 14p minimum a year they have received.

The Phonix investment is valued at 500mill the ii investment is £1.5 billion so that is £2bill in total of identifiable performing investments.

ABDN has nearly £500 billion AUM that does give them a bit of riggle room.

The adjusted net profit figure just about covered the divi for the first 6 months.

They are making progress burt it is taking a lot longer than originally anticipated.

The sector is well out of favour.

Interest rates look like they will be elevated for at least another year.

Until AUM can start to increase again I do not see this share increasing in value a great deal.

I think there is a chance the divi could be cut but I think it is low chance:

Adjusted profit (which is the main indicator S Bird looks at) covers the divi.

The number of shares in issue is falling so ABDN only have to make £270 mill to cover the yearly divi.

They have other assets and investments they could sell.

I think it will fall out of the FTSE 100 in September but when interst rates come down investors start returning to shares then ABDN will also recover.

I think at current prices it is a low risk investment with a very good chance the divi will be maintained.