Member Info for LLucan

A huge number of shares have been traded today. From memory only 30% of shares are held by small investors.
Appox 45million. We could see nearly 10% of all available shares traded just today.

So there was an RNS but it did not tell us much other than plans are on track. I am giving Debbie and her team the benefit of the doubt for now and will continue to hold. So I am not panicking.

Personally I do not think there will be an RNS anytime soon. The BOD does not have to provide one. I think they will treat it as business as usual. It could after all be a vicious rumour put about by an EX investor with a vested interest in talking the share down. I think the next update will be March / April 2019.

Obviously cannot underwrite a recovery in the SP But:
For every seller there is a buyer so others, not subscribers to this board are buying big.
They will have also considered the risk. I suspect there will be a bit more downside since I suspect the market makers are holding a ton of shares.
I do not think an RNS will stabilise this share. Only audited results of next March will do that if they are positive.
As for funding I do not think the government will let this one sink. It is a different company to Clln. Plus it would be at a very sensitive Brexit time. So for the sake of £100 mill as a back stop I think the government would step in.
It has not been directly confirmed by the company that they need more funding. Also there are a few institutional investors with way more at stake than anyone here. I am watching closely but not panicking.

Judging from the very quiet BOD of Interserve and from the admittance that they need more money
in order to survive there does seem to be a major problem. Even a slimmed down Interserve with half the TO would be better than this.

My view is that there are a lot of long term and medium term holders throwing in the towel. Before anyone accuses me of talking the share down I am a holder and have been for a few years. Bare in mind that there are only 150 million shares in issue of those only 30% are held by non institution investors. 45 million.
Every 10 days or so 10% of all available shares are traded. Whacky stuff.
There is no chance of a rights issue at this price. It all comes down to whether you believe that IRV has a future. I can see that a lot of people have got fed up waiting. As a holder I do think it will be OK in 2 to 3 years. But I doubt the share will hit £1 this side of 2020

It seems to me that a lot of medium to long term holders are throwing in the towel. The board has gone very quiet which is a shore sign. My guess the people buying the shares now and taking up the slack are investing on a pure win or lose everything gamble. This is fine although it means that the share will likely spend a protracted period sub £1. Any uptick and recent buyers will take the profit.

In my opinion we are all betting on the next set of results. If no improvement is shown I suspect this company will go tits up! Suppliers will lose confidence and Interserve would struggle to win contracts.
If some improvement is shown then Interserve will be given a bit more time. I do believe that the survival of this company comes down to the next set of results.

I also go through AJ Bell. If the cash return is not there close of business Monday I will chase aggressively. The only divis that do sometimes get delayed by a day are if there is a really big company like Vodafone that pays out. I was told that these big divis give the AJBell team a lot of work to do to get them top everyones accounts in a day.

If certain profit conditions are not met bond holders and lenders have an option to acquire 20% of the share capital at 10p a share. Quite a dilution. The results come next March will be sink or survive, no halfway house. IMO.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/195984/interserve-signs-refinancing-deal-with-its-lenders-bond-providers-and-pension-scheme-trustees-195984.html

I do not think there will be a rights issue. The company is valued at £83 million, which is not very much. The company has £600 million of debt and £2 billion TO. A rights issues would have to be so diluting eg 5:1 at 50p a share that most people would just walk away. A rights issue is not really possible at this sort of value. 70% of the shares are held by institutions, I doubt they would tolerate a rights issue either.
As you state more likely there will be a slow reduction in debt over 3 years to 10 years. I doubt there will; be a divi for at least 5 years. There is no quick recovery here.

The bank is not being run for the benefit of shareholders but for the benefit of the staff. The bonuses are huge and are not linked at all to share price. The massive bonuses are paid if a ROE of 8% is reached which is very low and only enough to pay an annual divi of 20p. Not enough to move the share price above £10 ever again. There is a forecast dividend yield of 3% which is derisory compared to where it was 5 years ago. This company has been the worst performing FTSE 100 company for 4 years in a row. Bill Winters needs to go urgently.

They do not know. Most data published is just volume data which is accurate. Buying and selling numbers are far from accurate. I think some of it comes from whether it is the market maker meeting an order or investor. But from what I can make buying and selling number s are a finger in the air.

Don't let the buggers grind you down. I have been around the block a few times. I am not hugely concerned by this share. Funding is in place and there are a few investors who would lose hundreds of millions if this belly up. These investors know a lot more about the company than we do. I would not expect fireworks after the AGM but 6 months from now I would be surprised if this is not above 90p. These small movements are to be expected. I would not look at the share price so often, right off the money in your mind and come back in 3 months.

Everyday that passes means progress for Interserve. No news is good news. Funding is in place to avoid the company going bust. Fundamentally the business is profitable it is only the Waste contract that has caused 90% of the problems. In time the debt will come down, in time Debbie will kick ass. Just do not expect instant results. Time is a friend of Interserve. They are providing a valuable service that is needed and necessary for society to function. This is not a frivolous here today gone tomorrow business.

Only if you elected to have the shares rather than the cash, otherwise you get cash.

In the past 10 days there have been over 35 million shares in Interserve traded. It is a quarter of the entire share capital.

Take no notice of Liberium capital stock comments. If you look at BHP Billington they have a target price of �8 for years. BHP is currently trading at over double that. Liberium are the very worst broker. They have no credibility what so ever. I have never ever heard or seen them call a share even nearly correctly.

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