Member Info for LLucan

Well it says he left by mutual agreement but for me this means he was fired. It happened so quickly and the company is likely to be kicked out the FTSE100. The share price has fallen by 30% since he took over. He has been there about 2 years.

I am not unhappy he has gone at all. He was incredibly out of his depth.

The dividend yield is hovering around 4%. The inflation rate in the UK is 3.8%. There is a lot of risk attached to this share for little return.

I can easily see this falling a lot further. If the stock market turns this share will plummet.

How can a production facility which has already been built take so lone to fit out. They want another 2 years until production is up and running!

The company will obviously fall out of the FTSE 100. The founder of the company's family still owns 27% of the shareholding.

At least it still appears profitable but I am not convinced the current BOD have much of a clue. I can see this getting a whole lot worse.

My experience is that a profit downgrade is just the start. I suspect there will be another downgrade in February 2026 and another in the Autumn.

I think the sensible thing is to keep buying. There does not seem anything that would cause such a sharp fall and the dividend is still fine.

With Hikma developing its own weight loss drug and the country patents all coming to an end in the next 6 years it should be a massive growth area.

https://www.ft.com/content/3f03b203-72a8-4921-9ecc-0c9ea9ec0f62

I am going to keep buying for now. Having said that my short term investment has as per usual turned into a long term investment. At least there is a reasonable dividend. 61p a year.

I am a buyer of Hikma but my patience is being tested. On the face of it the product is good in a growth area. The brokers all have buys at well over

£20 a share but still the share price keeps falling.

The volume of shares traded is well up. The dividend is well covered. I find it hard to believe that just a fall in cash flow and margin which can be explained away could have such a dramatic affect on the share price.

I am beginning to think there is more to this continued fall . 3 months ago it was at £21 a share

TO is up but margin and cash flow are well down.

The divi yield is on the low side and it is just about to be booted out the FTSE 100.

The CEO took over in September 2023 and since then the share price is down 25%.

It is going to take a good few years to get back up at £21 a share.

Https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B0H2K534/

Given Hargreaves has a valuation of £5.4 billion and is about taken over it would seem that the £1.5 billion paid by ABRDN for ii was a bargain. AJ Bell which is smaller than ii has a valuation of £1.7 billion. But ABRDN also has a further £350 billion under management and a 11% share of phoenix.

It strikes me that it will not take much to turn ABRDN around.

Operating profit was £94Mill last year so probably higher than £100mil this year

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11801777/Abrdn-loss-sees-profits-interactive-Investor-double.html

"One swallow does not make a summer" but the first quarter results are encouraging.

As the divi is paid next week I think there could be more upside over the next few days. I would be nervous of being short in this share. I would say more upside than downside now.

Personally I do not think anyone will come forward to buy it in the present climate. Fund managers are really out of favour.

I also do not think the divi will be cut from 14.6p.

£494 billion under management, an 11% share in phoenix giving 60 million a year in divi and 100 million from ii.

The company should be able to generate enough to cover the 14.6p divi.

They still have quite a liot of resources availaible so I suspect the divi will be maintained for tjhe next few years at a minimum of 14.6p a year.

They paid £1.5 billion for ii this generates about 100 million net profit. They have a £600 million investment in Phoenix.

So they have identifiable investments of £2.1 billion.

ABDN is valued at about £2.5 billion they also have £494 billion of assets under management .

I think it will recover slightly over the next 2 years but I am doudtful it will get to £2.

Interest rates coming down should mean more money into equities.

The part of the business, which is a big part, which is not performing is the fund managment side. Which was why Bird was thinking about selling it.

If they can turn this side around and get a net increase of funds invested all will be fine over 5 years.

If they continue to have a net outflow of funds then a vualtion of £2 billion would be about right! 20% lower than where it is now.

On the positive side the adjusted profit figure just about covers the dividend. So they do seem to be making progress.

It seems to me that there is too much pesimism about this share.

It is still paying a cracking dividend. The Adjusted earnings were 14.1p which nearly covers the dividend.

The adjusted earnings is the one the company uses to make dividend decisions.

Interest rates will come down later this year which should mean more monsy coming into shares.

There is an 5% to 8% increase in pension funds paying into ABDN funds. Just to keep up with wage growth.

It still has £494 billion under management.

It makes £100 million prifit on ii. It has a 10% holding in Phoenix.

It has other long term investments. Such as Archax.

Of course there is rsk attached to any investment but given all the differnt income streams the company has. a £2.4 billion valuation seems a tad on the low side.

If you have held this share since 1 Jan 2020 you have already received 65p p of dividend income.

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/9-dividend-yield-abrdn-share-114806091.html

The standard report does not seem accurate. The company has £494 billion under management. Not less than £40 billion. I do not think the results are that terrible. Managed funds are totally out of favour so this £494 billion may fall further. As long as they make enough to keep paying 14.6p I am happy.

Since 1 Jan 2019 $6 billion of share capital has been bought back. I know many think share buy backs are a waist of money but buying back shares at these low prices really makes sennse. In time the share price will go up.

$5 billion profit each year is now being divided up amongst fewer shareholders. The P/E ratio is 6.5 or so. Something eventually will have to give.

I think the share price will drift up over the next few weeks since in my experience "shorters" hate paying out divi's.

15 March is cut off for a payment on 30 April.

I am neutral on the results and will hold for now. The regular divi helps.

The company always uses the "adjusted figures".

Adjusted capital generation was £299 million this year. Up from £259 last year.

The BOD have reiterated that they will not increase the divi until capital generation is 1.5 times the divi payout.

The divi payout this year, 14.6p, cost £269 million.

So adjusted capital generation needs to be above £400 million before they increase the divi.

I suppose there is an outside chance this may happen in 2025.

He got way off his potential maximum bonus. It is a pretty bad industry to be in at the moment. With these results he has bought himself another year. I am optimistic the tide will turn for ABDN this year. "ii" shoudl be fine. "Advisor" division seems to be doing well. It is just "Fund manager " part £494 billion which is bad. They also own 10% of phoenix so a divi of £50 million a year is pretty much guranteed.