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That is ignoring Bridging data for SVN002 which will catapult market capital and hasten the Nasdaq listing and assuming that no deal on SVN001 is ever done ...

Complete no brainer to go all in here imo ...

While no deal has been announced as of October 6, 2025, the combination of multiple parallel negotiations, a capital-efficient business model focused on out-licensing (rather than full commercialization), and comparable deals in the neuropsychiatric space (e.g., mid-stage assets fetching £150–200 million upfront plus royalties) indicates strong momentum.

finance.yahoo.com +1

Biotech licensing success rates at this stage (late Phase 3 partnering for a high-unmet-need indication like AUD, affecting ~40 million in the US/UK/EU) are estimated at 60–80% within the target timeline, based on industry benchmarks for CNS assets with positive interim data and regulatory bridges (e.g., to 505(b)(2) pathways).

proactiveinvestors.com

Thus, the estimated probability of Solvonis successfully licensing SVN-001 by end-2025 is 75%. This is a qualitative assessment derived from the disclosed progress and sector comparables; actual outcomes depend on negotiation dynamics and trial milestones.

Q4 - SVN001 more data from NHS trial.

Q4 SVN002 - Bridging Data from SVN002 to Spravato.

Q4 Spravato Earnings - to report in Jan 2026 but they will have early indications, Spravato increased sales and forward projection numbers.

Johnson & Johnson (Janssen)

around $1.7bn

In its Q2 2025 financials, Johnson & Johnson reported strong sales of Spravato, with sales up more than 50% versus the same quarter last year. With $414M in revenue, the drug is on track to bring in around $1.7bn for the company this year.29 Jul 2025

High (Bundling Potential)

Highest (Strategic Imperative)

SVN-002 directly bridges to Spravato (esketamine nasal spray for TRD), enabling easier U.S. approval and shared reimbursement codes. J&J's $14B Intra-Cellular acquisition (March 2025) bolsters its depression/AUD pipeline; forums speculate a "bidding war" to preempt disruption to Spravato's $300M+ sales. SVN-001 fits EU expansion.

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS)

High

High

$14B Karuna Therapeutics buyout (2025) for KarXT (schizophrenia/depression) signals aggressive CNS push; AUD overlaps with mood disorders. BMS seeks late-stage assets for quick revenue; £150M SVN-002 deal aligns with their $100M+ addiction acquisitions (e.g., Indivior analogs).

Otsuka Pharmaceutical

Medium-High

High

Co-markets Spravato with J&J globally; expertise in U.S. CNS delivery. Recent AUD investments (e.g., generic expansions) make SVN-002 a natural extension; could partner for ex-U.S. rights on SVN-001.

Indivior PLC

Medium

Medium-High

Specializes in addiction (e.g., Sublocade for opioid use); £100M+ AUD deals in portfolio. SVN programs' behavioral therapy component aligns with their relapse-prevention focus; U.S. infrastructure suits SVN-002.

Lundbeck

Medium

Medium

Strong EU CNS presence (e.g., Rexulti for depression); AUD trials ongoing. Fits SVN-001's UK/EU Phase 3; less U.S. emphasis but growing via partnerships.

Additional InsightsUnnamed Partners: CEO Anthony Tennyson confirmed "four pharma companies" in Q3 2025 interviews, likely including 1–2 from the above (e.g., J&J + BMS as frontrunners). Deals could bundle SVN-001/002 for £200–250M total.

Risks/Timeline: SVN-001 licensing could close Q4 2025; SVN-002 post-bridging studies (Q4 2025) and Phase 2b (2027). Failure in trials or competition (e.g., generic ketamine) could lower bids.

Market Context: AUD market (~$1.4B U.S. in 2025, 6.6% CAGR) is underserved; recent CNS M&A (Gilgamesh's $1.2B out-license) validates high valuations.

Monitor Solvonis' RNS announcements and J&J/BMS earnings calls for updates—Q4 2025 bridging data could trigger bids.

Ai is seeing that J & J are the front runner to take out SVN002, have history in trying to protect growing market share via acquisition.

Logical grounds for concern exist:Market Overlap: SVN-002 targets AUD but bridges to Spravato's depression data, potentially eroding J&J's monopoly on supervised esketamine delivery. Generic IV ketamine already competes informally; SVN-002 could formalize cheaper alternatives.

Timing: Solvonis' Q4 2025 bridging report aligns with Spravato's expansion phase. J&J's $5B+ neuroscience sales forecast (including Spravato) could face dilution if SVN-002 succeeds.

Precedent: J&J has faced ketamine rivals (e.g., off-label IV clinics) and responded with acquisitions (e.g., Intra-Cellular in March 2025 for $14B to bolster depression portfolio).

Dennis Purcell and Anthony Tennyson both said on separate interviews that the FDA meeting went well, also covered in an RNS.

The FDA have told them what they need to do to a have a phase 2b trial.

Theyve employed an FDA approved supplier who are dual registered in China and Hongkong, leading industry specialists, expected to report in Q4 2025 that the svn002 data for sublingual and buccal ketamin usage on aud treatments has been bridged to the existing spravato Johnson and Johnson ketamin data used for depression treatments.

That gives the green light to start 2026 patient recruitment into phase 2 (b).

It also, instantly makes svn002 a licensing target for big pharma.

Anthony Tennyson was cautious when he said it would be licensed once it had reported on its phase 2b but looking at other pharmas bought out in phase 1 and early 2 this is clearly not the case,when a pharma wishes to control the test!

J&J will be watching this very closely, it could ruin their lead treatment Spravato.

They pretty much have to buy it early doors, as if any bad/negative data was turned in, the FDA could backtrace the bridging data and rescind Spravato's licence.

Equally if it is approved, the clinics and staff that J & J paid to set up and train would plug straight into svn002 and J&J would lose the financial benefit.

There is a lot of evidence that alcohol misuse and depression are linked.

If 002 treats your patients and they don't need Spravato anymore as the aud treatment and copyrighted talking therapy cured your alcoholic depression patients, your multi billion $ business model just went ta la.

I would expect 002 to have a bidding war, with more competitiveness and money on offer than 001 due to this inflection point.

Https://newsfile.refinitiv.com/getnewsfile/v1/story?guid=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20250127:nRSa6694Ua&default-theme=true

Regulatory path and exclusivity: Awakn is targeting a Regulation 52b hybrid application in the UK for AWKN-001. If successful, this could provide 8 years of market exclusivity, with an additional 2 years of supplementary protection, preventing competitors from marketing a similar product for the same indication. Awakn is planning to commence market access discussions with the UK Department of Health this year.

Licensing Discussions with four potential partners underway as well ...

Could be that the MM'S went fishing for the leverage that bought in hard on the recent price rise.

Lots of large sells and small buys this week vs last 2 weeks, small sells lumped into big buys.

After that last 10m sell the mm's reverted to their standard pattern.

Cont ...

Total Potential Value (Deal + Royalties)

£200-250M

Bull case if bundled with SVN-001 (Q4 2025 talks); supports analyst targets (e.g., 1.6p/share, +789% from 0.34p, implying £100M+ pipeline value).

Strategic ContextNear-Term Catalysts: PK bridging completion (Q4 2025), IND filing (H1 2026)—could trigger early licensing bids from J&J/Otsuka (Spravato® synergies).

Investor View: LSE forums peg SVN-002 at "£150M+ standalone" vs. current £22M cap (undervalued 10x). Full pipeline rNPV ~£200-300M per Substack analysis.

Upside/Downside: Success lifts SVNS 3-5x; failure caps at £20-30M (tech platform residual).

Note the AI values failure at more than current Market Cap - if so a Zero risk investment proposition, especially after the out licensing of SVN001 and assuming the Company does not license 002 but retains to run into 2029, Companies stated aim is to license 002.

Valuation of SVN-002SVN-002, Solvonis Therapeutics' (LSE:SVNS) Phase 2b-ready esketamine oral thin film (OTF) for moderate-to-severe alcohol use disorder (AUD) in the U.S., is valued primarily through licensing potential rather than standalone sales, given Solvonis' strategy of out-licensing via PharmaVentures. As of October 2, 2025, no public trading value exists (SVNS market cap ~£22.6M reflects the full pipeline), but analyst and advisor estimates provide a clear picture. This is speculative, based on risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) models, comparables, and market forecasts—not financial advice.Key Valuation DriversDevelopment Stage: Post-Phase 1, IND H1 2026, Phase 2b topline 2027 (505(b)(2) pathway referencing Spravato® accelerates to potential 2029 approval). Success probability: ~16% Phase 2-to-3 advancement, ~5-10% overall approval for CNS/addiction assets.

Market Opportunity: U.S. AUD affects ~14M adults; total AUD treatment market ~USD 1.37B in 2025, growing at 6.6% CAGR to USD 1.88B by 2030 (North America ~46% share). SVN-002 targets 10-20% via OTF + therapy (improved compliance over nasal Spravato®; ~$500M-$1B peak sales potential).

Differentiation: Patent-pending OTF reduces misuse; psychosocial integration boosts efficacy (e.g., Awakn data: 2x sobriety rates). Bundling with SVN-001 could add premium.

Risks: Dissociation/addiction side effects; competition (naltrexone, acamprosate); Phase 2b failure could zero value.

Estimated Value BreakdownBased on PharmaVentures' benchmarks (from July 2025 investor report) and rNPV (10% discount rate, 5-10% success odds), here's the projected value:Valuation Metric

Estimate

Rationale & Comps

Licensing Deal Value (Upfront + Milestones)

£150M

PharmaVentures' direct estimate for SVN-002; aligns with mid-stage CNS repurposing (e.g., Otsuka's $400M Lyndra AUD deal, 2024). Includes £30-50M upfront, £100M milestones. PTSD expansion could add £50M.

Risk-Adjusted NPV (rNPV)

£50-75M

30-50% of headline value post-risk adjustment; factors 2027 data, 2029 launch. Comparable: Awakn's pre-acquisition ketamine-AUD assets valued £3-5M (early-stage), scaled up for Phase 2b + U.S. focus.

Royalties (Post-Approval)

10-15% of sales (£50-150M NPV)

Standard for out-licensing; assumes $500M peak U.S. sales at 12% royalty. Mirrors Spravato® royalties (J&J: ~$2.5B peak).

Total Potential Value (Deal + Royalties)

£200-250M

Bull case if bundled with SVN-001 (Q4 2025 talks); supports analyst targets (e.g., 1.6p/share, +789% from 0.34p, implying £100M+ pipeline value).

CONT ...

Part 2.

Projected Share Price Scenarios, Analysts and investor commentary suggest strong upside potential, with one consensus forecast implying a +433% rise to 1.60 GBX (from current levels). LSE forums and sector comps point to a 5–10x re-rating on deal announcement, as the current £22M cap undervalues SVN-001's standalone worth (£150M+ based on PharmaVentures' benchmarks).Here's a breakdown of likely post-deal price ranges, based on deal size assumptions and historical biotech precedents (e.g., 20–50% initial pops on Phase 3 licensing news, scaling to 3–6x on full validation):Scenario

Assumed Deal Value (Upfront + Near-Term Milestones)

Projected Market Cap

Estimated Share Price (GBX)

Key Drivers & Comps

Base Case (Conservative: Modest Upfront, EU-Focused Partner)

£50–80M

£70–100M

1.10–1.56

20–30% immediate spike on RNS, then stabilization. Aligns with smaller CNS deals (e.g., Indivior's £100M AUD acquisitions). Cash runway to mid-2026 extended, reducing dilution fears.

Bull Case (Optimistic: £150M+ Total, Big Pharma Partner)

£100–150M

£120–170M

1.88–2.66

3–5x re-rating, per forum hype and +433% analyst target. Mirrors J&J/BMS neuropsych buys (e.g., $14B Karuna deal scaled down). SVN-002 bundling could add £50M+ premium.

Moonshot (Transformational: Full Pipeline License or Acquisition)

£200M+ (incl. Royalties)

£200M+

3.13+

6–10x surge if bundled with SVN-002/PTSD assets. Comparable to Awakn's pre-acquisition valuation; positions SVNS as takeover bait (e.g., Lundbeck/Otsuka interest).

Rationale for Projections:Valuation Multiple: Current EV ~£18M (low cash burn). A £100M deal could justify a 5–7x multiple on headline value, per 2025 biotech norms (e.g., Phase 3 assets trading at 1–2x peak sales potential; SVN-001's 86% sobriety data implies £500M+ NPV).

Historical Precedents: Mid-stage AUD/CNS licensing (e.g., Otsuka's $400M Lyndra deal) often yields 200–500% pops. SVNS' penny-stock status amplifies volatility—e.g., 66% YTD gain on acquisition news alone.

Investor Sentiment: LSE chat buzz emphasizes "undervalued at £24M" vs. £150–200M comps, with calls for £1–2 GBX on Q4 close. No bearish downgrades; classified as "Momentum Trap" but with high beta (1.94).

Risks to Upside: Deal delays, weak terms (

Checking the latest available details from the September 30, 2025, Proactive interview and related company updates, CEO Anthony Tennyson explicitly stated that Solvonis aims to complete the out-licensing deal for SVN-001 in Q4 2025, with active discussions ongoing with the four pharmaceutical companies via PharmaVentures.

Excluded Others: Novartis (psychedelics interest but oncology-heavy), AstraZeneca (CNS deprioritized), Pfizer (oncology pivot post-Seagen), and Sun Pharma (generics-focused, less AUD) were considered but ranked lower due to weaker strategic fit or limited ketamine/addiction focus.

PharmaVentures’ Network: Their deal history strongly favors Janssen, Lundbeck, and Otsuka, with BMS and Indivior as logical U.K./CNS players.

Market Dynamics: The AUD market’s growth and SVN-001’s Phase 3 status attract firms with existing neuropsych portfolios needing high-efficacy assets. Comparable deals (e.g., J&J’s $1B+ neuropsych buys) support this range.

Market Makers seem to have caused some volume by dropping the price early doors yesterday.

Main reason for that is the RNS said that losses had increased.

The underlying reasons behind this was the Awakn CEO had taken the CEO in GPL that then changed name into Solvonis, they cut all overheads and sold off the old Polymer business, this showed a very low base line of costs.

The next 6 months figures had the Awakn cost base overlayed and this shows an increase.

For those researched and following the story it is common sense, the cash at Bank figure explains everything is progressing as it should.

For the market makers it presents an opportunity to shake the traders and new holders out of position and create some volume for themselves.

The CEO did a proactive interview yesterday and informed they are in discussions with FOUR pharmas to License SVN001 in Q$ 2025 and will then be taking SVN002 to the USA for licensing under its phase 2b trial in 2026.

With a market cap of around £24 million as of late September 2025, Solvonis is undervalued relative to peers in the neuropsychiatric space (e.g., similar mid-stage assets have fetched £150-200 million in licensing deals). The company is actively partnering with advisors like PharmaVentures to explore licensing or out-licensing opportunities, positioning it as an attractive acquisition target for larger pharma firms seeking to expand in high-unmet-need CNS (central nervous system) areas.

Cambs Blue, no one will look down on you for giving up so early or easily.

"Selling" or games being played?

I don't see a lot of selling, I'm seeing strategically placed trades, MM's moving stock to one another the other week, people walking in and out and back in, but physical selling in large numbers, i'm not seeing that.

Now if you had said there is a lot of accumulation going on, I would clap you on the back and say yes, small trades being bundled up into larger buys, then yes I am seeing that.

It's the age old story of someone wants what someone else has, how do I convince them that they dont want it, without letting them know that I want it?

This literally needed 2 things confirmed.

1. Cashflow still being tightly monitored.

2. Licensing deal still on the table

1a cashflow is amazingly well held for a multi discipline pharma.

2a Licensing deal confirmed as licensing deals.

Expecting the market to respond positively to that!

1. Does it have cash - yes £1.7m

2.Does it have pipeline - Multiple projects and Partnering Opportunities i.e not a singular one horse race!

Great news for them if they want SVN001 as well as SVN002, not so good for J & J who own Spravato!

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AZN/azn-harmonises-listing-structure/17252351

Want to see this hit and hold 0.43p

Once it goes over 0.52p with volume on its tail i.e on the cusp of news it should flow back over 1p and then depending upon the first licensing deal and announcement of future plans ( with that level of funding to take them there ) it could get a little bit silly!

There are some other interesting trials with Ketamin about.

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/15/2/e092504

Note that no 9 is Celia Morgan at Exeter ( wrote the Kare and More - Kare manuals.

No 10 is Brendan Clifford at Imperial College. ( Where Professor Nutt resides )

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40850924/ Nicky Mehtani UCSF.

Looking at the Epidemiology of methamphetamine use disorder and HIV risks, running on a similar treatment pattern of 3 treatments plus seven talking therapies, interestingly also called Kare, but nothing to do with our Phase 2 test.

Https://audioboom.com/posts/8783744-sunday-roast-featuring-paul-mathieson-ceo-of-amazing-ai-and-bill-milne-murali-arikara-of-racana

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