RE: 2p13 Nov 2025 09:37
Valuations.
1.6p is circa £100m that is not a lot for a decent early stage Pharma listed in the USA, this is very decent but its UK listed at the moment.
Short term - 1 - 1.6p is what posters and one broker valuation have preprogrammed into their posts, these types of posts seem to set the general consensus for PI's, it doesn't make them right, broker valuations rarely are, I've seen S.p's shoot over and under, can't remember one that nailed it?
Dennis Purcell and Anthony Tennyson - range their valuations from quite lowly 001 prices then flip that into peer valuations of just over a $billion.
As always when you are selling something it depends how desperate the buyer(s) get to own you.
They are building Quantum into the pipeline, slowed down on the progression of 001 being a rush sell and advised the market and everyone listening that they are fully funded until 2027 i.e pay the money or watch as they develop it themselves into 2028-29 and reap all the rewards themselves.
Waiting for Wuxi App Tec to Bridge the data to Solvonis, maybe looking at a deeper bridge with more data?
Whilst at the same time accelerating SVN 014 PTSD into pre clinical trial with a view to enter phase one in 2026 (?) and also accelerating work on Prof David Nuts Three Pillars strategy.
If you think of a stretched out Slinky toy and attribute the pipeline into this shape, it looks to me like they are relaxing it slightly so that the lead programmes aren't over stretching it any more and it is reforming into a relaxed and much more solid state, funded not just by the London Capital markets as Anthony Tennyson suggested in his USA soft launch podcast with Water Tower Research but more continued support from their Cornerstone investors of Layman, Nelson & Potts who have ensured they can go to America in December and present at Mar a Lago and possibly NYBio? in a very relaxed and fully funded manner to promote and listen to feedback.
So is it worth 1.6p now today - NO, it's £20+ million.
Add in clarification on 001, Bridge 002 and put 014 on the map, confirm the USA interest and plan the listing, i.e consolidate the number of shares in issue which will be the sign to look for, put some meat on the bones for three pillars and they would be looking at serious money imo.
Of course is another pharma decides it needs to control 001/002/014 then make your own number up because they probably won't be the only one to throw their hat in the ring and anyone offering 1.6p (£100m) would be waved away, with 001 and 002 confirmed in phase 3 and phase 2b it would be multiples of that.
Spravato does $1.2BN+ per annum, 2027/28 $3.5bn targeted, put a USA P.E. valuation on that of 15 ( J&J's, or the industry average of 26 ) and listen to Anthony Tennyson saying that 002 will out perform Spravato by multiples due to AUD being a larger unmet need that untreated depression.
Is that then worth 10p? i.e £680m - would look cheap wouldn't it?