FTSE 350 Review: Bank shares set to make money4 Feb 2023 13:14
The interesting feature of the UK banking market is the concentration of lenders with large market shares in the UK residential market. By some measures, Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) is the largest residential lender, with 18 per cent of the UK market. Its earnings, along with the rest of the high-street titans, have been on an upgrade cycle over the course of the past year – for UK banks those forecast upgrades amount to as much as 20 per cent year on year. However, share prices for the sector, with some exceptions, have not kept pace with the predictions.
This reflects negative market conditions towards the end of 2022, and also the time lag between interest rate rises and the benefit that banks accrue from them. On average, it takes roughly 12 months for higher rates to feed through to better net interest margins as borrowers refinance their debts once existing deals expire. Lloyds should get there eventually, but rival NatWest (NWG) has demonstrated a few structural advantages that have led investors to favour the shares. The company, after mammoth restructuring, has managed to lower its cost base faster than most of its rivals and has excess capital ready to return to shareholders when the conditions favour it. Broker Berenberg reckons NatWest can afford annual capital returns of approximately 15 per cent.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/02/02/ftse-350-review-bank-shares-set-to-make-money/