The shares brokers are backing this year31 Jan 2023 16:07
‘Goldilocks’ scenario?
Current consensus estimates are for Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) to achieve a return on tangible equity (ROTE) of around 13 per cent for 2022, rising to 14 per cent this year. NatWest (NWG) ROTE is forecast to grow from just under 12 per cent to 15 per cent.
“When I started in this business 30-odd years ago, if a bank was delivering 15 per cent ROTE it would trade at 1.5 times book value.”
Yet Barclays (BARC), Lloyds and NatWest currently trade at below book value, which suggests the market expects a fairly severe recession, leading to sizeable loan book impairments, according to Lee. However, he said such fears are misplaced, given the continued strength of labour markets. In almost every recession since the second world war, unemployment rates have increased to around 6 per cent, he noted. The UK’s unemployment rate currently stands at 3.7 per cent and there are more than 1.1mn job vacancies, according to the Office for National Statistics.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/01/27/the-shares-brokers-are-backing-this-year/