Member Info for Linz22

All buys here this morning.

I'd expect CLON to be a leaky ship. Something about to pop..?

Oh, yes. Thanks for re=posting that B+.

It was, in fact, a reply to a post by Jinvestsus, a new investor who says he doesn't know much about supercapacitors, per se, but made some very shrewd points about business plan, revenue and margins. Such that, I'm re-posting his post from ADVFN:

Jinvestsus 20 Mar '25 - 16:11 - 6203 of 6203

I like CAP-XX and bought in this week around 0.135. It is a big gamble, but with a defined downside (insolvency) but huge potential upside. If they can turn a profit within the next 2 years then this will happily sit on the books for the next 2+ years while this (potentially) blows up. Otherwise, if they cannot make the current strategy work I don't know how this business will ever become profitable.

They make ~30% profit margin and have base costs around A$3.5m at the moment. Base costs are significantly down on prior years and must be getting towards a floor level. This means they will have to hit around A$10-15m revenue to break even (depending on how base costs grow with added capacity needed to expand revenue). For a company that has bounced between A$3-A$5m revenue for just under 20 years, this is a big ask. The game changer of course is the new management team, who (from watching recent AGM / results) seem impressive, and the new focus on revenue growth. The previous focus on licensing appears to have led to costly lawsuits that wiped out any generated revenue.

Previously, the business side of things (in contrast to the technological) does not seem to have been well run (e.g. notes since 2023 on improvements to CRM, internal systems, supply chain automation). Now it looks to be well run, and with all lawsuits settled. It's an interesting opportunity in which all the groundwork (R&D infrastructure and institutional knowledge, IP) has essentially been paid for by other people (sorry LTHs) and is ripe to be exploited by new management. On the downside, the new management has been in since 2023 and HY2025 shows only 6.8% revenue growth year-on-year, which is nowhere near what is necessary. Also, I do not know much about supercapacitors, and I worry there is something fundamentally problematic with their product which limits its sales potential. HY2025 was not particularly encouraging, but the new team have not had long and so there is still plenty of scope for the groundwork they have been laying to bear fruit (e.g. SCHURTER, 60% revenue growth for first month of 2025).

Personally, I think the comments around 10-bagging this year are completely insane. We're looking at closer to 2 years for breakeven. However IF their revenue strategy bears fruit, there is no limit on where they can go in the growing supercapacitor sector (~$2.3bn 2025, estimated $28bn in 2032). At $60m revenue (maybe this takes 4-5 years?) they are around A$12-5m profit. At 29x PE for electronics companies this is ~23-29x the current market cap of £7.5m. But for sure, this is a long term hold with a couple of high-risk years a

Yes, better to hold at these levels to await the dropping of such a news release.

We know already this is a tightly run ship , so best not to get giddy in an attempt to make a few quid trading in the recent price volatility..

Great insight, thanks.

You'd have to say they're otherwise running a tight ship here, with never an inkling of any price movement prior to the dropping of the recent news releases.

Bodes well in terms of a reputable and professionally run enterprise, which makes a refreshing change from so many other dodgy outfits found on AIM these days...

But, a profit's a profit, so each to their own..

Right now, though, better to be 'balls deep', imho...

The sells at these levels must be by small margin day traders, which is always an inevitability.

But, if you sell now at 0.126 and the SP closes at 0.15, or more , that's not a good trade.

Going simply by the fundamentals, and future potential, it doesn't make sense selling at these prices.

Collectively, all the recent news add up to a seemingly very big deal.

We should really all be piling in here yet the SP remains around placing price and, alarmingly, the constant sells persist.

Seems too good to be true. What am I missing here..?

Q&A response in the recent presentation to any future raisings was, 'none anticipated in the next calendar year,' and that current cash balance was some AUD 5.2m.

Best case scenario would be news of a defence contract..

The investment case at these prices seems too good to be true..

I feel there's been too much focus on the CFO's comment on 'material uncertainties' going forward, according to the company's future 'Baseline Forecast', which, while not necessarily negative, is most certainly very cautious.

The following appended details (Note 2, Going Concern) offers the glass-half-full perspective,:

'The Board considers that the Upside Forecast represents a reasonable estimate of the Group's potential future performance.'

'With the income reflected in the Upside Forecast, cash resources would be expected to last beyond 31 March 2026.'

Time to top up at these prices..?

A godsend of a buying opportunity, then..?