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All agree but dont forget THG s not a highly debted businesses. It has quite a low gearing so sensitivity to interest rates within itself is very low and zilch compared to the interest rate sensivity of its customers

They did very well from WW2 also

That was your add on though not rothchilds for the avoidance of doubt

Sorry to hear that canary but just be patient so.long as you isn't buy at IPO or above 250p to 300p you will be fine. If you didnt then yiu bought at overhype territory but I've no idea where you bought

Oxford agree with whispers but we are infact opposite way round to what you call a "rise". Price crashed and is still in crash territory based on a less that net asset value ( ie we are priced on on asset strip insovent basis) on a short attack while fundamentals and hitting ipo targets were delivered. If s liquidator did a statement of affairs then it would be higher than today's value with cash stock and brands

This as I see is simply more recovering from a massive short and distort smear based whisper and press gossip attack overshoot and its only had a mere blip of a recovery from that so far

Spot on SP. Magnitude of gap on several publicly avaiable comparators eg revenue multiplier and EBiT multiplier are 10x undervalued.

Not an opinion just publicly available facts

It's an insane opportunity like the energy stocks were 24 months ago where some of us made a killing.

Rothschild...always "buy when blood on the streets" then wait

Ebit multipmier covered above

The revenue multiplier method is certainly way off somewhere between 5 to 15 times. Based in recent deal or peers

FcF discount method none of us have seen the FCF numbers so anyone's guess where the analyst get their bent numbers from

NAV valuation. Worst case method used for insolvency. We are bekow this kevel the method (cash stock and brands acquired) so looks stupid valuation at minute

Any angle I take on this value seems way way off.

Still would never want to.acerkr anything less than 250 maybe 3 quid but would like this rerate to play out beforw MM makes his move but clock is ticking for him.

Oke
I gott the 14x EBIT from retail sector uk. average so its a bit shallow thinking as it includes alot of basket case bricks and mortar declining businesses

I would guess high growth retail in the all.share index would hare would be a higher average. I'll see if I.can isolate it as a group mutiple or do a build of it from peer read across

But them the UK is miles behind US average

I'm not sure ste2000 rejects anything hard

He just needs to.orove he can do what a CEO dues and msje investors in him and his business money. So far he's done it for himself but he's done te opposite to investors.

He really needs to prove himself. A low ball offer would be the end of him. He would become un investable if that happened after the last year and a bit

Iike a few on here I have no respect for MM yet.

Any fool in the land can take 1 pound of investment and turn it into 3 pence on a spectacularly short time. Something that must be approaching a record failure.

He has a huge task to prove he is respected as a CEO and convert that 1 pund into at least 1.1 pounds. I doubt he has the skills.

He has been a spectacular failure so far, probably on of the worst CEOs on LSE and has alot to do to earn the trust of investors now and in future to show he can be trusted to do what his prime task is...create a return!
...but....

I'm betting on him not doing that as he really could not do a poorer job other than going bust which clealy wont happen, altough the business is valued less than veing asset stripped and liquidated

I think it's a very sound bet though given this vslustion that it has way overshot and recovering that 3 pence to at least 12 pence or more will be done which I think even he can manage quite easily

He has made many howlers some shockers for a man in his position.

But I think it's an easy bet now to say he can reduce his value destruction from 97% to 80% or less

Ste missed out a major big what if we should all be worried about its impact on THG

It'd not whey as that's dropping

He would be getting very unpleasant visit from me and I'd expect many others and the FCA if he tries to steal this from us at anything less than 200p.

I want my share of some of the future growth we are on the cusp of not here a here right now at the bottom close to asset strip value

It really won't happen at a small premium to balance sheet asset strip, basically zero offered for the business

He may offer very soon I agree as he now has all the backers and deep pockets lined up [him chair sofina Quatar) he is up to something as he and chair have totally checked out from any investor relations activity whatsoever and left the shorts in control [cahoots maybe. No chairman's visibility, no analyst calls, no or bate minimum rns announcing ingenuity wins. Nothing, zilch silence. Total opposite of what a CEO normally would be doing.

He has also got all his inner circle lined up and primed [ chair, family, himself, charity, employees and debt lenders]

Business performance is looking good future events better

This is all set up about to pop offer coming in shortly.

Best time to strike is now

It's all about the price now

We are way below balance sheet asset strip value at moment cash stock debtors infrastructure and brands) which is used to value an insolvent business so the upside from here to FCF fwd view to EBIt multiplier model to revenue multiplier vs now orders of magnitude

He cant take all that upside off the table to protect his golden share expiry it would just not happen without an offer north of 200 to 220p. I think he had repoeted himself 250p opens the door.

Oke how could he get away with a low ball offer like that.

He will have as CEO destroyed value for virtually every II and PI. He is oaid by us and trusted to create value. Thats his job. His is credibility would be in tatters and he would never be trusted with an listed business again denying him.a US 5 year IPO exit.

He would face the fury of investors who were denied 170p or if may have been much higher in may

We would a rather wait to 2024 rather he steal the spoils for himself. The glory moment of positive FCF is almost upon us.

Just can't see its a starter unless he gives a higher multiple to reflect some of the future growth IIs and PIs all bought into in his offer price.

A low ball multiplier ie sector average 14 includes a whole load if struggling high street retailers so would not be applicable. It wi.need to be higher to factor in some fwds growth

It's clearly a coordunated attack.its obvious

1. How can analysts do from 1400p to 40p months ie a 97% reduction when the business gas actually ouperforned IPO targets and done well. What's wrong with these Analysts?
2. The timings of these announcements we too.close and coordinated with the IIs short.positions
3. The newspapers(time) raking an obsurd negative spiln on everything also coordinated with shorts eg when Moulding made a charitable gift of his own shares rhe papers lied and said this was director dumping stock. No.it wasnt. . This continued relentlessly

It's so.obvious. look beyond THG , the FCA must conduct an investigation into.the banks as I can't see the city coming out of this welll as a preferred market for future IPOs

Ignore that it got posted mid type

Moulding really has got to prove he can create shareholder value. He's pretty much destroyed it for most who invested their money in him. I'm sure he wants to prove he can do this as a CEO

He needs to show he can do what he's employed to do as CEO and deliver value or he's written off by he financial markets
Hes done ok himself out of softback and money from pilublic shareholders at IPO but so far he hasn't proved he can deliver them a return

To teal the shares in 2023 along with his chair at the the bottom and les than the 170 he denied shatelders and since which he said himself said THG has improved would open him to risks of fraud breach of fiducuary duty, trashed reputation in global markets, a man not to be trusted with your money etc etc

I.just don't think hes that sort of bloke. He's philip green or maxwell.

...but he still.needs to prove himself as a CEO looking after investors money and creating value

O still think 220 to 250 or we wait till things imorove and so what if he lises.

Then its no deal. Almost all PIs would not accept anything unless higher than 179p.

MM gas a real problem I'm theat fir has destroyed sgarehdwe value fir nearly every investor.
Ti do a steal at less than 160p when he said it undervalued the business and things have inkroved a

Then of course there are 2 more lenses on this...

1. The revenue multiplier model which is reficulously cheap even by recent deals in same sector at 5 tines revenue vs THG 0.3 tines. Plus the revenue multiplier vs other global businesses in same sector. I would hold back on this though given THG aren't yet converting this to cash but even still it's way undervalued

2. Discounted FCF model which the brokers are using but this doesn't work well for a business it it's high cash spend growth phase which we are still in. Even then if this gets FCF neutral in 2023 then 100m in 2025 and let's say its stops there and doesn't grow any more then 100m in perpetuity at a cost of capital discount rate of 10% puts value at 1bn or 70p. This is low balled though as it won't be 100m in perpetuity.

All 3 valuation lenses on this show it's undervalued and upside is 40% to 400%

All I think the EBIT multiplier is the farest compromise model.

The sensitivty on this is all down to 2 assumptions...

1. The first and biggest is the Ebit multiplier. 10 low balls it from a simple bit of google research but I sure we could go deeper into it. Raising it to 14 adds 70p to share price.

3. The margin uplift from either price Inc cost redn or whey. All directly flow to the bottom line. A 5% price Inc [assuming no customer loss] gives 110m or 40m GM contribution . I've no idea of price elasticity of demand but assume its low given stickiness and 5% isn't much given inflation over last year, this year and next 20% and competition are doing sanme A 200 staff redn gives circa top 10m. Add both that's 50m or 40p to share price. Thst ignores any whey upside

So in total you say 120p i say 220p the difference being the above assumption sensivities

I'd rather wait to 2024 for corporate action if it gives materially more upside that a 12 month earlier 2023 give away if what you.say is true on base year. The unkown hete is how desoerate MM gets with his golden share "timebomb" but that cant be the driver for low shareholder value creation through a sub optimal deal. Moulding desperately needs to prove he can create shareholders value not destroy ot as he has done it more than anything or he will be written off for any future listing even on US.

So many sensitivities and unknowns here but it will play out and even the modest prudent business valuation modellers with their excellent posts on here show a 100% upside

There will be a bid war from PE at some point given there 1trillion warchest of unollcated funds doing nothing. That cash has got to start earning for them soon! And that ignores the trillions in sovereign wealth funds. And where is the cheapest global valuation market at the moment...uk and specifically uk retail!