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The margin low balls what coukd be done with staff cuts drive increases and whey deflation

Great debate chaps
I would challenge the numbers on 3 bases...

1. Using 2023 as a base year is fkawed. It's a recovery year with 2024/5 forecast by BoE to be returned to stability. To use 2023 and a low end multiple ignores growth into 2024 and takes the worst of all scenarios including surpressed margin

2. The EBIT multiplier is low. Average UK retail is 14.9 and ecommerce and beauty retail higher still. Its a high level multiplier without taking non UK peers whichlook higher still

3. MM can't go back on his word that 170p undervalued it especially since then things haven't got worse. Infact they have got better to THG backed up by his comment that the current conditions favour THG. That would be some U turn he could not defend it. It would be completely blown credibility. Still he woukd have destroyed value for almost all shareholders.

What were the staff and charity shares bought and gifted at. Don't forget they are all tied up in this. The ypposed cliff edge is his golden share but I'm not sure its the only key control point people are stating it is. Even without it via familiarly friends charities close IIs and staff he still can effect a controlling interest without the golden share??

My valuation ...it needs to be more forward than 2023 given revenue and margin growth] is...

2.5bn at 8-9% margin at ebit multiplier 14= around 2 quid 220p topside at 9% margin

That's what I've always had in my mind

Come on ladies put the handbags away this isn't ADVFN!

Golden I though that 150k tonnes was destined for different markets in aftrica

2phevs

Systems integration would be a nigtmare

I think we are way way off the word greedy yet. Start getting nearer IPO price then greed might be discussed but at 90% below i think its ridiculous to think about greed at the moment

This is going to rocket. The shorts need about half the free float ie shares in PI hands to exit!!! That's crazy they have completely overplayed this given the softback shares are now no longer available dor them to exit. Just think about it.

Add ontop MM and Quatar plus other long term PIs coming all will all be wanting the same free float shortly.

This is going to go mad just watch. No idea where we will end up bit it will be very interesting from here now THG is derisked performance wise and narrative has swung.

To be honest I'd be very disappointed if circa 200p was my exit level. That still only puts TSG value at 1/5 of otherer recent deals for far smaller less scaleable businesses

The free float which has been shorted to death in no way extrapolates to the value of controlling the whole business. MM and the IIs all know this

Fair value is much higher that 200p.

.....but when you run the number even on approximates its so obvious shorters got into a real problem

Thank god softback didn't try an.open market exit and they are now. Locked away

Got to say 2phevs tgat was a smart bit of thinking on the shorts. Great insight there on an angle that hadn't occurred to me

The value of THG isn't, never was nor will be an extrapolation of the irrationally played 15% free float

Or they create a successful fear campaign to unseat the free float ?

Yes all remaining IIs and good % of PIs now sticky. I hope. If true its a smaller scale gamestop situation

Actually it's even worse than that for the shorters as they there wi be new long term holders after sone of the non sticky 10 also as this is in for good year end plus MBO in short term long term holders coming in. Wow haha got en. Wait for the FUD carpet bombing B52s launching tomorrow. Bunker down lock in tight and destroy them.

If im right and getting your drift here chaps then free float approx 15%. Non sticky free float assume 10% (the other sticky 5% are in for the MBO or 200p plus like me and I'm a large holder)

So for shorts to close would need 5o% of the non sticky free float to sell.

I see what you mean how the hell are they going to buy their short closure stock unless the do a native feer driven crash or the price rockets to.unseat 5% of the non sticky 10%

Wow this is exciting you've really opened an angle up here 2pevs that hadn't occurred to me.

Shorts of 5% on a free float of 15% with the good news rolling here now and likely MBO soon is a stupid position for them but could be true intergalactically great for us. Its a massive high risk for them now theyve overplayed it and should of exited on way down and not got too greedy.

Surely better things out there to short

Well they need to wack up the price yo create vume ....the shorters can then pay us for their exits. Payback time

How do these get any credibility when they are so all.over the place.....or are they like alot of analysts and writing any rubbish that supports their investment position?

Aren't they short.

Undepromise overdeliver ather him range it and firm up to the upside for impact

Hosai

The signs are Al there in fashing strobe. The biggy is the number