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Look at the pattern 1544 and 1522 repeats it's not PI pattern this. Looks like shorts closing to me

Oke did youbmean 16x?

3.2bn!

That bloody 14x again oke. I need to get underneath this. I suspect we are way underpricing at 14x. I want to check out a subset of more relevant peers from the FTSE retail 14x average. All the valuation work posters have done are sensitive to its uncertainty more than any other input varable. Its a number which none of us have kicked the tyres on but we could be 50% wrong on

Those margin calls will be hurting now. Even the back to back buy to close and sell to roll shorts will hurt evert time....but they've made good money so they aren't burning. Surprised exit volume not higher given they are half the free float approx or have we seen a good chunk and now seeing it again

Thanks Gold

Just wanted to assure we are in growth markets across all 3 dimensions of product, geography and channel. Most strategies usually focus on exclusive market or product but THG is doing all 3 at once which is higher risk but comes with bigger rewards and since IPO are smashing it and are proving it.

Big announcements on ingenuity would br the final piece. Moulding is 100% proven to be throttling back news flow so he keeps the value post possible MBO rather than announce it and give value to current shareholders he will then have to pay firr...so I beleive it is much better than we are being told....especially on ingenuity

I wanted to take a longer term view and another angle not just based on short term MBO , showing all outcomes from here (baring nuclear war) are very positive on risk reward basis and valuation model to 2026 is very compelling

I've done 2 big top ups in last 24 hours

Most of the focus on the debate is on near term and MBO valuations. I elwanted to take a longer view to try to get my head round it. Comments appreciated

This year to last is a blip year for CAGR as covid online boom cooled off a but but the CAGRs are have strong concensus from several reports ive read

Not sure I want this MBO now even at 250p.

I'd rather have my share of the 2026 pie rather than MM get.it from MBO to earn out in 4 to 5 years

...but 65p is a bargain right now

Overall CGR mix of product growth and channel mix to online growth gives CAGR in excess of 10% which is very healthy

Looking further out for THG by 2026 this would put THG revenues in region of 3.5bn excluding geographical market expansion already invested and ingenuity growth so should be at least 4 to 5bn at 9% margin ebit 350m to 450m at 14 times valuation for sector (which is low as includes basket case struggling high street retailers) multiple 5.5bn to 6.3bn or 6 to 7 times now or 450p to 630p per share.

I've been conservative on new geographies and ingenuity and future growth beyond 2026 and a flat ebit muliplier of 14 rather than factoring in sone fwd view for growth business

Market CAGR

Protein health 8%

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/protein-supplements-market

Market CAGR

Beauty 7%

https://www.oberlo.co.uk/statistics/global-ecommerce-sales-growth

Online channel

9% online pa in UK fwd to 2026. All reports I've read pretty much agree

https://www.oberlo.co.uk/statistics/global-ecommerce-sales-growth

Maybe....lots of 4412 batches going through which isn't PI trade pattern

Be good to get one of our colleagues L2 insights

Looks like II buying given trade size. I don't have L2 can anyone advise on ant trade being worked in background or how the book is looking

Nor shorts buying to close positions Oke?

Dont fret just let this play out it will be good and a very derisked play

A combination if shorts exiting and longs entering and privatisation is the storm we are looking for. Nothing in life certainly odds on probability. Even if not the trading should be strong.

The difference here though as said many times is shorts have to exit from a sticky v small free float as the IIs are now sticky too therefore the shorts can only be exited from over half the free float so the effect will be dramatic on shareprice especially if triggered in a short time period by a capital event.

It's very very different to a listed business where the free float is large. The opposite effect of shorts loading over the last year will happen as they unload. Maybe even more give the much reduced freefloat.

The small freefloat situation along with the lack of any need to do a rights issue and all the aggro abd cost in managing a listing makes the fact we are listed at all totally bizarre. In all but name this is treated like an unlisted business now. MM knows us OIs won't be with him much longer as he is so obviously planning the MBO.

The small sticky free float share price does not make any sense when valuing the other 85% if the business hence the board rejecting 170p for 100% of the business even when the 15% free float is lower. Its the IIs who set the orice here not the tiny free float. They are both very disconnected given the large difference in size if the two and the free float has been gamed to death

Oh looks free speach police just turned up. Hello.....

Knowbody

Assumed I'm from UK? Another freedom of choice and speech suppressor . Maybe North Korea would suite you more if you prefer suppression.

No way do not trust macron the rothschild puppet has been given orders by his paymasters to avpid energy outages in Germany and France this winter crippling the EU industries and hurting rothschilds interests. This isn't about ukraine.

If we the west rokers talks now putin still has a reasonable hand and will request UN recognise annexation of crimera and Donbas

The war should be given a good run into.winter which will cause unequipped putins conscript divisions to capitulate surrender deseet or or revolt. Thats the point putin will open talks when he is desperate.

Putin support is folding let it play out a bit longer

When talks start keep macron and his corrupt greasy conflicted negotiators well away from it.

Modi should lead this

Ste why would jt?

Its no difference than today other than putting an arms length commercial services agreement on place.

He called it right last time he must have known something got a good source. I'm sceptical but how did he get it spot on last time?