Member Info for LeMajor

A very gracious gesture. DW will be grateful for the help, I'm sure. Less than 6 weeks, but could be anytime now. I think I'll hold for a few more weekends.

Muscat is obviously well researched to know about the BoA and Galp, and Rebates - but selective memory applies here - as Brom said, he's only interested in the edited bits that support his mischief. If anyone is that gullible, beware that the loan in question is only a "bridging loan" secured against tax credits, The tax credits are worth $3M more than the loan, so any interest due will be more than covered. As for Galp, I'm not sure it still exists, although a 2021 expiry probably means DW could get a discount, even if it was proved we still had a liability (we are well under the threshold at present).

Another reason that a combined HRZ is unlikely at present, is that the FO bidder interested in the HRZ would be giving us cash for the Conventional, which will be used to prove, and subsequently boost the price for the HRZ (thus cutting off their nose, to spite their face). Better to have a clean deal on conventional, and start the HRZ FO deal with no baggage.
As for the "consolidation" you keep bringing up, DW has already ruled it out. Any company looking to acquire our leases will not be interested in buying our shares (consolidated or not) - they will just go for leases and royalties. The only companies interested in a consolidation of our shares would be institutional investors - who contribute nothing to the value of our oil, all they do is increase demand on shares which is only of short-term benefit, until they decide to sell (then wallop!).

Muscat, just a few weeks ago we were told that the current cash position is A$19.6M - and that is without several million US dollars in rebates from the State of Alaska. DW runs the company on fumes, so I recon we have a couple of years to go before we run out of cash at the current burn rate - unless he switches to chocolate digestives in the boardroom. .

I suspect that if we were likely to still have a long delay (say 4 weeks or more) then we would have had a "status bulletin" over the last week or so. As HRZ would add much more than 4 extra weeks, I am therefore discounting it as unlikely to be included in the current talks. Taking the flip-side then, I now expect the deal to be announced within 4 weeks, possibly imminently.
Pure speculation of course, I have been wrong many times but I'm sure DW will be aiming to give away as little as possible, but to gain as much cash as it needs to independently prove-up the HRZ so that we start the next FO from a much better plateau than the current deal.

During a Bed & ISA transaction there are usually a near "matching pair" often just above or just below the midpoint. So easy to camoflage a contra-transaction so it influences the naive punter.

Sometimes, no matter how many times it is said that Icewine2 was experimental, designed to gather data as much as to test the flow, there are still those that think it failed, because it did not deliver the result they wanted.
If you want to pickle some onions and you find a bottle you suspect contains the vinegar you need (but no label) - you must test it with litmus, or more likely just taste it.
If it is not vinegar, do you blame your taste buds and insist your doctor arranges for your tongue to be amputated?
No - you now know it contained apricot flavoured spring water, so the quest to find the vinegar is still on.
That is what exploration is all about, you make the best decision you can and if it does not work out the way you'd hoped, move on, use what you've learned and try something different next time.
The guys who make these decisions are experts, not magicians.

If RMP spiked to 24% on a $3m refund how would a $300m FO injection affect 88e?
100 times more cash.
13 times more shares. (100/13 = *8)
33% retention of conv. leases (100/(13*3) = *2.5)
Under 50% oil is conventional (2*100/(13*3) = *5)
So based on this over simplified and rounded off formula wa can look forward to 24%*5 = 120% spike.
Further assumptions - we could get more than $300m
Being in bed with a Tier1 could remove further CRs and so increase 2-fold (120% + 240%). 360% spike.
This is such a sentiment driven stock that any assumtion is highly speculative let alone a bucket-full of assumptions. All I'm sure about is the only way us UP - but when it will start and how long it will last and how high it will go, only hindsight will tell.

The other aspect is "who becomes the operator?". We could end up with a major taking over drilling on the leases they obtain, or we could enter a funding deal, where 88e is kept on as operator. DW may not have hit a commercial pocket of oil, but there have been no significant issues regarding the drilling operations - time and budget management has been well controlled and within budget - not a bad record.

BP, ENI, Exxon, Chevron, CoP, Anarkdo, Oil Search.......... who knows?
Maybe none of the above.
The delay might have nothing to do with 88e, and everything to do with timing of one or more other deals that the Tier1 partner has to tie down before it announces its own 3-year plan.
Until then we will languish between 0.75-0.8p. We might get a status update which could include data not related to the deal - but if all data is related, the deal could be a pretty big one - by the time we find out, we will be dealing in hindsight. Until then, patience is the only exercise we have.
We are halfway through Q2, so I believe that would be the "backstop" - but news could be as close as midnight tonight. YGIAGAM

Fully energised, the "8 weeks" is no more than a vague target derived from the "weeks not months" comment. DW has no obligation to meet that target. I for one think it would generate some sort of update, if by now DW knows whether the deal is just days away or that we are still weeks or months away from settlement. He is not obliged to make such an announcement, but as he likes to manage expectations of investors it would be in character for him do do so (unless our prospective partners have him trussed and gagged beyond reason). I think that "speculative" 8 week target concludes next week but all such targets arr elastic in the world of exploration and in the world of law - just look at Brexit, would you put money on 30th Oct? Even though an actual date has been mentione, I suspect most will take it with a pinch of salt. It does not mean that we should not set a target though.

WAaussie, you may not have long to wait - I'd be pleased to wake up with an update, maniana.
The "8 weeks " expires next week, but admittedly, it was deliberately "woolly" - so don't swallow any pills if it does not happen as we are in the final straight. I'm a bit dubious about your HRZ sale, by Q2 - must've missed that one (or are you being a bit provocative? :-) )
Depending on the size of the anticipated cash injection (£200M-£500M) we might go it alone with the HRZ, until we get some HC liquids in a Barrel or two. That alone will bring some extra bidders into the arena.
News on Yukon and 3D analysis will follow the FO in short order - so stand by for action as Troy Tempest might have said. "Anything can happen in the next 30 days" (or something like that).

To clarify, i meant they will want 100% of the oil field (leaes) under consideration - not neccessarily 100% of 88e.

When we get sold, the buyer will put a price on our oil fields. They will not care about the share price.
They will not be looking to get a 51% controlling interest - they will want 100% or nothing.

We've got 2D, Old Tech 3D and New Tech 3D, and a whole bunch of leases covered by No Seismic - so lots of scope for spending money. That's what explorers do - spend money and collect data.

Phrontist, we only know of 1 well, but if the FO is prepared to fund more (and we don't know yet) for the coming winter, we will need permits - AND depending where they want to drill, ESPECIALLY IF we need more 3D they will need to settle the deal pronto or run out of time for next season.
(I think you missed the "especially if" part in my original)
It is all speculative thinking anyway, we could find DW sells all 3 companies to Bex on Tuesday - we don't know what we don't know (sure I heard that before, somewhere?).

Lull before the storm. LTI's will, for the most part, wait it out. Those who can't handle the frustration have gone. The traders are waiting in the bushes for movement. The FO partner has probably worked out a deal and performed DD by ñow, even the legal stuff is probably complete. IMO, we are waiting on the FO partner to agree internally on the rate they spend allocated funds in conjunction with their other projects -and who will manage them. DW is just waiting for as much up-front cash he can get, so he can plan the next phase of drilling in the places not covered by the FO.
Lots of frustration at all levels - but permitting will have to start in Q3, so won't be long now, especially if we need more 3D before permitting.

I dare say, a broker might only agree to buying in chunks of 40-50 million at a time for a institution, and then at 25% above the sp on the day. Once hoovered up what they can, the next 50M might need an extra 15-25% to loosen the grip of a few more PI's. If the genuine buys were about 50M/day or more (then volume would be 100M-ish), the sp would have to rise (coz no-one is getting mine cheap).

Riv, I tend to agree with that. I think many believe DW has cried "wolf !" - I am sure this is not the case, as he is very prudent with the cash on hand - so it would be out of character to drill a hole unless be believed there was a high probability of success (as his expert consultants decree).

DW also likes to manage expectations by keeping us informed, which is why I believe we will get some intermediate status report any day soon, either that or the actual deal will be announced if all parties have by then, signed the contract.

I think news will come as soon as tonight or next 4 working days next week. It may just be a status update if there is a delay in the finished contract - that date will be dictated by the major party, when they are ready to sign.