Member Info for lejjb

Daave - all my best wishes to your pub, you and your family.

I’m not Daave (spelling?) but there is another factor that explains the rise.
If you look at a chart, you will see that the SP tried to break several times 72 since mid November, the first two waves ending as big pullbacks.
The third wave was a little more gradual and allowed for more accumulation of shares than the previous two times that were more abrupt rises, suggesting those were “bubble-like” rises that could petter out fast.
This last rise was a little slower, suggesting a bit more sustainability and gas in the tank left for a final push through 72p to where we are.

Jangho increasing its stake soon after it’s become clear things have stabilised for Cineworld supports the view that it’s interested in buying Cineworld, or in acquisition a controlling stake. Any REASONABLE thoughts please?

Broker1 - medium term, Brexit has little relevance for Cineworld. It sells long life food at high prices so even if its
Supplies for popcorn, ice cream and nachos are affected, consumers are less likely to stop their purchasing habits if the prices rise a little compared to a supermarket.

westwood747 - the markets have been properly mad since early November (when the vaccine was first announced) with much more seesawing upwards by comparison to the faster drop of Feb / March.
Taking into account the growth of movie streaming, the extra debts and the 10% dilution due to the warrants issued last month (after the vaccine announcement), we ought to expect the SP to be between 100 and 160 very very roughly.
The massive pullbacks since the mid-November rise were highly disproportionate . Even the psychological impact of the shambles of Brexit on most UK shares (except banking that is more clearly affected) has been inconsistent.
From a tech analysis POV, we have remained above the 200 sma (medium term bullishness) and are still just about closing most days above the 8ema, meaning that there are enough buyers to keep this share afloat.

£580m for Marston’s BREWING business. The value of the pub business is to be added on top, Covid or not.

typo, missing word: "third CANDLE of a "three white/green soldiers" bullish pattern"

This looks realistic (but by no means certain). The SP went over 80p twice on the 26 May and 8 June, with an increasing base line. That was when Marston's had not reopened yet. Now that we know that it is better placed than other pub chains to weather the crisis, and we are on the third of a "three white/green soldiers" bullish pattern, with healthy volume overall, and firmly above the 100 and 50 simple moving averages, a further solid rise seems likely.

sensetalka - your logic for a future mass sell-off makes perfect sense, and due to the bleak outlook for aviation in the near future, the valuation and forecasting rule books have gone out of the window.
The best way to address that is via technical analysis, i.e. using charts - I'd recommend using both daily and weekly time frames. Such charts help visualise market sentiment. What you need to look for is a sufficiently convincing turnaround. Don't ever try chasing for bottoms.

NOFEAR - you are one of the rare posters who have genuinely tried to help and who
are not idiots!

Daave,

Your question is perfectly reasonable. This BB (and most of the LSE.co.uk BBs, hence my being rarely here anymore) is a waste of time largely full of idiots who rarely share truly useful info. I’ve been conversing on Twitter with selected individuals for about a year now instead.

Market closes for the common trader at 16.29.59pm
However, some of the big boys have special rights to place trades afterwards - until when exactly is not clear but I’ve seen trades as late as 18.20 several times in the past.
However, the prices fluctuate wildly after 16.30, hence
the weird SP at those times. It’s likelu (but not 100% certain) that buys sells are determined by what’s above and below the median price just at close.
To complicate things further, the first after hours trade is an uncrossing trade (“UT”) which is a trade between market makers who sell / buy among each other to balance their books. So don’t think that it’s a party interested in buying or selling shares to make a profit or cut a loss: it is just a sort of “administrative” transaction.

Folks, it’s very dangerous to do this sort of thing. It makes you forget to stay grounded when / if the firm offers are declared.

BW - it’s when the bidder has amassed a large enough stake in the company.

No news that we know of has been released. We could speculate about market manipulation etc. but that's just speculation. Wait to see how the SP behaves as the call (starting in 1-2 min) unforlds, that will give a better of sense of investor sentiment.

The massive bounce from the initial drop shows the strength of the sentiment in favour of this company however. The 8ema on the daily has not been touched but we got relatively near it, then the SP bounced. I’ve scaled back in.

Dodgepot: you are avoiding the point that you had raised in the first place. You were claiming that the SP had soared straight upon the release of bad results (which I showed was incorrect, it went down first) to justify holding over the results release.

Based on the recent history of the company, it is dangerous to hold overnight before the release day, as there has historically been ample opportunity to buy back lower on the days that follow those results.

My apologies, on the 1st quarter results published on the 14 May, the SP "only" went down by approx 5%, then over the next two days down to about 2-3% more.

The SP went down by approx 20% on 13 Feb 2020, the day when the last set of results was released. Over the next few days, the SP decreased to go down by a further 15% approx.

Good job picking this, thank you.

Mr Cat - no mention of dividend = no change to the current position. So look in past RNSs to see if there was anything else than the "special dividend" of a few months back ("special" = it's a one off).

Look at the growth in profits, the way the business model fits the current covid situation, and whether the growth is mainly due to Covid or whether the business was already in a good place when Covid hit. Then look at a chart (probably daily) to see whether the SP is broadly in an uptrend. That should help you decide whether to invest or not.