Member Info for lejjb

Hi all.
Any views (with firm grounding, i.e. not empty words / wishful-thinking please) on WPP making an offer too please? After all, it was announced it was planning to create a division doing the same as what Ingenuity does, and it would save WPP a lot of hassle to buy a ready-made organisation like that. And WPP's business model is to grow through acquisitions...

US based traders get up early to match European stock market times, so anyone in the US who has been following THG closely and was considering buying has probably done so already.

No official dates have been published yet.

Whose deadline? Cineworld's or Cineplex's? And Cineworld filed its initial appeal submission months ago anyway.

You don't want an ascending triangle, and fortunately for you THG is not experiencing one. An ascending (vs flat top) triangle means that the SP risks crashing down at any time.

We now have a flat top bullish triangle, it is no longer a bearish pennant like it still was yesterday. Unless the SP goes down to 95 and stays there at the end of today, there is probably a reversal - "probably" because there is not much volume vs yesterday's bearish day.

Yet L'Oreal's SP went markedly down.

You are just bypassing the evidence in support of my claim, so I’ll repeat it: the price of the trade was clearly lower than the bid at close.

And the volume in the last 1h or so was actually not that big, except for the final uncrossing trades. Which suggests symbolic trades, just enough to skew the movement of the SP so that a large sell order set at a prescribed limit can be executed.

That trade is almost certainly a sale. It is for a price well below the bid at close.

Bantham, your measured and pragmatic post is refreshing after occasionally reading this torrent of fanboy(girl?)-led posts, barring the occasionally trashing by dodgy posters.

Inflation has increased a lot since the last update and there are no obvious prospects that it will decrease in the next few months (and the news on the FT and the BBC that people are cancelling the streaming subscriptions are telling). However, as you as say, holders have to hope that such bad conditions (and how they will reflect on the trading update and the immediate forecasts from the company) have now been priced in by the market since the last update.

Overall, this is not the best company to be long IMO, but it is not the worst either. I'm standing on the sidelines for now.

KickThePuss - we do not know if Cine is comfortable in its cash position, EVEN if we ignore the Cineplex court ruling.
Mooky has been sufficiently vague in this respect. And remember that the cinema attendance figures recorded in the UK (from BFI.org.uk) and the USA (boxofficemojo.com IIRC) were considerably lower in January 2022 than in January 2019 (about 40-50% less IIRC).
The current storm may make Cineworld lose most of one weekend of takings in the UK too.

Furthermore, a business should never ever trying to raise funds (whether via debt or equity) when it is already short on cash: its bargaining power is considerably diminished.

So we cannot assume that Cineworld's cash position is comfortable.

Today's RNS was a bad idea. Obviously an extension is better news than none, but boasting of a 3-month extension is rather pathetic for a company of the scale of Cineworld. That suggests a sense of desperation.
Mooky should have kept his mouth shut instead IMO.

No RNS means nothing - the company denies the rumours: the SP tanks. The company confirms the rumours: the potential acquirer probably walks away due to (1) lack of discretion from the BoD that would come across as untrustworthy and (2) skewed SP.

Short answer - everyone (incl. real pros) is struggling.
Long answer - a large part of the IPO valuation was based on the Ingenuity future prospects. Some IIs questioned those prospects and the extent to which they were part of the whole company's valuation, and then the announcement that the immediate money-making sections of the company would get sold off (THG Beauty among others) increase the importance of the question "how much is the IPO valuation based on Ingenuity valuation", which started triggering the decrease.

Alt answer: look on Twitter (and this BB?) for suggestions of the valuation per share at the start of the IPO vs the present one, considering more shares were issued since the IPO. The suggestion was around 280 pence per share IIRC.

Nobody can know for sure (or even half-sure) so take all comments with a massive pinch of salt.
HOWEVER, this is likely to be due to short-term traders who have identified a resistance in the high 130s and previous bottoms in the high 110s, so they properly play between these two zones.
Additionally, the news that Russia has pulled out some troops has been used as for 4th - 5th degree guesswork and encouraged some buys.
Generally, this share is being traded heavily in the absence of official news (vs rumours) regarding takeover.

The SP of the transaction is much higher than the advertised ask. This does look like shorts closing or long positions being taken.

That's when technical analysis (properly done, not the drivel that is usually found on BBs and Twitter) helps.
To cut a long story short, the downtrend signals were so strong with this share that any sharp rise like Friday looked likely to get sold into fast. But as you can see, a lot of Friday's gains have been clawed back now, which suggests that enough people believe in the likelihood of a takeover / the company becoming private again to win (partly so far) over this morning's profit takers.

Convers - consensus and opinion matter very little in such boards. What matters ultimately is the law (the takeover code, IIRC).
The takeover code only requires a plc to announce an offer once that offer has been formally made. There are no other legal requirements.
And as you might have noticed, MM has become much more "discrete" vs his behaviour pre November 2021 as he has now learned to keep his mouth shut outside of official channel / regulatory reporting slots.

KickthePuss - nobody on this forum will be able to give a fair valuation, particularly due to the extreme volatility of the markets and the high uncertainty of the turnover that will be generated by Regal once things have started stabilising in the coming months - such t/o will be one of the core components to valuate the IPO.
There is also the possibility that Mooky will only float a portion (vs the totality) of the Regal business to limit the extent of the overall shareholding too much, which would make it even harder to predict to put a number to the immediate cash that Cineworld would generate.

I was wrong about the parent Cineworld company being properly insulated from a full-blown damages award in favour of Cineplex (apologies all! Covid currently messing with my brain.).

However, I completely agree with the very intelligent points raised by OhhAhhCantona: equity always take the back foot to debt, and debt is granted by order of precedence from the time it was incurred, unless a special agreement is made with the various creditors concerned.
So a D4E would actually be damaging to the current creditors - so long as Cine can service interest payments, it is not in the creditors' interest to ask for the principal to be repaid and instead the creditors are more likely to waive covenant breaches for a long while.
And we know that Mooky has the family fortune in Cineworld so it is not in his interest to dilute the company further.