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The problem we have here is that buyers usually come in AFTER a placing, when they can look forward to the placing funds creating some share growth, before the next placing is needed. At these low levels, ECR will struggle to raise much more than £500k without having to give away a SIGNIFICANT discount. And then how much of that £500k will be used for actual drilling work and how much will go on the non share price moving stuff like soil sampling and BOD wages?

Yes Hurricane might create a rise, but the following needs to be considered:

1) Are they actually doing much drilling at Hurricane such that it will generate that rise?

2) Track record of producing share price moving results is non existent in the last two years?

3) A placing will then happen anyway shortly after Hurricane results.

4) Therefore, will any rise from Hurricane be a sustained rise, or be sold off in anticaption of a placing, which takes ECR back to square one?

Quite a bit for buyers to mull over here?

Most likely because SOME of these placing shares, when admitted, will be flipped above 1p, taking whatever liquidity there is above 1p?

This has been happening for months now.

"I would not be at all surprised to hear next week that HE1 is going it alone."

I would be VERY surprised if the collaboration falls through at this late stage, unless there are major issues with this Sofori Rig, or with Sofori as an outfit? Only last week they have emailed shareholders to confirm they are still looking to execute a contract with Sofori? And we've also spent a lot of time debating whether there are Rig providers willing to drill a single hole for He1. That said, if they do go it alone, it might explain the relative silence from LB, if He1 have been working away in the background with another Rig provider.

But as things stand, I'm expecting the Sofori Rig to be confirmed in the next few weeks. We might hear more from NHE at this investor show this week. All imo

Skittish - a thanks from me for all the images (past and present). What would reinforce them would be to learn that there has also been activity at NHE drill locations?

A decent reversal candle and on higher volume. Also nestled just between the 200 and 50MAs. I think we can rule out hearing anything from He1 until the actual RNS lands, but we can always rely on NHE to give us further updates next week, either via twitter or this event they are pitching at. If between now and Rig RNS, the noises remain positive, then we should hopefully see a ticking up back into the 7s next week, as there will be a strong expectation of a Rig RNS by the following week.

I also think that if this Sofori option wasn't going to work out, we would have heard by now. It's easy for LB to justify her radio silence if she is ultimately going to deliver a positive outcome. She knows it will hardly be mentioned again. But if she lands a negative RNS, her radio silence beforehand won't go down well at all for her credibility. I'm sure she knows that. Finally, I also wonder what the Aligator will throw at our rose tinted specs next week. All imo and GLA

They've been very quite about this drill, in comparison to last time round. You'd think B1 was the worst target in the whole portfolio and not the most exciting.

Lots of LTH, or regular posters, have disappeared as well.

I doubt there will any sale in Phili either. The 'for sale' sign has been up for some time, and I don't even get a sense that there's any serious interest. What does AH get out of this? Well a decent salary and consultant fees to start with. And then if Queensland looks promising, I am sure he will start to invest in ECR as he has done in his other venture(s). It's a win win for him whatever happens. No wonder he looks some happy all the time. What a gig to have? All imo

I think you mean de ramp mental? To be honest with you, I think we are past the point of ramping or de-ramping this. It doesn't need much de-ramping, and there's not much left to squeeze out by way of de-ramping. Everything that is negative has exhaustively been set out on this BB. Therefore, anyone who might have been shaken out by de-ramping is likely out already. I'm just setting out what's on my mind in terms of risk/reward, bull and bear case.

Assuming 'all is well', is it reasonable to expect this Rig RNS within the next 10 trading days? That would take us to month end. Maybe even as early as next week? I say that because if they are looking to mobilise by month end, then necessarily the Rig contract and all the other documentation will need to be in place before then. So for those of us who remain confident that all is on track, is the next two weeks the window of expectation for the RNS, or can we see it going into July?

It's not a straightforward decision right now. Sometimes, you can average down a loser and make the situation worse. In fact, as the saying goes "only losers average down losers". ECR might well be such a situation. If with the remaining cash they have available, they don't create some SUSTAINED upside, then the market knows there won't be much happening until the next cash raise. And that scenario will send the share price down further, and the seller(s), whether they are brokers or whomever, will have their next opening to exploit and sell into. Those averaging down now will then feel more pain, and find themselves nursing higher paper losses than currently, and having to average down again, and then with a placing overhang to contend with. That's the worst case scenario, but one that has to be put on the table here given the track record and recent performance. At the moment, I'm undecided whether to average down or remain on the sidelines to see what happens.

The reason you're a de-ramper to many is because you only engage with facts that suit a negative narrative, and then you highlight them at particular moments - some would say carefully chosen moments. For example, today there's some positive feelings again and you've decided to come out with the negative interpretation again.

Whilst it has been 9 weeks since the LOI, it has ONLY been 2 weeks since NHE have secured their funding, and been able to finalise their drilling plans. You can't sign a contract without the money or your drilling programme outlined.

And NHE are doing investor shows again next week. Again, not sure they would decide to do those if things were not going well behind the scenes. We also know that groundwork has been prepared at Tai. Again, would He1 go to those lengths and costs if there were major issues with the Rig contract?

Who knows, but by neglecting to engage with any of these facts, its little wonder that you're therefore seen as the resident de-ramper (or one of them). All imo and dyor

Market conditions will also have played a part. Not anywhere near as much buying interest in such AIM stocks at the moment, which is probably why any short selling is even possible/a winning strategy. Also, a lot of the nonsense that the companies come out with is easy to accept when the share price is soaring and there is no reason to question it, but we all become very inquisitorial and interrogative beings when it has a steep fall.

Hard to see light in this very long and dark tunnel yet, and I note that this seller(s) isn't done yet. All imo

We are going down some rabbit holes with some of the posts though. Although its a poor look for Sofori, beyond that, I simply fail to see what significance their lack of updated website and email have, for example? They probably don't get much traffic or work coming through the website/email. Or, they might be looking to update it as this upcoming drilling represents their biggest job to date?

The lack of website/email has seemingly not been a factor preventing them being the preferred Rig contractor, nor signing of LOI with them, nor ongoing contract negotiations, nor current maintenance being carried out on the Rig. So if it's not been a big deal for He1/NHE throughout all of this period, then why is it such a big deal now all of a sudden?

I half expect to read posts tomorrow saying the Rig is probably made out of Lego, and neither He1 or NHE have realised this over the last 4 months.

But maybe some of us would settle for a RNS announcing a Rig made out of Lego. Because, we're (understandably) so desperate for a Rig RNS. But knowing our luck, even then, there would probably be a follow up RNS saying that some vital Lego pieces are missing from the Rig meaning no spud in Q3:-)

I think people are maybe mistaking Sofori for some more conventional western drilling company. It is likely that Sofori is simply a small outfit based around one Rig, more rough and rugged than maybe what we are used to, and they might not have much of a profile or presence outside their region. And I am sure He1 and NHE will have done some basic due diligence on them, and will have maintained contact with the relevant people at Sofori. It seems to me that we are simply taking the Rig from Sofori and not much else probably. It's attraction is undoubtedly going to be its low cost, location and long term availability. NHE in particular, look like they will be active at Rukwa beyond this Q3 campaign, and this Rig is probably very cheap to retain. Perhaps the Rig hasn't been active for a while and likely needs more maintenance and/or inspection for that reason? Perhaps that inspection will necessarily need to involve any third parties who will be required to operate it at Rukwa, as well as He1 and NHE staff?

But I'm sure I heard either HE1 or NHE say in one of their interviews that this Rig had been operational in more recent times, and was being taken back to Tunisia for maintenance?

You can all listen to the recording of the NHE Webinar. The link is on their twitter page. This is everything that was said by them about the Rig:

3:35 - "just to be clear, we're getting ready to drill" [and was smiling enthusiastically when he said it].

30:45 - "we're working between ourselves, He1 and Sofori, on all the documentation and also getting the Rig up to spec, up to scratch and then we're aiming to have all that done and the Rig on a boat to Tanzania at the end of the month."

35:25 - "we're working on getting the Rig maintenance complete and all the documentation in place. It's not just a contract, there's a bunch of documents that need to be prepared to put that Rig on a boat, so end of the month."

They didn't seem troubled by anything, and twice repeated end of the month as the mobilisation target date.

I wouldn't be so sure about this being the bottom. There is very little volume at the moment, and if that continues, then don't MM usually take the price to a level where liquidity will return? Otherwise, how will they make money?

JC - no special knowledge of the process or the FCA, other than I thought the FCA's regulations required them to approve a submitted Prospectus (draft or final) within 10-20 working days. I think this is covered on its website. But could be wrong as regulations are often changed. Somebody else has mentioned workload. I have no idea if that is an issue as well. All imo and dyor

I don't think the time left (or lack of) is the underlying problem. This presupposes that there are significant issues to resolve with the Rig. If there aren't, and its just a case of sorting out the contracts, then time is not (yet) something to worry about for a Q3 spud. No, what I think is really the underlying problem is the complete lack of comms from He1. In the main, this 'radio silence' is causing folk to adopt one of the following positions:

1) There are those of us who see the lack of comms as an indication that all must be going well, otherwise we would have been told so. And that it doesn't make sense to give us an update saying this, if the actual definitive RNS will be issued very shortly.

2) There are others who see the lack of comms as worrying, and maybe with a sense of dejavu. Assuming or fearing that there might be some problems with this Rig, and then, understandably, worrying about time.

3) There are others who are using this as an opportunity to de-ramp and FUD. There is potentially now only a small window of opportunity left to do this, if the Rig RNS is close.

I'm currently in the first camp. I just don't think LB would keep us in radio silence and then drop a bombshell on us at the very last minute. She is new in post, currently has that honeymoon period with her shareholder base, and imo she would lose that trust irrevocably if she sat quiet on bad news?

And I also note that there is usually a shakeout before any major move up. Perhaps that's why we have that third camp right now? All imo and dyor

But just why is the Prospectus taking so long? RM initially said February, and surely by now, and with this governance review having been completed, there is no reason for ongoing delay with it? Has RM actually said what is causing the delay with it?

If we take NHE at face value (and let's do that for present purposes), then the original timetable was predicated on them having completed the farm out. They were expecting to have completed the farmout in May. As we know, they instead opted for the equity raise, which was not completed until 5 June. Furthermore, in contrast to He1, I'm not convinced that NHE have actually known what their Q3 drilling programme actually looks like until more recently. Remember, only as recently as March/April, NHE were talking about drilling 3 targets. It then went down to 2 targets, followed by a single target, before they recently re-affirmed it would be 2 targets, but have then added a plan to retain the Rig. So a bit of a moving feast really for NHE? And if they are to retain the Rig, and have only really decided this more recently, then I would imagine some part of the retention will need to be negotiated as well, and not only with Sofori, but also any other third party contractors/services. With funding only finalised on 5 June, enabling NHE to finalise its own plans, it is perhaps no surprise that the Rig contract is still being finalised some 8 days later? And as already highlighted, activity on the ground at Tai appears to be gearing up for drilling, with groundwork continuing this very month. All imo and dyor