Member Info for Legalwolf

I think the biggest factor behind the nerves and anxieties is the lack of comms from He1 (against a fall in the share price). Although NHE are in the same boat as us (literally and metaphorically), I'm not sensing that their shareholders are as anxious as ours. The simple reason for that is that they are getting almost weekly updates, written and through their CEO, which each and all continue to state that they are on target for Q3 drilling. By complete and stark contrast, we are not getting anything from LB or He1. I remain of the view that paradoxically, this lack of comms is more consistent with there being a positive RNS on the way. Otherwise, it would be contemptuous towards shareholders to just RNS us another Rig failure out of the blue. And I also believe that if there were insurmountable problems with this Rig, or the timescale for spud, that would be known by now and He1 would be duty bound to report it to the market, because their last RNS was about a LOI with Sofori. If that plan has changed, they would surely need to RNS it.

Therefore, I don't think that LB's plan as our new CEO is to go MIA/AWOL on us, only to resurface to drop another Rig failure RNS on us. I would like to think that true to her word, she and the team will have been working very hard, with diligence and determination, to get the Rig contract over the line. And that very shortly, they will deliver a positive outcome for their long suffering shareholders at long last.

Can't be sure of this of course, but this remains my hope and expectation. All imo and GLA

I honestly can't see us getting a buyer for CresWick/Baileston and in the timescale we need. Even if we do, they are going to be knockdown prices, maybe even 'try before we buy' kind of acquisitions like we have done with Hurricane. How much are they worth, really?

Yes - the second Rig is to be sold, without ever actually being utilised by ECR. A total waste of time and hope, and we can only hope that it won't also end up losing us some money on the sale price, like one of CresWick properties did. I imagine it probably will though.

I think one aspect that we didn't discuss yesterday, was that IF the placing was indeed forward sold - and we don't know if it was for sure - then will ORCP not have known that was happening? I note that the sell off commenced on 16 May, and there were RNS and media events during this period. When asked about share price performance and funding, nothing said at all about such matters and put down to market conditions. Even if the placing was not forward sold, it would have been arranged with the brokers at some point during this period, as they don't happen overnight?

How do people feel about such situations, if or when they happen during your investments? Does it erode trust in management and their transparency, or is it simply one of the things we retail investors have to endure for the greater good, and just goes with the territory of AIM investing? This is more general rather than specific to ORCP, as it happens across AIM and happens often I guess? All imo

Not an easy listen tbh. ECR are now selling the second Rig, as well as the last of the Victoria properties in order to raise cash. Just goes to show the extent of the mismanagement and misuse of funds under the previous regime imo. Clearly, the so called interest in contracting the second Rig from third parties has not materialised then? Also confirmed that there won't be any sale in Philippines as there is simply no interest. So that's being written off. Drilling in Hurricane to commence in September.

We all heard NHE CEO say they were aiming to get the Rig on a boat by month end. Therefore they must be in a position to sign the contract. I also thought they had collected the funds for tranche 1. The Sofori rig has no forward commitments and so they aren’t going to have a problem with NHE contracting with them on a ‘subject to…’ basis I would have thought. And not when they will be getting millions from each company? All imo and dyor

Good spot KeithOz and makes sense.

Thanks Daramuda - found it on the ECR website. For anyone else interested, the link is below. The consideration is bullet pointed within the RNS, and I guess the obvious one that leaps to mind is the AS $1 million ECR will need to pay in cash and shares, with the latter equivalent to the 60 day VWAP. Where's that cash coming come from?

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/ecr_minerals_plc/news/rns/story/xqgdykw

Can anyone point me to the relevant Hurricane RNSs. I'm sure I have read them, but now am struggling to locate them. I just want to see what our obligations are and by when, from hereon, as well as obviously revisit the potential which led us to the' try before we buy' deal. Thanks

Also BT's tweet:

"It’s great to be back here now, after a very successful trip in Botswana.

3 years of extremely hard work is coming to a head 💪."

Yes, I know... but then you never know :-)

We need to remember that there's probably a wide margin of error here and possibility for surprises (pleasant ones as well as the disappointing ones). Previously they didn't even drill the conductor but missed two conductors by drilling between them. And so who knows what they might or might not have encountered even before they get to TD. Especially if there is a mineralised system down there and they will now be drilling through the hard stuff and towards it?

They aren't giving us running commentary on the drill - and so that's a deliberate lesson learned from the previous drill I guess?

GH - I'm sure there has been some analysis and research, especially around green hydrogen being a hot sector in the future, etc. But I do feel that when all is said and done, you're taking a big chance on Naheed here. I'm not willing to take that chance, because of her track record. And so I need to see one or more of these LOI/MOU turn into binding commitments, and/or see the market react positively, before ever making that sort of commitment.

I do respect your contrary point of view though and wish you well with it.

Hurricane incoming for sure. Will it decimate the buyers or the sellers?

I don't disagree with the long term potential. But 15p isn't happening whilst there is this risk of dilution imo. That path needs to be cleared so that the share price can get to those levels. At the moment, it's just been spikes and then retracements back to 5p, because that's where the placing shares are usually issued. There needs to be a development that takes Bres out of this trading pattern and towards those levels. Remember, still in a difficult market for juniors and a long way off production. Maybe the DFC could provide that inflection point?

The Sheikh has been around for a while now. Previous MOU/LOI have also been with big companies. None have been closed to date. I'm afraid those are the undeniable facts. So the market has every right to be very sceptical about these latest ones, and its scepticism is reflected in the all time low share price and placing of today.

Maybe if Naheed didn't have that history and this was a new IPO, it would be different. But i'm afraid she doesn't have the confidence and conviction of the market, and will now only be judged on actual delivery and not the promise of delivery imo.

"MOUs are not nothing, normally do lead to binding contracts, and are exactly what I would expect to be happen at this stage if the projects. And as I’ve said before, clearly the market doesn’t value MOUs much. But I think that’s barmy tbh."

Yes, but you can't blame the market or call is barmy if the previous MOU/LOI here have never resulted in anything binding. It might be you that is barmy for thinking these are going to be any different? Don't mean that personally btw

Many say a better strategy is to compound your account, rather than go for that one big kill. That if you trade the very many 20%+ opportunities that are always out there, you will make more money than waiting for those more rare one bag or multibagger opportunities that come up very rarely.

I am seeing this so often on AIM, that I am coming to the realisation that its the safest (and hence wisest) approach to maybe take. Rather than get a bag, the LTH are left holding it, and the traders nick off with all the money!!!

GH - fair enough. Does Naheed's track record of signing MOUs that never result in any binding deals not provide you with a potential "non extraordinary" reason? And explain why the market doesn't see it as you do, because it sees what has actually happened with similar MOU/LOI in the past, and is not willing to bet that these are going to be any different?

AG1989 - fair enough. It's advice that I picked up from Trek in fact, who I think you know is very experienced and respected investor (who does trade a second pot in his investments on the side).

Never tried it myself, but seriously thinking about it nowadays (and reading books around it, as it requires a lot of skill). I have found that most of the AIM shares that I have held onto for more than 6 months have usually lost me money. There have been some exceptions there, but only in the bull market post Covid. Not in this bear market.

"Why does anyone think this might not happen?"

GH - that's the problem right there. Surely, that's the question that YOU should be asking yourself? Why does the market (i.e. comprising of millions of individuals and institutions) not see what you can see? Might it be your vision and belief that is faulty here? Not being personal there. In fact, I think you have started to answer the above question in your previous post about the dilution etc.

Let me share with you what I have read in investment books (some written by hedge fund managers, others by successful investors). Not all companies with sound fundamentals make good investments. The ones that do are when the "market" starts to give value to those fundamentals, and buys in large volumes. This is determined by price action alone. So the fundamentals AND the technicals have to go together. Only when they are aligned should you invest.

One thing I have found very difficult is to wait for this moment. I have always fallen foul of the trap of thinking that I know better and am getting in early and catching the inevitable upside, before the market "wakes up". And then when the market never "wakes up", it's time for me to wake up instead and see the error of my approach.

Timing is very important. No one gets it bang on, or can time it precisely, but to not even recognise its importance, is an area of your approach that I do think it is worth you maybe doing some more research on.

Can't remember who it was, but in the words of one famous stock investor: "let the market try to grab the first and the last 20%, I'm happy with the easier and safer 60% in the middle."