Member Info for Legalwolf

Aligator - as has been pointed out you before, that is simply NOT correct. In order to finalise a contract, you need to have your funding in place and then have decided what you can afford to drill, wish to drill and when, and then contract for that accordingly. Once both companies have put their requirements to Sofori (and other contractors), only then can the costs be finalised.

At no stage prior to June 2023, were NHE in a situation to confirm these vital details. How could they if they did even have their funds, or know how much funds they had to contract with. Therefore, I don't actually think the parties will have been able to really negotiate many of the non standard elements of these contracts until June 2023. From there, you then have the knock on effect of working out drilling schedules and contingencies.

In fact, viewed like this, one might even argue that we are being unrealistic in expecting everything to have been sorted out in the month of June! All imo

I think its premature to draw any conclusions just yet. I'd wait until next week. They must be close to giving us a definitive update, otherwise I do believe that they would have given us an INTERIM update at least. To just go radio silent and alienate your shareholder base, and then hit them with bad news after that long wait, just makes no sense at all. Especially for a new CEO. It's bordering on self-sabotage and she will find it hard to recover shareholder trust (i've seen this with other CEOs who have delayed bad news), so why would she do that to herself, her shareholders or the company?

Same with the NHE CEO. Only a week ago he was confidently saying again that: "we WILL BE drilling in September" (or words to that effect) and keen to get that in at the end of his interview.

So it doesn't make sense that if the news is bad, then our CEO just goes quiet, and the other CEO keeps pretending that all is going well, but will take a few weeks longer than initially anticipated?

Anyway, Friday is the day for bad news usually, so let's see if NHE drop that on us tonight, and if they don't, then we can switch back into hoping we might get some good news early next week. All imo

Has anyone had any comms from the company this week?

AIM listed Bres (graphite) are seemingly close to securing a grant from the US Govt, through its Development Fund. But they have made clear that the funding is for 50% of the costs (in their case to pay for a DFS) and Bres itself will have to find the remaining 50%.

Is Oliver exploring a different funding option, or is the idea that GMET are aiming to get 50% from this same Fund, and 50% non dilutive from other options?

I agree with the points being made about bear to bull markets. What I would add is that these reversals don't happen overnight, and sometimes certain sectors can remain in very prolonged bear markets type malaise. I've got a small holding here at a 2.3p average and 70% down. I don't know why I have held onto it for as long as I have. I have missed a couple of opportunities to average down and then exit - Molopo Farms being the most recent one. Maybe that's why?

In the time that I have been in and around POW, I have realised that it does NOT perform any differently (in terms of its share price) than any other junior explorer, and that its own share price performance hasn't changed all that much because of its corporate activity and IPO model. Why do I say this?

Well, in very broad terms, what I have come to witness is that when POW's share price has moved, it has done so because of exploration activity and discovery potential (e.g. Molopo), and not because of IPOs. In fact, a number of RNS about IPO have come and gone, and not had the same impact as the exploration ones.

So far, PJ's IPO model has not made much of a difference, if any, to POW's actual share price. I appreciate that it might well do, either when those IPOs companies are far more advanced than they are now, and/or sector sentiment returns. In fact, I would be very confident of share price performance when this bull market lands. I will keep hoping and watching out for it, but not sure now is the right time to average down, as I'd rather not have more funds committed to a underperforming share, which might be better used elsewhere for now. Whilst none of us can really time the markets, there probably are certain periods that ought to be avoided. All imo and dyor

Looks to me that the recent debate of whether this would fall or bounce is starting to be resolved in favour of the former. It has seemingly broken to the downside, and the previous support at 3.5p might now serve as resistance at that level. As I said from the very outset, the issue here would always be on of TIME. How long will it take for OMI to negotiate and then deliver a positive update to the market re Anza? The longer that takes, the more time the share price has to just drip down. And will they eventually provide a positive update, or will it be an update that will just bring more delay or dismay?

But of course if any update were to be positive, then you would expect OMI to bounce back. It's just a question of where the share price will have to bounce back from. All imo and GLA

Yes, how many times on this BB have folk commented on the fact that He1 are only drilling a single hole. Given that, what would be better for us and better received:

1) An RNS next week talking about He1's single hole in Q3, and NHE's drilling in Q3 and 2024.

2) An RNS next week talking about He1's drilling in Q3, and plans to drill again with the Sofori Rig in 2024.

If we've had to wait a few weeks more, but end up with the second announcement, then it will definitely have been worth the wait and will be like a 'Brucie bonus' in the much awaited RNS. And LB will be lauded once more....

"Mental: What I'm saying is that no amount of spin or hype is going to rally the SP to any extent."

Notrex - but this isn't how AIM works at all. There are lots of beaten down dogs on AIM. But they all live to bark loudly for another day. We are NOT in a period of spin and hype. We will get sampling results for Lolworth, and then drill in Hurricane. I don't believe either of these events, or certainly both of them together, won't move the share price from these levels. And then you are right, the Hurricane results will then have the final say. But where will the share price be just before those results land? My calculation is that by that stage, the share price will be significantly higher than where it is now.

One thing I have learned (or am learning) is that we can spend a long time in a share hoping it will bag at higher levels. So in ECRs case, a one bag from 0.5 to 1p (or close to). But then when this one bag fails to materialise and the share price instead falls the other way, you spend so much time lamenting and cursing, that you fail to spot the far easier one bag opportunity from 0.25p to 0.5p (or close to).

But let's see what happens and good luck to you in trying to get back to breakeven.

I'm going for Tuesday next week. I do not believe we are waiting on NHE, at least not in relation to funding as they already have the funds now, but possibly we might have needed to wait for NHE to finalise its drilling plans, both in terms of what exactly they want to drill in Q3, and then their plans for retention of the Rig to go back and drill appraisal wells.

Also, if NHE are planning on drilling exploration wells and then returning to appraise, will that not also be necessary for He1? So maybe we are also trying to negotiate basic terms for drilling again with Sofori next year? Given how difficult it has been to get a Rig to Rukwa in the first place, and realisation of that hard fact, maybe He1 have also been thinking of collaborating with NHE and Sofori for 2024?

Would make sense?

"I'm afraid I do believe there will be little of the 'traditional' stirring/movement during this period - that which one might have expected from most companies (and better times). Regrettably, there's no getting away from the fact (yes, fact) that ECR have been serial failures for ten years - and the BoD are clearly not trusted at all by many (most?). These are the reasons I believe there will be little movement until ECR can actually deliver (not just talk about delivering) that which they have failed to deliver for a decade. Folks have long memories and many have been badly burned here in the past - and it's exactly the same BoD (minus late CEO) that have led us to the current financial precipice - another fact. All IMO of course."

"I now have an average that if things go well in QLD could potentially be achieved - or at least come close enough to make selling-up (crystallising a loss) more palatable."

Inherent contradiction? If there is the potential for things to go well in QLD, then there is the potential for people to anticipate this (as you have done), and hence that anticipation has the potential to cause the stock to stir beforehand. Whilst you might have needed to average down, there are others who will enter for the first time on anticipation. All imo

Then why have you put even more money into a stock that you think has no realistic prospect of stirring into life for the foreseeable future. Do please explain the investment strategy and nous here?

All good points and well made. I'm tempted (and have been for a while) by the price, but NOT tempted by the market conditions. The two (price and market sentiment) have to come together, unless I see a more shorter term opportunity emerging simply on the price.

I'm going to keep the positives on a positively titled thread, to stop the game being played by the trolls.

Basically, ECR is about to roll the dice again and this time in Queensland. Lolworth and Hurricane look like decent bets for potentially company making assets. The first piece of news will the sampling results from Lolworth. They have been very encouraging to date and so every reason to expect more of the same. Then we will have the announcement of drilling at Hurricane. And as I said, a Rig/property sale RNS could land at any time.

The stock has been beaten down badly already. At some point, it will switch back to the buyers in control. I mean, do we realistically expect the stock not to stir into life at all during this period? I don't and so it's just a question of where the reversal level will be and when.

There are LOTs of fakers on here probably also waiting for that buy point. Maybe looking for the cheapest possible entry point and beating away at the stock in the interim. Probably best to scale into such a situation, and I've started that process today. Will keep nibbling away as when the price provides such opportunities. GLA

In that case Skippy, I would say very well done and smart 'trading'. Hopefully, they will prove to be very shrewd buys under this market pressure/noise, and make it all the more worthwhile when you come to cash in - as I hope you will get to do in due course and wish you best of luck with it.

BTW - I don't mean "watch and learn" in a condescending way or aimed at anyone in particular. I meant it for all of us, myself included, because I suspect we will have lost some of our comrades (i.e. they have been shaken out) in the last two weeks.

Skippy - "I don't think a shakeout works". I would hold those words, reserve judgement, watch... and then learn. Just look at the volume that has come in at the bottom of the shakeout. I'd now be looking for a move back up, before the news lands. That's why I said let's see where we close this week. Let's see where we close today and tomorrow.

The idea behind a shakeout is clearing out weaker hands and remaining sellers at these levels, before a big move up. These sold shares will now be more tightly held than before, meaning less supply when demand will be at its highest. When that demand comes in, there won't be many sellers because those that were looking to sell their shares at these levels will have done so by now.

In these circs, IF that Rig RNS lands next week, the MM will run the stock up faster than anything we have witnessed in recent months i.e. the move back up and beyond previous levels will be powerful, because the buyers will come piling in and the sellers have most been dealt with beforehand.

Of course, all assuming the Rig RNS does indeed land. All imo and dyor

We might have to swallow a bit of a loss on the Rig, but this is Australia which has a huge mining industry. I'm sure there will be a decent market for a Rig that has already been imported into the country, either from similar junior explorers wanting their own MIDAS, or from drilling companies. And it's a multi purpose Rig.

So, I have reasonably high hopes that a Rig sale RNS and/or property sale RNS will land in H2. This is not as silly and unrealistic as waiting and expecting an asset in the Philipines to be sold. It's actually a very likely and high probability development imo?

Dan - I agree, but IF they sell either the Rig and/or the property, then that will give us more rolls of the dice. Remember, our drilling campaigns are much cheaper than for other juniors because we have our own Rig.

Whilst a sale of Danglay was always unlikely, a sale of the property and/or the Rig shouldn't be as difficult. We have already sold two of the properties?

I meant "mad" scramble, although thinking about it "made" scramble is also quite accurate!

I keep coming back to the question that if there were/are "insurmountable" problems with getting a Rig for Q3, whether alone or with NHE, why would He1 keep quiet about this? What useful purpose would it serve for the company, against the damage it would do to it? And you also need to remember that there are TWO companies here across two different markets - and so it would mean that BOTH companies have decided not to tell their respective markets and shareholders the same BAD news. Again, what does that achieve for them going forwards?

I'm still of the belief (and I won't put it higher than that) that what we are witnessing here is an orchestrated shakeout in the run up to news. There's much more money to be made here by shaking out holders who have patiently waited for the Rig. What do you think these (now ex) holders will be doing when the Rig RNS lands? Are they going to say, sorry no thank you, too late now, or are they going to be queuing up to jump back on board. Then you will have those who have been waiting on the sidelines for Rig RNS, before committing, as well as existing holders (like me) who have held some funds back for the same reason.

I think it will be made scramble when the Rig RNS lands. In fact, I am intrigued to see where we will close this week. And I won't be surprised if we see a big gap up opening if or when the news lands next week. These shares haven't been shaken out only to be sold back to us cheaply?

Of course, that's the positive scenario and it might play out differently if the news is bad... GLA and all imo