Member Info for Legalwolf

TS - you almost had me going there!

You know it's bad when even the seller can't be bothered anymore even though he seems to have the pitch to himself.

It would be nice to have such a tweet, but I think we are more likely to get that from NHE rather than He1. I get the impression that LB isn't going to put out any comms until the Rig contract is signed - that seems to be the legacy effect of what happened under DM? This stance by He1 is tenable only if the Rig RNS will be issued this month and they are working towards this. If it's going to take much longer, and/or will impact on timescales for spud, then they should put out an interim RNS update.

Overall, I'm of the view that 'no news means good news is days away' and I am expecting a RNS by 26 June at the latest. In the meantime, we will likely get appetizers from NHE though and will have to feed off those. All imo

Time is not an issue at present. If they are travelling by boat, then I can't see why it's going to take 6 weeks to get the Rig to Rukwa. I've read that it will take about 20 days to travel from the port of Tunis to Dar es Salaam, and then from there to Rukwa is showing up as 750 miles, for example. As for signing the contract, would they not want to make sure the Rig has the necessary maintenance work all done and passes its inspection first? All imo and dyor

Hi Impecunious - I'm thinking very much of the junior explorer/commodity sector. Sectors which need a very strong bull market across the indices, which then makes its way to such more speculative stocks. Not much speculating going on at the moment?

*LW comes along saying random articles about Paakistan are pointless*

Nothing like that from me. Last few days have been very encouraging and I hope that continues for ORCP holders this week. GLA

Dan - AH was a founding director of Allup Sillica when it IPOd in April 2022. He started off as Executive Chair, and since then he has changed roles to MD. Funnily enough, he was appointed to ECR at around the same time as Allup was admitted for trading. Looks like an interesting company.

One thought that has been at the back of my mind, is whether the collaboration agreement will also cover release of results. By that I mean, that although He1 will be drilling first, they won't be releasing results until after NHE have completed their first drill as well?

I'm not raising this as a likely scenario - it probably isn't, but seeing as we have not much else new to discuss whilst waiting for this Rig RNS, I thought i'd throw it out there, as it is something that I have been wondering about.

I know companies are allowed to hold back newsflow in certain situations and wondered whether, if NHE insisted on it as part of the collaboration agreement that He1 could drill first, it is something that He1 could agree to. Or would it be too commercially sensitive that He1 would be duty bound to release to the market and couldn't agree to such a condition?

Thinking about it, having such an agreement in place could actually suit both companies, in that if He1's results were positive, He1 could release them straightaway, and NHE would be happy for them to do so, but if they were negative, it would suit both He1 and NHE to delay the release? This would give He1 some time to figure out its next move as well.

Like I said, I am NOT raising this as a serious or likely possibility....

"Possibly the wrong board to ask as I guess there would be a heavy lean to HE1 being their discussion board and the vested interest of those on here."

Possibly the wrong time as well, in that one company is out there marketing itself, and the other is radio silent. I'm sure LB will speak about He1 post discovery/drilling plans. With the size of resource that each might have, them each being taken out is as likely as any other option.

And post their capital raise, won't the NHE CEO have a near controlling interest in NHE? So what are his intentions?

One issue for me is how much do we trust NHE and what they proclaim? I am not knocking them, and you will see from my previous posts that I have been very complimentary about them. BUT, when it comes to trusting everything they say, I'm not so sure. In their recent webinar, they disclosed that they had been working on a capital raise for 6 weeks. Yet during that period, they were pumping the farmout at every opportunity. Makes me think that they were saying one thing publicly, and doing something entirely differently behind the scenes.

And then when you reflect on some of the oddities of the eventual farmout announcement they made, it does make me wonder whether there was in fact a blind date, who won the race and left a string of other bidding pearls disappointed, or whether it was all fiction. And then it makes you wonder about the rest of their comms, particularly around post discovery planning and interest.( I'm not even sure I'm convinced NHE will end up drilling their second target, as opposed to raising the money for it, but as a hedge against a duster on the first, and giving themselves some room for manoeuvre in this scenario.)

Granted we aren't getting much comms from He1, but when LB does communicate, I'm glad that she comes across as a straight talker, and not someone you have to listen to and then question what is being said in your mind as much. All imo and dyor

KR - I think it's obvious that He1 have adopted a strategy of not saying anything until there's something concrete to say. This is the direct consequence of what has happened under DM. I am sure that if the collaboration was no longer happening, or NHE were saying stuff that simply isn't true, then we would have heard from He1. But in the absence of that, we are not going to get an interim reports - because they raise as many questions and they answer.

I would also like to hear from He1. But if they are now only a week or two away from giving us the news, as we have been led to believe by NHE, then I can understand why they will want to stick to their strategy. It makes no sense to break it when you are on the home straight.

But once they deliver this Rig RNS, I would expect them to have the opposite approach, which is regular comms and promo like NHE are doing. All imo

It's a really obvious point to understand when made, or reminded of it, but paradoxically, it is also one that is also so easy to forget. And I am as guilty of forgetting this as anyone else.

Namely, that we are in a bear market and very little actually works or goes right in such a market!

We either step aside completely and wait until the market is better. Or, we position ourselves for it, but in the meantime, we temper our expectations accordingly. And if we express frustrations or lament the share price in this bear market (I don't mean occasionally, but regularly, we are all human at the end of the day) then we have failed to properly temper and tune those expectations and realise the market we are in.

I've scaled back a lot of my investments and try to remember this more. Maybe we should all have stickers nearby saying 'warning, bear market, do not enter, hazardous' or something like that to help us remember. All imo

FK79 - I wouldn't let BB get to you, or put you off.

I get stick all the time on these BB. First time it happened actually rattled me, now I don't mind at all and actually am 'happy' to take it. Occasionally you get trolled, and it gets personal, but you know what, who gives a monkeys? It's just strangers behind a keyboard, and not anyone of any relevance/significance in your life. Confidence in my assessment and decision making is the ingredient to ensuring this attitude, and you seem to have that with your investment in KAV.

I am sure that unless PB do bring in the doomsday scenario that some are fearing, things will return to normal. Life goes on and these things all fade away. And there are more raging debates to be had, here and elsewhere.

It's all good learning as well, in terms of gauging investor sentiment and psychology, and how it works. So take the benefits.

Anyway, have a good weekend and let's see what this B1 drilling brings us!

In making this point, I am not saying the IPOs won't ever benefit our share price, that would be wholly wrong. And there are other relevant factors to consider here, such as bear market conditions, the IPOs are pre-discovery, and the IPOs benefit us in other ways as well. For example, we can raise capital by selling our shares in them, they are assets on our books, etc. Also, they will draw more (dare I say learned and sophisticated) investors into POW (such as Rick Rule) and so that will boost the share price, or should?

IMO, most AIM investors, if they like one of the IPO companies, will buy shares in that IPO, and not POW. They will reason that they will get more or quicker upside from the IPO, than investing in POW because of that IPO. And they might be right. That's probably what we are witnessing.

If you think about it, most of us will have invested in a company that is either such an IPO and/or has another company that owns a large stake in it. How many times has this caused you to bypass the first company (the IPO), and invest instead in the other company?

If we are on the topic of time, then let's also be balanced and make the point that there's not much time left to de-ramp this stock now, as it approaches an announcement on the Rig.

He1 are under a duty to RNS us if there were any issues with the Sofori Rig. Remember what happened when the Exhalo Rig fell through, they RNSd us the very next day.

Therefore, no news means good news incoming shortly. All imo and dyor

Let me clear this up, even though part of me suspects this might be (more) de-ramping. The context is really important in understanding the actual question he was asked. Whoever created this thread, has for some reason omitted that. Hmmm

The context is that NHE are making out as if they have a certain discovery (talking about 14/14 discoveries from such structures, string of pearls, etc, etc). This is very much like how DM would talk about our Tai target. Both are/were ramping their stock and their prospects, as some many such CEOs do.

Now the question the NHE was actually asked was what made him so confident of making a discovery at their targets, when He1 had recently issued a CPR with a 14% COS. (Now remember, NHE don't have any CPR to back up their bold claims - something which our own KeithOz commented upon recently and was not impressed by.)

This was probably the first time NHE's ramping of their own COS had been indirectly challenged/questioned. And to the extent that he was uncomfortable, it was more likely this question that caused it, as opposed to any comparisons he was making between the two prospects. It will have led some to wonder why NHE don't have a CPR - and then draw their own inferences from that, which might not be very positive ones.

If you're talking up your chances of success, and someone asks you for proof, it will likely make you uncomfortable.

So imo, nothing new to see here, unless you want to create negativity because there's now a small window of opportunity to do so. All imo and dyor

....might take a while to...

In terms of the 6/7p v 1/2p 'argument' on here, I think general market conditions might actually play a key role in determining which of those will transpire, as much as any discussions between OMI and the majors (which take a while to generate some kind of decision and therefore update)?

Understood Scott and I can see that you have thought it through, and considered the various permutations.

It will be fascinating to see how how each company does, before, during and after. He1 is re-drilling a target, whereas NHE is maiden drilling two different but equally compelling sounding targets. They will also have a "hot Rig" (and crew?) which was something that DM made a big deal about when we were going to drill with the Exhalo Rig.

I suppose if He1 did make that discovery, another smart play might be to then put some of that money into NHE, depending on where NHE's share price is at any such point?

Anyway, whether invested or not, He1 holders are undoubtedly going to be following NHE every bit as closely as He1, and I have a feeling that NHE will continue to outperform HE1 on the comms side. I think our LB might be a bit camera shy, compared to her counterpart at NHE?

If I might say so, I thought that was a decent post from FK79, logical and well reasoned, and one which has kept its 'eye on the ball'. I also respect FKC's views and anyone who is willing to mobilise against what they (rightly or wrongly) perceive to be against their (shareholder) interests, deserves credit, whether we agree with their analysis, or think its a futile/misconceived endeavour and false economy. I am re-assured by FKC's feedback from the AGM and the comments from PWB.

But when I say 'eye on the ball', what I mean really is have the fundamental ingredients of making money or losing money here changed all that much with this deal? Aren't our individual and collective fates here in that respect (yours, mine, BT's, BOD's, PB's) still going to be ultimately determined by success or failure on the ground, rather than this off the pitch activity? And the extra money will give KAV more of a runway towards trying to make that elusive first discovery.

So to that extent, I simply reconciled myself to this and thought nothing has really changed here in terms of whether or not my (as yet) small holding here is going to make money or not. That will still be determined by the drill bit.

So I found myself somewhat ambivalent in the end and less inclined to get overly worked up about it. And with the vote now partially done and in the rear view mirror, I hope things can return to some kind of normality. We're in the midst of what was meant to be a monumental drill - the single biggest and most awaited in all of KAV's drill targets.

But as I said before, it simply hasn't felt like that at all. Will BT now resurface and start doing some comms, or are they not expecting big things from this drill?