Member Info for Legalwolf

One thing I would say, and their CEO alluded to, is that their targets are different to ours. They might have spent more years investigating theirs and been more sophisticated/advanced with those investigations, having done things like 3D seismic. But not an area I'm competent to comment on in terms of making comparisons and will leave such to other posters like KeithOz, who I believe has already commented on this previously.

I believe you can short without notifying so long as you keep each short position below a threshold of 0.5%? And even then, certain shares are exempt from the requirement.

This is separate to Dan's point, which is failure to report. The way to think about that point is to ask yourself two basic questions:

1) Does forward selling (shorting) go on on a large scale?

2) Have you ever seen any such notifications where it has?

Don't forget, NHE are also expecting to hit first time. The second target is not some kind of alternative back up based on some alternative geological modelling, but very much more of the same? The second in the string of pearls so to speak. So if the first target doesn't reveal any pearls, not sure the second target necessarily offers better odds of doing so, and actually, the its odds of doing so will be less in that scenario?

Who were the brokers that undoubtedly (in the opinion of most) forward sold that now infamous placing under CB a few years ago? The one that happened after CB had expressly ruled it out only weeks before, and which placing then stopped the uptrend. In fact, I do believe that placing triggered the beginning of the downtrend that ECR has been in ever since? CB blamed the placing on the broker's afterwards, saying they had talked him into it and told him they would do it at a much higher price than they eventually did?

I often wonder if brokers end up doing back to back placings, forward selling them at each stage, and thereby making a killing for themselves and their clients? Seen this kind of situation or possibility a lot on AIM. Is it the chosen strategy during bear markets? All imo and dyor

Scott22 - I posted only a few days ago asking whether anyone was investing in both companies. I was of course entertaining the idea of having a smaller position in NHE, as opposed to 100% in HE1. Two main reasons for this 1) I've been very impressed with NHE's promotional activities (or call it ramping if you like, it matters not), and 2) They are coming across as far more advanced in the planning than we are when it comes to any post discovery monetisation of the Helium (again, they might just be ramping this, but still its in stark contrast to the silence we have had from He1 on this topic).

BUT - what has ultimately so far stopped me from doing so has been the following:

1) How much of a share price rise is it realistic to expect in NHE when millions of placing shares are going to hit it from tomorrow in tranche 1. Surely there will be a lot of flipping going on?

2) And just when you think tranche 1 have been cleared and there is light emerging at the end of the tunnel, you will then be hit with tranche 2 placing shares at 0.18p?

Is there not a risk of NHE spending most of its run up to its first spud in September trying to clear this overhang? And what happens if He1's drill runs into problems or proves to be a duster. That's going to be a double whammy for NHE's share price?

Therefore, i've decided that its better to stick with He1, as we don't have any such pressures and potential large overhang to contend with? But I do wish you well with both investments. All imo and dyor

Well, as I have said, I do believe ORCP could be arriving at a potential inflection point with this DFS. I hope its an inflection move up, and the beginning of a sustained fight back/reversal for the share. But please do factor in the alternative possibility as well, which is the share price could end up stuck between the last placing at 0.17p and whatever price the next one will be done at. It's super critical, therefore, that this DFS takes ORCP into the 0.2p - 0.3p range at least. And IF Naheed does need to raise, or when she next needs to raise, that she capitalises on any move up and discounts the raise from that level. I am sure she will be aware of such strategic considerations and how the market works.

As I'm not going to risk getting involved here until I know which of the above mentioned inflections/scenarios occurs in the coming months, and I appreciate that its an important period coming up for ORCP (and other posters have criticised me for trolling), I will reduce posting on here, and particularly if there is nothing new to discuss during this period. I've said everything I can helpfully (or unhelpfully depending on your perspective) say here.

I'll finish by wishing the LTH here the best with this upcoming DFS. If it all goes well, as I hope it will, then I will happy for you all. After all, what's the point of the markets if long term and loyal holders don't get rewarded in them. And if it doesn't go well (in terms of the share price), you wont hear any gloating 'or told you so' from me (never been my style that). GLA

i know this came up recently on the bb in relation to another middle eastern company (i think) who are also looking to develop a gh project. i was wondering whether anyone here has invested in or monitored chariot ltd, who announced that they would explore developing a gh project in morroco, around the same time that orcp announced its gh project in ****stan. it's always useful to see what else is happening in the sector, and what other similar companies are doing on similar projects, helps with assessing potential and viability, etc. chariot are are also an aim listed junior company (although their flagship project is gas not gh). more generally, found the below article from motley.

it would be really good for orcp to raise its profile and get itself onto such lists don't you think? this would help raise awareness and profile, bring new investors on board, etc. at the moment, a lot of the media that naheed does appears to be channelled through a few outlets such as zak mir, or the webinar platform that is used.

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing-basics/market-sectors/investing-in-hydrogen-stocks-in-the-uk/

Art - I see that they only have 190 million shares in issue. I have read and heard that shares which have such small floats tend to make bigger moves up (and of course down), than companies with more shares in issue. I don't know if this is necessarily correct, or what the underlying reason might be? But it's a point that is often raised, as a positive, by posters on BB for such companies ("stock is tightly held", or "there aren't many shares available so this will rip" etc).

AG - yes that's correct.

If these reported trades are accurate (and that's a big if?), then we do still seem to have this large seller or selling taking place near the bid still? If it is selling, then there is no deterrent to it, because the buyers have all disappeared mostly? I would imagine this situation will reverse at some point, but the question is whether this level is the battleground for such a reversal, or whether that battle starts even lower?

DR R - I think it will need a lot more than simply a preliminary DFS to cause that kind of meteoric rise, but you can always dream, that is what AIM is about I guess. (I think that kind of rise will need binding commitments on finance, and entirely possible if such a RNS lands, although it will obviously take a bit of time to get to that level). GLA

Yes, thanks for the correction. I did mean 0.1p and that was a typo.

If you are trading this and only interested in trading it, then trade the DFS. I would say the timing for that is good and the risk is low. But I'm not really interested in trading ORCP. If you are looking to invest in ORCP for the longer term (as would be my intention), then I would say the risk is higher for the reasons I have previously set out.

None of this is advice though, wthdoik, merely my own analysis/thoughts and position.

Can we stop linking NHE share price fall to news? They've just had a placing at 0.18p, and so their share price was always going to fall back to this level. If you recall, our share price fell to 5p when we did our placing at 5p. That's just what happens with most placings. In fact, I don't see much of rise for NHE even when the Rig RNS lands, because they have a LOT of placing overhang to clear, and more to come from tranche 2.

As for drilling timetable, NHE CEO said they have plenty of time. I also actually suspect that NHE won't be massively concerned if they don't drill their SECOND hole before the (November?) rains. They have said they will be retaining the Sofori Rig, and so I expect them to have this contingency in their drilling contract with Sofori i.e. to drill their second target after the rains if needs be.

The two companies have long agreed the order and timetable. NHE have repeatedly said that HE1 will go first in August and they will drill their first hole in September. They need the collaboration as much as we do, as all their costings and fund raise are based on this collaboration. All imo and dyor

At the moment, i'd say that in the short term, the share price is as likely to go back to 0.01p than it is to climb to dizzy heights. It recently tested that level on relative high volume selling. So that is now a level on the chart, and if things don't improve with this DFS, I do think it possible that this level will be retested at some point, such is the nature of these things. To avoid this happening, the following needs to happen:

1) This upcoming preliminary DFS needs to bring in strong buying from existing and new "investors".

2) That buying then leads to a SUSTAINED rise from these levels, so that the share price settles at a higher support level. What you don't want is more short term traders trading the DFS, which will result in a spike and then a sell off back to these levels i.e. more pump and dump style price action.

So I do think that there is LOT now riding on this DFS. This SUSTAINED rise simply has to happen BEFORE the next cash call from ORCP. I think that cash call will come in Q3, but really, whenever it comes. (I did say a while back that it would have been preferable for ORCP to have raised BEFORE this DFS. Most of you derided that. The share price fell anyway, without any benefit to ORCP. It would have been better to have gone into this DFS with a raise at these levels already in the rear view mirror, rather than a potential boulder in the road ahead).

Anyway, not making any calls here or anything, just setting out some personal (risk) analysis. Let's see how things unfold following the DFS. As always, all imo and DYOR

Interesting post Wyn - I have been thinking that whilst its in both companies interests to collaborate, will they not then become 'rivals' afterwards if they both make discoveries?

Personally, I think we should drill our hole and then err... the Sofori Rig mysteriously breaks down and/or key component parts can't be located ;-)

The Rig was covered at 30 mins and 35 mins of the presentation. Basically, it's not just the Rig contract that needs to be signed, but "a bunch of other documents to get the Rig on the boat" as well as completing the maintenance. I'm thinking he must mean export and transportation docs etc?

But its pretty clear why its end of month, as getting all this done by mid June i.e. a week from now, is pretty unrealistic. So I'm thinking completion of maintenance and Rig contract within the next 2 weeks, and then mobilisation a week later which is when they will have booked the boat for? All imo and dyor

I've just watched the webinar. As others have said, NHE confirmed a few times during it that Rig mobilisation is being planned for end of this month, with He1 going first and making the Rig operational.

You can watch the recording by registering using the following link and it will take you to the recording (or at least it did for me):

https://t.co/v5CXNISXsi

I agree, but if she knows the Rig contract is likely to be executed in a matter of weeks, in order for the Rig to be mobilised by month end on this boat, then she might not think its necessary to give an update when the actual announcement is now seemingly only another two weeks away?

Thanks Art. I was going by their asx announcement which I might have misread. But my point still very much holds in that I always saw their share price falling to their placing price of 0.18p and can’t see how it rises until all placing shares are admitted and they then clear any overhang?

In fact, I can even see theirs falling further as little to no opportunity for their holders to de-risk pre-drill if the second tranche aren’t to be admitted until August and they are drilling in September?

Is there a link to the webinar. I registered thinking I might watch a recording of it today? Anyway below is interview from NHE CEO giving end of month for mobilisation, which appears to be consistent with what he said last night?

https://t.co/G4haSLYusa

If so then Rig contract to be executed in a matter of weeks?