The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Carmzy, I am still optimistic on what COPL can do, but the focus currently is getting out of the going concern aspect corrected with rising production and my view is let’s get this to a 100m company on safe footing.
I get the valuations on the potential asset but to reach the stage where the asset is actually valued at 25b is a long way off and a lot of money off.
My assumption now, would be if there was 1b OIP, and a buyer confirmed that then they might assume 100m recoverable for purchase discussions and then pay £2-4 per barrel now as it currently sits with no additional work completed. That is still a huge amount compared to COPLs market cap.
Stas, I don’t like what I am about to say but typically NDA’s have a time period closure as opposed to an event driven closure, which might mean it’s still in place. That said there is no excuse for the lack of anything in the RNA the other day and I am as annoyed as anyone on that front.
I agree with your sentiment, but they officially said 2023 so what I want and what they have said are different.
I wanted guidance at the start of Dec to show their plans and what they were dealing with.
If the production news is the last day possible and poor with little detail then I think significant external pressures will hit the individuals involved as significant answers would be needed as to what they have been doing and the exact relationships between the eternal investors, executives, and other parties.
They have said news this year, just because it does not happen on the day you want does not mean that’s reason to criticise.
I will happy criticise the poor RNA recently with no detail but you can’t criticise the lack of news unless 2023 passes with no guidance
I would still love to fully understand who is buying them as I can understand PI’s have some and some new private investors but still struggle to see how they have the liquidity at these levels without already knowing a buyer(s) but who knows other than it will be great when they stop or at least pause
Why do I keep seeing constant comments, company is f’ked and bond holders will convert billions at this level. If it’s f’ked how do they convert and sell billions of shares at this level, who on earth would buy them?
You can’t have it both ways it’s either f’ked or they are going to convert billions and people will lap them up at this level with unlimited liquidity because the company has a future.
It how about the relevant parties will do what they want at this level, stop, and then behaves like a normal share and leave the £7.5m market cap joke behind.
Intothedeep, it’s easy money until they don’t have liquidity to sell into and at this sp I can assume liquidity won’t last forever. People say the company is going bust and finished unyet in the next sentence say the BH’s will convert billions and sell to PI’s.
As painful as it is the financial mechanics are working through, there is not a single person who probably believes COPL is only worth this current market cap. Someone on this news has just basically said FU and has made enough in the past on conversions to dump the lot it seems, and with the news yesterday liquidity to do it is not available so you we get this poor result.
Duster, stop suggesting unreasonable bopd for November. Is was 1100 bopd mid November so even a 1200bopd for November means that the second half of November was around 1300 which is a big change in a few days.
What we need is the forward projection and the current bopd when they report to us, November average will not be impressive as it can’t be. 1600-1700 average for November starting at an average 1100 50% through the month would be monumental let alone “you would ok with that”
Stas, exactly the right approach. Share holder groups are not that useful historically from my opinion.
The value is easy to see, look at the price we purchased CUDA for and then look at our market cap and that was purchasing CUDA in a depressed state on about $2 a barrel.
The next communication from COPL is key and the next actions from the BH’s even more so, if they want to keep trashing it below this market cap and have CI companies pop up all over the place then some serious questions will be asked.
The JV cost was never baked in so ultimately we should be easily at a £50m market cap with a production plan in broad day light so let’s see where we are early JAN.
Art123, the GGS does not cause increased production it allows increased injection rates, which in turn increases production. The pressure increases started in mid October and typically before took 6 weeks to impact production and we are now at about 8-9 weeks so improvements over 1100 should be seen.
Stas, there is a difference with what someone feels and When someone would take action via channels that make a difference.
I assume you have already started a meaningful scrutiny of the dealings then with an entity that can have an outcome or just moaning here?
The JV could always not conclude but the key is what happens now. If we get a poor production update (making detail) and or the price continues at this laughable market cap my view was people will push moaning to the next step
Yes it was an over reaction but it was also fully understandable and although I was expecting to be 20% down by the day end it was what it was.
The company has a market cap of £9m. I have a small company where they are in the DFS phase in my portfolio and it’s higher than here based on potential speculation on future value etc. COPL are at the phase of a new GGS and ramping up pressures, and if they hit the magic numbers, which were achieved with a poor GGS, then they can go profitable in the new year. Then take the booked resources / reserves and £9m becomes more ludicrous.
However we were at these low levels due to BH’s so now I guess we are in a position that once the dust settles from yesterdays news the BH’s will set the market cap / SP again for their reasons.
To be honest any significant drop from here and I would imagine 95% of the share holder base would be declaring some form of skullduggery to a level that would probably involve professionals looking at the company and its dealings.
Whether we like it or not the NDA / LOI will have wording to prevent all disclosure so I am sure you were not expecting a more detailed explanation today? That said some detail on which party decided enough was enough and some detail on the reasoning should have been included yesterday as the RNA was very abrupt and poorly announced in my view.