Let’s see what happens.
I think with the positive volume on Friday it suggested some positive progress has been made on something, now the price is back in control on a lower vwap let’s see if we get a larger than usual bh interest conversion to provide some shares to certain entities.
I assume people commenting on the production figures don’t read RNA’s? It’s been known from the company already.!!!
One thing i will say is that it seems they have about 3 sessions to knock the large volume day into touch via some large reported trades, cancelled large trades, and the usually timely sells.
Market cap is a joke and if we get another fundraiser event in early qtr 1 that again brings down the BH conversion price I think a book could be written on how a listed company is used to make money for the few, with zero regard or consideration for all share holders
Trans, what a ridiculous question but for what is worth my assumption has been since the LOI, I expected 10-12 weeks for that to allow them to reach heads of terms and then from heads of terms I expected 8-12 weeks for legal contracts but that really depends on the complexity of the agreement, QTY of legal entities involved, and the legal involvement up-to that point.
So using the above we are about to enter the phase where I thought it could be concluded between now and mid Jan but as Finn mentioned it’s a guess based on some understanding of HoTs from another industry.
That interestingly tied in with the latest finance they sorted out based on no production increase so maybe the company was also thinking the same, with the expected increase in production being their comfort blanket if things pushed on beyond that.
They have also mentioned many times further evaluation is being done against the JV in official RNA announcements. I guess if the wells where never going to affect the bottom line in cost or revenue then there is a decent argument against announcing anything as it makes no material difference to the bottom line.
Right so that’s fine the answer is no one knows for sure, which is a more than ok answer as we can only deal with the information provided by the company and the rest is conjecture.
My personal view is that if the wells where drilled there were not paid to be done by COPL, or revenue would be seen as we need revenue so there would be no point holding it back in times of need. So that leaves us with drilled, tested, and shutoff or they are producing and others are seeing the benefit short term, with a view that it comes back to COPL on completion of a JV agreement. I suspect the wells to a couple of things for the JV and that is help prove our some data for a key area but also prove that COPL can self fund going forward.
Basically none of us know hence when I see predictions of 10p on announcement of JV it’s nonsense as it could be 2p, 10p, 30p or £2 there is just n way of knowing till the scale, terms, and ongoing JV relationship is known.
The only thing I know is at the current market cap even without the oil find the market cap is so disconnected it’s unreal and hence I believe life changing.
Tilburn, I can see there is no declared financial impact from the wells and all communication from COPL assumes nothing from the wells hence they are saying funded to qtr 1 2024.
If the wells are producing and at a decent rate, which I expect they will be, then where is the current revenue going as it’s not being used by COPL as they had to do the recent funding where 2 horizontals would have potential meant that is not required.
I get what a confidential well is, I don’t understand if it’s producing how the revenue/cash flow generated is dealt with.
Hence my assumption if they were done they would have been tested and then turned off.
Stas, my questions were based on revenue from the wells.
For instance is the assumption they are drilled, tested and the shut off as COPL are not seeing any revenue advantage of 2 horizontals.
If they are shut off and COPL need the revenue then why not turn them to producing?
2 horizontal wells have the potential to change the production figures so why if they are drilled are the benefits not being seen?
When I say part of the LOI on the JV, I am basically saying it allows the JV partner to confirm if COPL can be a self funding partner via the 2 horizontal wells and that’s part of the deal being considered, but I am still sitting on the same side of the fence as Unnd, that they can’t have been drilled unless someone can tell me how the benefit is not seen in accounting.
Unnd, this is sort of my view as I don’t see how there is no material benefit seen to COPL yet and my view was if they have been drilled and then shutoff that would explain the lack of bottom line impact, but if you could turn the taps on and make a material difference you would do.
Something could have been done as part of the LOI, I.e. the JV partner put some money upfront to do the wells to confirm information, but again if there was an opportunity for revenue in to COPL I don’t see how it’s not being seen, unless it’s the revenue benefits of a confidential well need to remain in a sort of escrow account until the status changes.
Without the full knowledge on the situation I have to assume the horizontals can’t have been done as no benefit is being seen. Would love to be wrong but can’t see how I am.
This is a genuine question for people who fully understand confidential wells and how they operate in terms of revenue/reporting.
Let’s say there are 2 horizontal wells that are able to produce within COPLs current portfolio, then my assumption would be we probably passed the 2000bopd funded throughout all of 2024 milestone already, but the last RNS said they are aiming for this as an average in 2024 and currently we are at 1130 bopd.
If the horizontals are there how is no affect on the bottom line seen, is it because the oil is not sold and they were there to establish flow rates and where then turned off, or is the oil sold but revenue is not allowed to the integrated into cash flow or accounts until the status changes to producing or something along them lines?
It’s a genuine question as I don’t have the knowledge on these type of confidential wells.
That’s the dream RNS and exactly what I want because it gives some time normally to do some simple calcs to make sure you understand the news.
Overall the disconnect is currently huge and for some this has the potential to be life changing. If you’re playing if the wrong way and the music stops, because you were never the one controlling the music it could also be life changing.
The potential is there, the disconnect even ignoring a JV is significant, so my view is find the shares with the disconnect and invest, my average is now low and even 10p means my pension does well, 50p and above my retirement age drops massively and my quality of living improves :)
Spot on Stu, find the companies with the value disconnect as there is usually a disconnect for a reason. Here it’s financial mechanics and as soon as that stops the disconnect reduces without the company doing anything. Couple that to production increase and a JV and the disconnect could vanish very quickly one day.
FF, can you confirm which ones of them were listed as I don’t think people where trying to find examples of where “Dave’s Fish and Chip Emporium” had gone from being personally valued at £5k and ended up at £50k after a year due to its grand location and Dave’s guess at his value. So comparing multi bagging listed companies against data for all U.K. companies, that ain’t listed, seems nonsense to be state the obvious.
Tilburn, your u wavering support, knowledge, and posts are great and I would say I agree with 90% of it.
What we need COPL to now do is come out with the news streams that will close, what I consider to be, the huge disconnect between what the current market cap of COPL and what it should/could be.
I think the huge disconnect is actually the reason for people disbelieving what could happen to the SP. My personal opinion is the disconnect is down to financial games being played out but time will tell.
If we are still at a market cap of 13m in 2024 I would be very disappointed, but I likely said something similar about the company in 2023 as well.