Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
Doc, no we are not we are about to see that we are about to see what PI’s were just in for JV, and who does / doesn’t understand the company. We will also find out what the BH do now in the next few weeks as I no suspect anymore selling in not a lot of liquidity (in a few days) will not be beneficial to them so now without the JV sitting over COPL I suspect their strategy might need to change.
Money is not the concern production is the concern.
If production can get to the right levels in our production field, which is now under the new GGS and pressure increase programme, then COPL is a profit making company in months and it’s priced today to fail
It’s never been priced in, so the markets will do what it does but the current fields we are producing from and their resources/reserves alone cover a much higher SP.
With the JV gone the irony is the BH’s might actually need to take this up now to get to a SP where people think its offering fair value as with the JV not still there currently its all about the current producing field.
Trujack, to get to that level of share qty that assumes all are convert at around this sp, which I don’t believe would be possible as there would not be the liquidity at this level to absorb transaction(s) of that nature.
So after taking the QTY of shares at worst case, you take the positive side at its worst case upside. And declare it would be lucky to achieve that.
Time will certainly tell but COPL has a sp were it is due to BH’s and the deal they were given, it does not have a sp because the assets, resources, and reserves and potential is lacking.
Find the companies with the sp disconnected from value take a position and then wait.
If the company can perform and meet targets, which I think it has actually done since April, then the disconnect remains exactly that and one day the music stops on the financial side and the disconnect closes.
Not sure why prediction has been removed so I will restate it again and it is only my opinion.
End of Nov - 1300-1400 bopd (Nov average 1200)
End of Dec - 1500-1600 Bopd (Dev average 1500)
End of Jan - 1700-1800 Bopd (Jan average 1700)
End of Feb - 1900-2000 Bopd (Feb average 1900)
The above can be considered conservative give what could happen but even conservative it’s good news.
If COPL is funded to end of qtr 1 with 1100 Bopd then the above pushes the no funding aspect beyond qtr 1 even with reduction in POO.
It also the hits the fully funded for 2024 level around the end of QTR 1.
So conservative it maybe but it still puts COPL on the road to success .
If I am wrong and they ramp up pressure / production quicker it’s just a bonus.
Here is my humble opinion on Bopd.
I doubt they will go from 1100 ish on mid Nov to 2000 ish in a Dec update as I am assuming that they will take this up slower this time based on the disaster that was created last time they just cranked the pressure up!!!
I am assuming they could get to 1500-1600 quite quickly and then go up in 10% growth every 2-4 weeks to stabilise it and confirm no issues.
I really really hope I am wrong but based on the fast ramp up last time I can’t see them making that mistake again.
My guess is they hit 2000 ish in Feb / March and then go beyond that so by May/June they will have hit the 2000bopd target for 2024 and then between then and year end they can achieve more that a 2000bopd year target that they communicated.
Would happily have my expectations smashed apart by the management, it’s just I see the above more realistic. We all know what could happen with a fast injection increase, but if you were managing the situation would you increase the pressure quickly like last time.
What a shocker, the drop from 2p to 1.6p was a BH selling and not due to detrimental company performance as advised over the last week by people helping. Strange the help coincides with the period of time on the VW
Interesting information TIA, thanks for the update will take a look later. Maybe why a LOI was needed, because as I said normally a LOI is in place to provide the parties to invest more time and cost into the process knowing their is “intent” to proceed, which is then concluded in the contracts/legal phase.
Currently I can’t see how COPL can be doing this without support.
Prophetus, of course it won’t be curtains, it would be another investment round given the assets they have.
Also the GGS is not fingers in the dyke it’s replacing the weak link in the system that was identified when the field Injection rate was raised.
My only main issue with the GGS I have is why would no one understand its limitations before upping the pressure as I suspect with better management the bopd, could have been taken to a reasonable level and then the GGS updated rather than upping the pressures ASAP, and finding the limits, and then dealing with very low bopd for a year.
Basically it seems the best approach is to switch off, listen only to RNA’s from COPL, which should be positive but expect the unexpected I guess as we have been caught out before.
I get that Bopd, should increase and based on data it should increase but equally people can say it won’t / hasn’t as there is nothing from COPL other than telling us they will tell us this year.
Let’s look forward to the confirmation from COPL management then that the GGS working as expected has migrated to increased production and a clear plan on injection / output over the next 3-6 months with a clear strategy demonstrating why that is the correct chosen route for COPL as a business.
The reason there is noise is because the company have not to date filled that void, they have said this year for the update so I am hoping if there is the necessary detail it will change COPL going forward. If the forward looking prediction is low or slow, subjective i know, then I want to know why as we have spent 4.5m to make a difference.
Let me answer point 1 for you.
Having had some direct involvement with some investment/funding/JV item in the past it took about 15 months to conclude and the companies involved where tier 1 UK investment entities and they were looking to invest in a small start up. They could have purchased it all via pocket change but did not as that is not how a JV/Investment happens.
Go and tell any CEO of an organisation that you purchased something because it was just chump change and the relevant DD was not needed and see how that pans out!!! Also someone selling something might attribute a value to it that means it’s not chump change regards of what a skewed markets suggests.
On the second point you are talking about going backwards, which was all in the past and the next announcement will show us if that is history or still some issues to resolve.
Antha, so to confirm you think a 3rd party (or parties) signed a LOI with COPL to support a carrot dangling exercise with COPL to help keep PI’s invested in COPl.
Having the opinion that the JV won’t conclude is a valid opinion and until it’s done could actually be prove to be correct, but all the conspiracy noise around it is comical.
Lol, yes that can only be what it means.
I mean there was no way it meant that the information in the latest RNA is the latest, which said they will update on production plans within 2023.
The polar opposite radical assumption to yours is they are about to do a JV and will do the Q and A after that when there is lots to talk about, which is equally a huge guess/assumption like yours imo.
They are not going to do a Q and A if they only thing to say is what they have communicated to everyone as already planning to present to us this year.
Now having said all the above the company communication is poor, should be better, and even without new information I feel a Q and A would be useful so hearing they will not be now is not wonderful and my clear frustration is they spent 4.5m on a new GGS and all I know officially is its installed and working. After 4.5m of investor money i want more detail on their plans to ramp it up and stabilise it even if they are doing it slower than some want / suggest.
Steve, based on when they started injection, upto that mid Nov date I doubt much was seen as I guess that time was needed to build up the base pressure. However between now and then impact should be seen, which is why I was keen to see an RNA with a simple update to say pressure built to x amount and production is at Y, with pressure slowely being built up
I agree on what could happen with production and I would be delighted to be wrong but I suspect they will be much more controlled when upping the pressures and injections rate this time round so that they don’t find the new weak point as quickly as they found it last time, when someone seemed to just turn the taps fully open and then was shocked when the old GGS failed due to pressures.
Also if it was me and I was looking at funding and a JV I would be looking to get in/around the break even point and hold it there to let the production really settle at the point that shows value to people looking at COPL for a few months and then maybe do smaller incremental steps from there upwards and maybe even move the production slightly with the POO to really understand the field and demonstrate they can directly control production purely based on injection rates and other items they may have at their disposal.
Hopefully I am wrong of course and they open the taps up and it has a dramatic effect by year end, but even if they outlined a detailed plan on doing smaller incremental steps up and explained why in detail and provided sound reasoning for it then that would still be a good update from my view.