The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Illusion, yes literally $1m it seems !!!!
What’s the betting on a poor RNA tomorrow lacking in and substance at all or to be honest until the finance is resolved there is almost no point now saying anything.
So unimpressed with the management communication it’s unreal.
If that’s the case it does completely go against what the RNA said they were doing / have done so that is a very bold RNA to put out as it was past tense so there is some serious explaining to be done as that is significantly misleading investors and that optimism presented an environment for the BH to sell down a lot at the end of NOV and then once that’s done we get a no JV RNA and then the RNA from yesterday.
Just the information available from the company seems to require a significant explanation and if this goes lights out and / or diluted into oblivion then the fall out for some involved could be interesting.
Stats, I believe the same website that shows the recovered bopd for the period. Not even bothered to check myself so would need to do that later to check, but the main reason for believing the conclusion without checking is increased injection would lead to more bopd so given Nov figures it’s a logical conclusion
Depends we are all guessing (which should not be the case) but the injection costs were about $1m for the 2 months I think they advised so maybe as they became aware of the SL position they held that money but still was not enough to stop the default.
Like i say the fact we are guessing is embarrassing and the company needs to be very clear in its next communication because they must be on very thin ice now in terms of what has been told to us officially and what has not.
Stas, how about if you can’t afford the injection gas (chicken and egg situation)
Either way we should not be guess as this is material information and if they have not done what they said in recent RNA’s and have not said it is very material for the finances so this is a significant issue not releasing something that materially affects the company in a substantial way.
For instance if they said they were going to ramp up injection in the new year I would have sold some as it meant 100% finance was needed.
Illusion, how do you know and why? My assumption was they had not raised it much given the recent financial RNA, having told us they were doing it they should RNA if they have not and if they really have not mentioned that it is a significant miscalculation from the BOD as that is reportable information given its impact.
Probably balancing the system and maybe not had the money to keep up injection rates? Then again everything is a guess as the company are inept at providing meaningful plans and updates. Even if bad investors deserve to know but we get told nothing about operations.
Correct Vale, and the RNS in stating what it did in terms of insiders also suggests discussions on resolution (placing/financing) are advanced to resolve and this was letting the markets know.
I am making the assumption as always we are at this price for a reason and let’s be honest it will be because this is where a shark will give some financing, make a killing and move on.
If that’s sorted and the production update is not horrendous we will get back to £15m market cap quickly and the SP at that point will depend on what the new financing has done. I prey for a loan with no dilution as that will show great support but with the people involved it seems impossible, judging by past outcomes.
My assumption it’s here now is because this is either the finance figure that will be used to sort the mess out, it’s going under, or they want to release news like we are pleased to announce a placing at .5p and that is at an XX% premium to todays price.
Or the BH is keeping it low and their hat in the ring to the SL will be a huge conversion of bonds with associated interest payments that takes them to XX% of the company and then force them to offer 1p for the company as our savour. Who knows because it ain’t the PI’s given the lack of detail we are given about anything.
Usually if it gets in a bun fight there is someone who knows stuff that did not get any upside out of anything and the real situation becomes clear.
To be very clear though my expectation is a placing at this level along with the production update in the near future, but that’s no from knowing, it’s just the best I can piece together given the appalling nature of communication from the company, so obviously could be wrong
Either way if this goes to pot, there seems to be a huge amount of breadcrumbs, trading patterns, and announcements that should see some suffering. Hopefully someone comes to the conclusion enough milking has been done and now let’s try and have a period of even attempting to look like PI’s are important.
I really enjoy the way that if there was not enough to worry about the mm’s swing the price by a ridiculous amount just to have a final giggle or an attempt to get more shares sold, maybe some is collecting know the finance is coming and that how they will make the money.
It’s been a game since the RNA came out. My personal view is the SL and BH are again slightly clashing on the finances going forward and this COPL had not choice but to put that announcement out.
I suspect the BH can’t call it a day at this point without losing based on what has been converted, and they can’t really convert at this level now so they will be keen for a resolution so just a case of getting the SL and BH to agree. All the talk of SL wanting the asset of the JVP picking up on the cheap is nonsense because if it goes to admin then anyone can through there hat in the ring and the SL certainly does not want an asset to buy off admin and sell, they just what their cash full stop.
I would give a decent sum of cash to know what’s happening in the background right now.
I recon this can be made into a Hollywood movie, so if it fails I might buy the shell and the documentation and get to work, it would make a fortune.
The positive from all this experience is to be honest I had become a little emotionally attached to COPL and as such was over exposed in my SIPP, I have accepted the drop and done a little clean up in the SIPP and reduced some exposure areas and rebalanced the portfolio more on the safe side of dividend shares. Hard lesson but even if this goes bust now it’s important to learn that lesson for myself and I know the changes yesterday / today on my portfolio won’t bring the lose back tomorrow but will in 5 years so a good lesson.
Although I still believe it’s not lost here and they will get finance and believe the plan was to just get the placing / production out in one go and some others have found out and hence they had to drop the RNA out yesterday as they already know the position they were in.
As always the next few weeks will answer the point on COPL and the next few years on my portfolio reshuffle.
From recent RNA the increase should have started around late Nov early Dec but again with out knowing their injection strategy we basically know nothing which is dreadful. My assumption after yesterday was they are working a placing / finance through and the production was going to be part of that update to bring some joy. I.e combined placing and production update.
Of course there is a chance this will be trading and my presonal view is it is more likely it will be than won’t be for various reasons. I of course can be wrong.
If I thought different I would sell now.
The opinions on the GGS not working are interesting, but people get confused on what causes a production uplift. The GGS is working fine, they have told us that officially and evidence suggests it is.
We don’t know what production is doing as it’s linked to the injection rates and the company is yet to give us guidance, much to my annoyance, but my assumption is there was some uplift up that stalled a little as not enough money to increase injection in the short term even if it causes a revenue uplift not far after.