RE: Positive sign10 Apr 2022 13:18
It's a good article that highlighting what happened previously with Afghanistan.
Given the fact that the Russians missed out on the quick element of surprise, "in and out" win they had hoped for, and given the enormous size of the country of Ukraine itself it is clear to see that they simple do not possess the military staff and resources needed to be able to take and hold the full or even a majority swathe of the country. Silver medal would be in the East or South for saving face win? if they are lucky.
I however wouldn't bank on that what with the tactics, resilience and success of the Ukranian army to date as an inferior force both in terms of numbers and arms. Now those tactics are coupled with a further injection of western re-arming and weaponry, of increasing sophistication: Bayraktar TB2 Drones, Kamikaze drones, Anti-air missile defence systems, Anti-ship missiles, Long range artillery, tanks, armoured vehicles, small arms. Seized Russian military hardware there also to turn on the aggressors (e.g thermobaric weapons)
This for me ends in a peace deal imminently or at most has one more battle which I think the Ukranians would win given the now more level playing field.
Don't forget over and above all this
*Tough economic sanctions on Russia
*Tough sanctions on Oligarchs and all those involved, and connected with either.
*International condemnation and isolation
* Persona non grata re diplomatic expulsions
* War crimes investigations ongoing