Member Info for latpulldown

HH I have given you the most obvious answer and I don't intend to elaborate on that or discuss it any further. Its straightforward.

If I was a predator in the market to buy a company my decision would be firstly based on what revenue it was bringing in and the ensuing profit. That being versus the price I was paying. Thereby letting me know an approximate yield on my money. I'd then delve deeper into cost, potential for cost savings, synergies and efficiencies...

Watch how quickly upwards the Berenberg valuation will change when peace emerges.

Fwiw, having seen the now virtually total withdrawal of all Russian forces around the North and East of Kiev I do actually take them on their word that they may have been withdrawing those forces to engender trust in the peace negotiations. It is just a shame the actual mess that has been left behind by the footsoldiers of the war. That said they seemed to be in agreement on all points bar one.

The ensuing international condemnation and fallout (more sanctions, expelled diplomats and ambassadors (persona non gratia) suspended from the UN Human Rights Council (tomorrow) and provision of more and longer range and advanced weaponry might just cushion their demands sufficiently enough now to get things over the line. That ultimately is what all these sanctions and other measures, in part or wholly, seek to achieve.

If I may just add HH. Berenberg seem to be all over the place with their valuations.

On only the 14th Feb Berenberg were reiterating POLY as a Buy at 1500p (when consensus between many brokers was 1400p to 1500p)

Then on 24th Feb (the exact day Russia invades Ukraine) Berenberg revised the previous figure to 1000p

I certainly wouldn't be engaging for advice on any of my funds and if anything it only serves to emphasise the rebound potential back up on any peace deal or other solution.

Each to their own.

Heres Hopin.

There are all different metrics being used in Berenbergs calculations and those of POLY.

However

Kahazakstan Production Berenberg have as 30%.
Poly have their revenue from that production at 48%. (2021)

All Poly gold prior to this invasion / war was sold on the world market at world market prices so it would be 48% production leading to 48% revenue.

The two simply don't equate and Berenberg are under estimating the Khazakstan assets.

Thanks for posting and there seems to be a bit of a glaring mistake in the Berenberg calculation.

Berenberg
" A key decision that will need to be made is whether to split the business into its Russian and Kazakh assets, with the latter accounting for 35% of our NAV and 30% of group production."

From POLY themselves (9th March 22)

"In 2021, Kazakhstan operations generated 43% of the Group’s Adjusted EBITDA and 48% of its net earnings. Kazakhstan operations represent 40% (12 Moz) of Polymetal’s gold equivalent reserves."

So if Berenberg are saying that it has "changed its valuation to be based on the NAV of the Kazakh assets alone."

Then there is an over 50% difference upwards from 30% to 48%. Poor imho.

That being the case it would be 480p

https://www.polymetalinternational.com/en/investors-and-media/news/press-releases/09-03-2022-a/

Its traders Fair Analyst that do read the detail. Or should that be do read the detail but conveniently decide to forget it.

On top of thet $400M and $500M credit line in unsanctioned banks they are trading at as near normal as they can AND GENERATING CASH ON TOP.

"The Group has approx. US$ 0.4 bn in cash and cash equivalents deposited with non-sanctioned financial institutions. In addition, the Company maintains US$ 0.5 billion of undrawn credit lines from non-sanctioned Russian financial institutions, while additional liquidity is expected to become available in Q2 2022 as banks gradually re-open lending. "

Good afternoon Fair Analyst. If you own any shares then you should impact assess for yourself how SPECIFICALLY things might or do impact on your shareholding. Not just hear the word "gold" and jump to probably the wrong conclusions. There will always be market makers and other participants out there happy to take your shares off you.

big-blue,

Therein lies what Liz Truss is talking about targeting. It is the stocks of gold that Russia already holds in the West. So when people blanket mention "gold" without lack of any understanding this spells out where the focus is.

Firstly 48% of Poly's revenue generating assets are in Khazakstan (which is not Russia) and this is equivalent to roughly £6.00 per share on the £12.00 the share price was prior to the invasion / war. That's with no allowance made for Russian assets.

Distinct from Liz Truss's focus on "gold" that is in the West. POLY's gold situation was updated on the 30th March as follows:

"Sales of bullion and concentrate from Kazakhstan continue as usual. In Russia, sales of gold and silver concentrates continue normally to East Asia and Kazakhstan. Shipments have been temporarily impacted by the change of freight and logistics service providers, which is likely to result in higher costs. Sales of gold bullion in Russia have been restored to new counterparties on terms consistent with those received earlier. Domestic demand for gold is boosted by local retail investment. The recent Central Bank of Russia statement that the bank will buy gold from commercial banks at a fixed price of RUB 5,000/g (approx. US$ 1,800/oz at the time of the writing) is not expected to affect Group's sales price materially as gold continues to be sold at global market price, both for exports and to satisfy physical retail demand."

If todays fall is based on anything to do with Liz Truss's comments alone then it is overdone, yet again.

You can only effectively sanction what you can control. Nil control over POLY selling
*Khazakstan produced gold
*To Retail in Russia
*That the Central bank of Russia chooses to buy.
* Russian gold to Khazakstan and the East.

Read the full statement for a heads up for I suspect they will issue another similar one.

Every chance that if sanctions are rolled out on "Western held" gold then the price of gold will rise which you might agree would be good for the prices that Poly realises in the wider market.

Slightly up today at

£8.76 (956.4 rubles)

There is a big difference between hitting Odessa with missiles and actually taking control of the city and port. Both, just like Kiev, have had plenty time to reinforce its defences and build up stocks and supplies of munitions, foodstocks and medical equipment. Easily restocked through Poland and Moldova. Good luck also to anyone trying to stage an assault from the sea as they have no idea what awaits them, including these anti-ship missiles which I know the UK has supplied. Adds to thelong range artillery, tanks and armoured personnel vehicles and even more advanced weaponry that is committed to and arriving.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harpoon_(missile)

Or CINE could get financing to buy a stake in Cineplex and back it with financial instruments. Cross the 3% (or Canadian equivalent) and keep buying up to and greed limit. It's something the likes of Mike Ashley at Frasers group / Sporst Direct sometimes does. Market would think CINE is going hostile and raise the price to somewhere between present and previous bids. Fomo in Canada builds. Then dump the lot. Enough gained to sit on and wait the outcome of any appeal. Never say never to anything in the business world imho

Being a Ukranian operation.

New ISA allowance year so greatful for the dip.

Saw it last night and enjoyed it. Creation of a new unique character into the Marvel universe or should I say multiverse. Clues in the film places it the same multiverse as Spiderman and Venom. Cryptic after film credits. Busier than I thought for a Tuesday later evening show.

Didi888 no date out there friend. Check the RNS tabs for when the last quarterly update was and add 3 months. I think that is what CR888 was working off.

Good opportunity for new ISA allowances and just took a few. Can add.

Never been an environment like it for generating business. Just a reminder that there is a hybrid warfare going on out thereout there.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10684925/Hackers-Anonymous-release-personal-data-120-000-Russian-soldiers-fighting-Ukraine.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60993635?at_campaign=KARANGA&at_medium=RSS

rylidian, refer yourself back to the prior RNS's and content yourself in the knowledge that the company is trading at near normal and is considering the splits. The rest is games. If you have other shares focus on them.

POLY has Khazakstan revenue generating assets that generated 48% of 2021 revenues and are worth circa £6.00 alone.

Up 20%.

MM's playing games for stock.

Now thats a good day.

You just know from the last hours trades that somebody is picking up shares.