Member Info for kylie75

Does anyone have a view on the gearing ratio / limit mentioned in the RNS yesterday? By my calcs, converting back to GBP for ease it means in order to draw down the entire Phase 2 funding, there would need to be £101m shareholder equity in the business. At present, there is far from that, in fact it's many multiples lower. Even after the CalVal deal and Tendrara farm in, we're still many £10s of millions short. This is perhaps what people are fearing here? A huge further dilution of existing SH in order to meet that particularly onerous condition in the RNS (along side the unknown interest rates??!!) SPA did not amend their sp target yesterday as they simply could not, they do not know the metrics to use in any recalculation, but it's clear to me at least it must result in a further fall of their 4.6p target from their 16th June note. I accept that the company won't draw down the entire P2 funding at the beginning, but there's no route to £101m or higher SH equity needed to mean the 65% gearing limit and take the entire P2 loan without finding a majic money tree or a very large further equity raise / 50-60% further dilution to existing SHs. Save the dullard abuse etc, but anyone with a genuine reasoned view as to how else this could work, pls challenge the above. And you obviously can't increase SH equity by increasing debt in case anyone would think of that!

So I’ve left it for a while, but has the penny not dropped yet? As is the way, these deals leak or are known by those involved and people ‘pre-sell’, exit longs or short. Most regular people would see it as insider trading in insider information, but for some reason it’s seen as perfectly ok on AIM, where as people should be locked up for it I feel. The reason for the sharp sell off. Read the RNS and do the maths, if you can. I’d say GL is no better than JP after today’s RNS, no better. The fact the sp closed only at flat is a shocking reflection of how few investors here read AND understood today’s main RNS. I’ve said many times, GL and Co don’t give a rats backside about existing SHs, all they care about is the company and primarily their pay check. If you honestly think otherwise you haven’t read or understood the latest RNS. The market has, or the clever ones, and no one wants to be the person holding the parcel that GL is sneakily trying to pass on to anyone but him. Eeeek. I’m assuming no regular ‘difficult’ posters have mentioned it on here as they’re desperately trying to get short themselves. READ AND UNDERSTAND THE RNS. #freemoneybeingshort #gl=jp

Fascinating day. after that RNS headline @ 7am, who'd have thought SOU would have ended up essentially flat on the day! even the grumps i would think would have thought it would hang on to at least 10-20%. be interesting to see the share register and know who the seller is.

Keep - i was obviously wrong on the timing, and regarding the timing i hold my hand up to that (not something you often see on this bb by others). I've been mostly referencing actual third party research and data, not trying to confuse or fluff up data to overinflate any bullish impact. There's a difference. Anyway, net impact of the RNS is consistent with my overall view which is there's a huge overhead seller here / a significant number of investors (or a major SH) that don't seem to share the bullish view of many here, and for me that isn't tripe, it's also a view substantiated by the dismal sp reaction this morning. hard to argue against that, i feel anyway.

Crumbs! fair enough, i'll run my posts through spellchecker next time before I post. I was in the middle of yoga doing a 'downward dog' and typing upside down, so apologies for that. a little odd that you pick up on an extra letter and a mispelt word, yet 99% including you basis your posting history has a problem with the endless unsubstantiated tripe posted by many on this bb. Good to know where your priorities lie!

They obviously highlight the obvious, it’s a good step fwd but there’s a lot of critical detail missing that impedes anyone’s ability to come up with a final net impact or change to the target sp

They reiterate 4.6p

Hawkander i agree, but there's a difference between the bank gettting a very good return on their loan, bond holders, 3rd parties like our phase 1 & phase 2 partners (Afrigas / CalValley) and shareholders making a very good return. It may not be a zero sum game but if anyone thinks these three/four types of stakeholders aren't chasing for as large a portion of the pie as possible (at other's detriment), then you're niaive at best. Shareholders are usually the last in the queue unfortunately, and always take the most risk. And SHs here keep swapping large portions of their diminishing pie to get these others on board, either via future interest payment & capital repayments, or via share issues, warrants and convertables. This may all be necessary, but that isn't going to be what existing SHs want to here or accept. Let's see. I suspect there maybe more than a few that are slowly realising this. Tough gig this gas exploration & production game. One interesting thing that no one has mentioned, which is surprising as it's actually quite potentially interesting from a value perspective is the risked (after 25% farmout) value SPA give to Sidi. It's over 7p/sh, which far exceeds Tendrara, I suspect owing to it's locality to demand / ease to pipe any gas into an exisiting pipeline network (as opposed to a 120km pipeline in Tendrara). The company should provide some kind of update on that, and the myhtical 3 well drill programme that I suspect will include the te4 drill - that was not mentioned in any detail yet and really to get any sp progressive what's really needed is a lot of sex and not much violence at the drill bit. Steady Eddie prodn really isn't doing much for the sp it seems......

Good morning gents. well that was 6 months minus 3 days ealier than i had dared think! someone is still aggressively selling into any rise though. any thougths? i wondered if the reasonable number of conditions, perhaps the gearing ratio or the 3 month time line to get it all signed off might be the issue, but the sp barely made it above 170 before it got smacked lower. interesting to see what SPA make of it, as I guess they may issue a revised note? off to do some yoga

Firstly, I am able to do all those calcs and only a moron wouldn’t understand what you posted. I’m nearly 30yrs into a career in finance. The only relevance to SOU valuation is the net. The latest SPA note takes the know a from the CalValley RNS and makes clear any other assumptions they’ve made re farm outs and final net % ownerships on all assets, including Tendrara. Therefore they’ve done that work for you. There c30m ebitda 2026 onwards is far better calc today than anything on this bb. It is of course going to play out differently in the end, it always does, depending on te4 and other drills, any final financing from a bank etc, but all that’s unknown now, although they’ve presented risked numbers which is where the 30m comes from. Why you would not reference that rather than a gross number which no one in their right mind would reference as it’s irrelevant, we know ONYHM and CalValley likely %s on Tendrara any way, as do SPA. Anyway, the old seemingly forgotten by many, adage of DYOR is never more relevant. So few actually seem to read let alone understand existing helpful material, preferring to be lazy and risk getting hoodwinked by spurious posts & posters. Simply compare the May and Jun SPA detail, you’ll see why the sp fall.

In terms of is 1.35p good value or not, I’d say with a clear seller in the wings and funding looking less rather than more likely at the moment, I’d say no. The reality is, JP did so much damage to both the reputation of this (and sadly other associated) company, and to its SH base, that the sp will in my opinion always carry a huge risk discount until such a time Graham can string 3-4 successes together, at least 1-2 at the drill bit. At the point there’s clearly upside, but we’re far away from that for me, but that what makes a healthy market, buyers and sellers (speaking of which, is there anyone that doesn’t think Marco’s selling right now? And if he is, why would he given all he knows…..?)

Oh ok, that makes all the difference. Obviously you hid that fact from your original post for obvious reasons!!! It’s like JP and Co claiming £1 per tcf, until everyone slowly realising they were being economical with the truth. Who cares about gross ebitda? It has zero impact on SHs. It’s obvious net ebitda is relevant to the sp only, but equally obvious why you stated 75m rather than the true figure in 2026 onwards only which is close to 30m…..as you know!! What a snake.

You’re referencing the wrong report old boy, but of course you either know that as you dare not admit the truth to yourself or anyone else, or you’re just not very good at all this. Try looking at the latest June note from SPA. Everything you pasted below is out of date and utterly irrelevant. You’re either devious or stupid, can’t work out which. The post CalValley report says nothing of the sort, indeed the ebitda numbers are 60% below your 75m, just look at the table! It’s like trying to have a reasoned discussion with Donald Trump! If 75m is your truth, good luck to you, but it’s not fact that’s for sure!

Not wanting to labour the point, the reason the sp has fallen 35% since the CalVal funding RNS is very obvious to anyone with an ounce of work ethic. Simply compare the key metrics in the two data forecast tables between the May and Jun SP Angel research notes. The very clear deterioration is a clear and obvious flag showing you how much worse the CalVal ‘farm out’ was vs what SPA expected only a month earlier. They had to decrease their sp target by nearly 40% to 4.3p! That is a massive red mark against the deal that GL did / ended up having to do.

I’m sorry, I wouldn’t normally bother, but you’re such a pompous twit on this bb, claiming this and claiming that, but you’ve just shown yourself up once and for all. Where do you get those annual EBIT numbers from? Certainly not the company nor the latest SP ANGEL broker note from 16 June. Do you do any research at all? I suggest you go and read and try to understand what they put out, and you’ll see you posted completely false and misleading numbers there, but no one in this cult of a bb seems to either care or understand that…….what a joke. The EBITDA attributable to SOU shareholders is nowhere near this. It’s in their table for goodness sake! Utterly unsubstantiated desperate bull.

I know very well what UT trades are KTF, and if you did you'll understand the link between that and my point around the likelihood of a broker working out of an ex-director's holding.

I used to post on another platform years back, but not recently, not that it's any of your business.

The facts are the history of over-promising and under-delivering here, there's a very strong track record. Few could deny that. I'm not saying it's certain, but there are many red flags now regarding this funding deal (constant slippage on funding timelines - there's only so many times one can honestly keep excusing that, caveats around what is likely covered in terms of the company's P2 funding requirements from the CalValley RNS recently, looming licenece renewal deadlines across not just Tendrara, and more). For me, and I believe we're all allowed a view, it's looking odds on there's a problem here either in terms of any offer, or the terms being incredibly penal towards existing SHs (similar or worse than the CV RNS terms recently.) A company with a mkt cap of c.£25-30m borrowing €250-300m for a field development is going to pay through the nose for that in my opinion, and I personally feel existing SHs don't understand that as they have a wide range of experience & background. I might well be wrong, and I do think the Tendrara field, now 7yrs after the last successful well, and the Moroccan people deserve a break here, but I'm not convinced it's coming in a positive way for existing SHs. Anyway, let's see. Perhaps by Christmas the company might have released an update on the P2 funding negotiations.

I have been in and out of this share since 2011, done well most of the time, but got caught on the sharp sell off from £1, as I guess many did, excl a few insiders, cough cough.

Anyway, those disappointments and that over-egging of the pudding by JP and his gang have been like a weight around the neck of this company ever since. I can barely recall a single piece of good or slightly good news that has ever resulted in a sustained sp move higher in the last 5yrs. It remains the case today. There are so many under the water investors with seemingly no more funds to gamble on this stock that it just has no volume to any moves, and those that play with stocks like this (there are many such groups of investors out there that do), can clearly feel and see this here. It's very obvious from price action, volumes & sentiment. For those old enough, there's a scene in Pulp Fiction when Marcelles Wallace has a coming together with Zed and his leather bound chum. Think of the company and PIs here as Marcelles and the wider market as Zed in that scene, that's what's happening here. Unwilling to be objective about what's likely going on here, there's just endless meaningless posts from cheerleaders and 'bullish until I die' posters containing very little if any substance. The fact is, in the space of 2 weeks the sp has dropped from 2.1p to 1.35p this afternoon, so 35%. There's no animal spirits from investors and a very persistent seller (ex-director perhaps?) Someone seems to know something, and the deadlines from the P2 funding are long passed. I noticed a new NED appointed today (at expense) to what, help find a new funding deal perhaps? Odds on the bank funding is slipping away I feel. I hope not as this company derserves a break, but in all honesty, an objective independent neutral investor couldn't conclude much else about the last few weeks I think. I think good news travels fast, bad news filters through various routes and is managed to minimise impact, that is what I feel is happening now. Another reasonable size sell on the close I noticed too.....