Member Info for Krok

If I were Pinchuk (unfortunately, I am not), I would agree to buy a 8% stake from Pope AM, increasing my holding to over 30% which would trigger a mandatory offer

Pope would most likely agree to sell at some small premium to current share price - they have been in this stock for way too long and till very recently had no hope to recover huge losses

Before doing this, I would agree a deal with Smart, at a price most likely higher than what would be paid to Pope, paid part of it via the mandatory offer, and the rest under the table

Would buy minorities at the price paid to Pope

This would have saved a little bit of money)))

Fingers crossed, this will not be the case

volga Gas has been a major failure for BVCP Its oil and gas partner responsible for this deal was fired from BVCP and subsequently from VG as well because of thus There is zero chance BVCP will spend more money on this asset VG has no major upside, though it can start generating some cashflow abd pay some dividends The only upside here may be in some transformational deal with another asset

Cockeye, you obviously have no clue. No offense Ukraine in many respects is much worse, simply incomparable. Russia, despite all its traits, is much more predictable Try to get USD dollars out of Ukraine and you will be shocked. To start with, even buying USD at market ratå is not simple these days in Ukraine Investing in an Ukrainian company requires a significant risk premium compared with a similar company in Russia. Look at CDS spreads, government bond rates, otger metrics you name it. Not even close Ukraine is pretty much devastated, unfortunately. Hence the valuations of its companies Those who claim Regal is significantly undervalued simply do not understand where this company is located and which risks it faces on a daily basis

Mbingo, obviously cash pile is better than debt or, contingent liabilities with no clear amounts and timing))

This justifies the difference between mcap of RPT and JKX - 120 and a mere 55 mn pounds, even though by many metrics JKX stands out

Mbingo, as we are patiently waiting for news which should move the pruce further upwards, I will give you an example that cash pile can mean nothing There is a company in Russia named Surgutneftegas It has a cash pile of almost $40 bn. Yes, billion Huge production of 2.0 mmbopd, obviously positive FCF, no debt Still, its market cap is a miserable $20 bn It’s because the market fully ignores this cash pile as it is all in deposits in Russian state owned banks and will never return to minority shareholders. It’s been there for more than two decades. And keep growing

toomuchshine, I have 15 years of oil and gas investment banking experience in this particular region, know it in depth, far beyond the knowledge available to the general public

That said, what I am saying is not facts but rather predictions. Whether they prove to be right or wrong, we will soon find out

And yes, 15 years in IB will most likely make pretty much everyone a multi-millionaire, what's your point here? Particularly, if he not only earn money but also wisely invest it

Garp1, yes, correct. We have a good upside in the short-term here from the operational and financial performance, which by itself should be sufficient to send the price to 50-ish level, at which point I will exit. No need for M&A. And the latter, if happens, will most likely be in 50-60p range anyway

100p projections are simply a bull****, have nothing to do with reality

So either of the two should happen but I bid more on the performance thing

Eddieskl, you may not even find out how much Novinsky received for Smart Energy. Sold for an undisclosed consideration. Full stop Jollygoodya, sounds more like wishful thinking. Believe my experience, if an Ukrainian oligarkh can avoid some additional costs without any consequences for him, he most likely will

What concerns me regarding a possible deal between Novinsky and Ponchuk is that the latter can buy out Smart Energy rather than RPT For Smart Holding it doesn’t make much sense selling RPT but keeping two other smaller assets (PEP and UGD, if my memory serves me) So Pinchuk can get Smart Energy and avoid making an offer to RPT’s minorities. He will own 78% of RPT as a result RPT will continue as an AIM listed entity. London listing is a sort of a protection from silly decisions by Ukrainian authorities Am I missing something here? What does the Takeover Code say about such situations?

This company is now making US$20-25 mn of cashflow from operations per annum. Even if only half of it is left after capex and other cash outflow are accounted for (in reality it is more than a half), still it is an excellent return given where mcap is

I reckon if Smart and Pinchuk may decide to pay dividends eventually, they will get 78% of it, not bad. RPT can easily pay 10% yield on the current share price, which will drive the share price upwards significantly

Savvi, fully agree. No point to look at short-term sp performance, unless you are willing to add to your existing holding

I am extremely confident that this stock will be worth 50p in the observable future. Be it because of an M&A deal or simply due to further improvement in operational and financial performance - doesn't matter. No brainer here

The two largest shareholders have a combined stake of over 75% According to AIM rules, Is it not enough to take the company private without buying out the minorities? Can they do it? Without a risk of ‘being in concert’

I lived and worked in London back in 2005-2007

Cockey, yeap

JKX is a different story. Their Ukrainian gas production has been declining for several years in a row and they only managed to compensate it with gas they produce in Russia

That said, gas prices in Russia are 4-5 times lower than in Ukraine, so economics is completely different

And being simultaneously in Ukraine and Russia is a wrong way in the current political environment. Sooner or later I think that JKX will have to decide whether they are a Ukrainian company or a Russian one

For Ukrainian oligarchs buying an entity with significant Russian presence make little sense, but we'll see

Vitol is a 49% shareholder in Geo, obviously they can easily help finance whatever deal is on the table

In 2012-2015, I was head of O&G coverage at a major Russian investment bank, and the merger of RPT and Geo was discussed once a year, at least It makes a lot of sense, but for two oligarchs living together as partners is difficult. Both wanted control and none was willing to become a minority shareholder in the combined entity But if Pinchuk buys out Regal, he can get synergies from joint development of both assets

Pinchuk is not someone who would overpay, that’ for sure Given the shape in which the Ukrainian economy currntly is, paying more than 50-60p is unreasonable 100+p is simply a fantasy, has nothing to do with reality Interestingly, Pinchuk tried to sell his upstream assets for a number if years. He wanted to sell 100% are originally but there were no buyers. He then switched to looking for a partner. As a result, Arawak Energy (Vitol’s subsidiary) bought a stake

Yes, you are right. 24p was in the original offer, which they had to increase to 38p So even better

Pinchuk lost to Novinskiy in 2011, when both made offers for RPT. Smart Energy offered cash, while Pinchuk offered merger with his another upstream asset - Geo Alliance. RPT board chose the former

If my memory serves me, Smart paid 25p per share. So they are in the black right now

I think for 50-60p Smart can sell its stake

So this can be the 1st step in Pinchuk buying out Smart and making an offer to everyone else. Fingers crossed