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Shares_to_buy, in your view, what can realistically drive the share price over 60p in the six month period, following the results? Realistically, without 1 pound takeover and acquiring some great asset bullshit No production growth (maybe even a minor decline), low gas prices during the warm season - these are pretty much guaranteed, which will drive the share price south But what upside can Regal have during the next six months?

Would be nice to get 5-6p dividend per share but unlikely, in my view Will need to pay almost half of the existing cash pile for that

In late December, there were large buys before January update driving the price to 60p. Was a good exit opportunity Don’t see anything close now. People afraid of the license thing? Or because the cash balance at 31/12 was such a disappointment?

Steven, you could have almost tripled your money had you sold and bought again So now it’s the cash balance game. $59 mn or 63 mn. Though not much difference in absolute terms, huge difference from cashflow yield’s point of view If we are on the lower end, forget about 60p in the next few months Gas prices in Europe have by now halved from peak winter levels

$61 mn cash balance for the second scenario, wrong rounding

A few more thoughts on the current cash balance If in 1Q19 Regal generates cash as it did in 4Q, the cash balance would be $59.0 mn. Would be a disaster for the share price. On an annualized basis, this is just a $23 mn of free cashflow If it generates cash like it did in 3Q, the cash balance would be $60 mn and the annual cashflow would be $31 mn. Reasonably good but not too exciting, probably not enough to go back to 60p share price If, however, Regal prints cash at $750k per week, as it now should, the cash balance would be almost $63 mn and the annual cashflow - $39 mn. That’s what we need in terms of the share price recovery

Straycat, thanks for your input I would put it a bit differently Period: 01/07/18-19/09/18 (let’s call it 3Q, for convenience sake) Cash balance change: +$6.8 mn ( 40.0 -> 46.8 mn) Cash generation per week: $588k Period: 20/09/18-31/12/18 (let’s call it 4Q) Cash balance change: +$6.5 mn ( 46.8 -> 53.3 mn) Cash generation per week: $442k So for whatever reason Regal earned 25% less in 4Q than in 3Q (despite larger production and much higher winter gas prices in 4Q). That really struggled me That news crushed the share price by almost 1/3 in early January By simply extrapolating 3Q cash generation to 4Q, before accounting for larger production and higher gas prices, the cash balance at 31/12 should have been $55.5 mn, not 53.3 mn. After accounting for the above factors, close to 60 mn So the current cash balance is really crucial. On top of production and gas prices, we now have one more positive factor - reduced taxation So we’ll see

The share price was 46 before the order on VAS was issued, so cancelling this order completely will not be enough to get to 60, in my view If that was indeed a hint from Pinchuk to Novinsky, forget about the takeover. It would be a beginning of the war. The possibility of the takeover is over exaggerated by many people here anyway. Let alone the takeover price Tge cash balance is something very feasible in the short-term, given reduced taxation from 2019. If the balance is close to 65 mn, then we are easily in low 60s again If it’s below 60 mn, then it is highly unlikely The bad thing is that after the results there will be several months of no news for Regal. And no news is bad news for small illiquid stocks

Cash balance is the only reason the share price can reach 60p again in the next 2-3 weeks What’s your bet on the early April cash balance?

Wow, back to pound discussions again! Hamsters require a 150% premium, will not agree to anything less!))

How do they run Egyptian operations when all senior management are based in Canada? From all my experience, this is sooner or later an inevitable fiasco

Jokes aside, the more I think about it, the more it seems to me that was a gentle hint from Pinchuk to Novinskiy The hint that Novinsky should sell Very gentle one indeed - no serious harm to company’s operations (even potentially) and the order will likely be cancelled by the court anyway But Novinsky should definitely get this hint Whether they negotiated the deal and whether the offer price was too low - we wouldn’t know One thing for sure, you wouldn’t want to be in between two oligarchs battling for the asset

Straycat, Pinchuk will personally give you his house in belgravia as a gift for your support of him acquiring the company at 1 pound Great company, large reserves, growing production, no debt - no joke! 50p in no time, 60p on results, 80p before end 2Q! Then Pinchuk comes with his pockets full of cash eager to remunerate patient holders from the Foggy Albion! Lol, what a dimwit Idiots like you are always easy prey and should eventually suffer. Sooner or later. Natural selection as it is I wonder if the 2nd license is revoked, will you continue spreading the same bullshit?

Looking at Ophir case, to some extent it resembles Regal’s A license in Guinea is not extended, over $600 mn of assets written off, CEO fired, the Company stopped properly updating the market As a result, the price is at all times low 33p Then the board recommends an offer of 55p When just a few years ago the company traded at 4-5 pounds, so for many shareholders it’s 80-90% loss of their investments And now the company is trying to sell one of its most prominent assets in Mexico. Really bastards who dont seem to be afraid of any litigation Regal is obviously a different animal!;) we all know that))

Straycat, my pleasure, thanks for allowing Looked at other threads on this forum, for other companies, where I am invested or planning to invest In most cases, the discussion is pretty thorough, the analysis is pretty deep. People do try to weigh pros against cons, consider the risks and opportunities This particular thread is a bunch of most naive and incompetent people I have seen here. Looks like most people are completely infamiliar with O&G independents and Ukraine But have their view, lol Here you go, get a cold shower now And for the record, I: - purchased Regal originally at 13 and sold at 60, over 350% profit - switched to JKX which doubled in the last 2,5 months (told several times other should do the same, just hatred in response) - bought Regal again at 45 and sold almost half at over 60 (was too short-lived to sell more) What’s your track record un Ukrainian oil and gas, you, allowing me to write here?

But there are two things which are really bizarre, the implication of which I dont understand: 1) Latest TR-1 announcement delayed by almost three weeks 2) This order on suspension is issued on 6th March, announced almost one week later

Re FY results, they may need to account for impairment. To do that, they will need more clarity on status of the licence Going concern will hopefully not be an issue Re the takeover, I already shared my view several times. There are two options: 1) buy out Smart, get over 80% of the stock 2) go hostile by crossing 30%, try to get as much as he can from the 17% pool remaining in the free float If he goes the 1st route, there are key considerations: 1) Would he want the company to remain publicly traded?m afterwards? 2) Would he want to pay minorities the same price he will pay to Smart? My guestimate answers would be yes and no. This means he will need Smart to sell him their stake at low price and then pay the difference under the table If he goes the 2nd route, then Smart’s reaction will be key. If they say ignore it, the company is worth than that, we will not sell and his move us not welcome, then the offer is dead Even if he manages to get all or most of the free float, then what? He will still be a minority shareholder. If Regal is then delisted, he will be a minority shareholder in the private company. Does not sound right to me

Interestingly, will they delay FY results because of this?

My analyst couldnt find a single reference to the order referred to by RPT No single mentioning in Russian or Ukrainian internet that PEP lost a license either

@Swindon, stop telling nonsense I have been bullish on JKX since my first day here I sold RPT in late December to switch to JKX. Told several times others should do the same. Still holding This has nothing to do with a potential takeover, though