Member Info for Krok

Re the takeover, that’s exactly what makes it unlikely - Pinchuk will not pay more and Novinsky will not accept less Two oligarkhs’s egos

Qwertyqwer, the day Regal announces a large acquisition outside of Ukraine, I am out of the stock. Particularly, if it’s well received by the market;) It would be a recipe for disaster They don’t have knowledge and expertise for that. Would likely overpay, on top JKX’s disasters in Slovakia and Hungary prove that perfectly. Other companies, including from other industries, prove the same Mid sized companies from ex-USSR are unable to perform well outside of their origin countries

Though I have been pretty sceptical on the takeover from the very beginning, I can’t but agree that the current share price increases the chances of the takeover If the price stays in low 40s for a while, the takeover at 60-65p is possible. 50% premium!)) look at Ophir The only thing is how Pinchuk will manage to get this accepted by Novinsky first

That’s my guess for year-end, based on numbers, not on dreams. And I am personally on the lower end of the range So not a rocket science to sell at 60p and wait till it gets cheaper (it inevitably will) But shocked where we are in terms of the share price after yesterday's update. That was supposed to be basically the major positive thing you could expect from Regal till drilling results in 4Q Cancellation of the VAS order would be great but it’s just back to basics, return to the original position

$233 mn / 180 mn pounds is obviously implied MCap, not EV

Target price is easy Regal will generate ca. $30 mn of free cash flow in 2019 (declining production plus weak gas prices next 6 months) 20% cash flow yield is reasonable for a small, illiquid gas producer with plenty of risks in this part of the world. At least, I do not invest in independents with lower yields This gives you an implied EV of $150 mn Add back year-end cash of $83 mln This gives you year-end implied EV of $233 mn At 1.3 exchange rate, EV is 180 mn pounds With TSO of 320.6 mn, this is an implied share price of ca. 55 pence If you believe 15% yield is more appropriate, this is 68p per share. You underestimate risks in this case, in my view

Bought 40k at 42.60 (10+30) Wonder who sold me and why?

Can’t believe there is no surge in share price and it’s still 43p Current EV is less than $120 mn Multiply 1Q cashflow by 4 (obviously, some over-exaggeration as 2Q and 3Q will be weaker but nonetheless) and you get over 35 mn of cash flow for 2019 This is 30% yield on EV Not right

Production - 4.3 kboepd, cash balance - 62.5 mn (exactly what I predicted) Where is my 55p+ per share?????

Nickel, I am just looking realistically at things, without dreaming as you do There is very litte downside from these levels, that’s why I own 400k. Something really bad should happen for the share price to sink further. And there is still some upside, partucularly if Regal reports cash as I mentioned. Believe chances are reasonably good for that to happen, given lower tax burden from 2019 If it reports cash as in 4Q, forget about 60p, even 50p will be a challenge You have just lost 9 months being a happy holder, zero return, as the share price now is what it was at reserve report annoncement. And you are still a happy holder and still shout your silly slogans in circles If in 9 months from now the share price is still 40p, will you continue to be a happy holder? 1,5 years of happy holding, all in vain, how does that sound?

They achieved very little in 4Q when prices were at peak, hence your low ball expectations. And they were pinished by the market in early Jan because of this, when you lost 1/3 of you holding 4.1 kboepd * 90 days * 25 US$ per boe = 9.2 mn 25 per boe for 1Q is pretty conservative With less than that Regal hardly deserves even 50p

In 2018, Regal generated $23 mn of free cashflow - 10 mn in H1 and 13 mn in H2 At current MCap and $60 mn cash pile, this implies a 20% of cashflow yield on EV Pretty much the same as JKX’s For the stock to re-rate back to high 50s, I reckon we need $9-10 mn of free cashflow in 1Q19. This implies cash balance of $62-63 mn. Fingers crossed

Nickel, I did not buy 400k this time, your attention to details leaves more to be desired I topped up to get back to nearly 400k shares. 387k shares, to be exact When Regal rose to 60p last time, I only managed to sell 40% of my previous holding, as that rise was too short lived. When the price dropped abruptly, I topped it up. I have been holding this amount of shares, more or less, pretty much from my first buy at 13p. Sold, fully (in December) and partly (lately), and bought back again Hope to be able to sell them all at above 55p in the next couple of weeks. The next few months, will be a challenge for Regal, once the effect of results is over 60p are now a challenge. Obviously, nice to have but unlikely You can continue to hold and dream, as you wish

Hey, Nickel, have you shaken off the dust from your slogans for the upcoming results? Rehearsed in front of a mirror, I hope? Great company, no debt, loads of cash, 27 years of production! Pinchuk wants it and he will not get it cheap! Am I missing something in your in-depth analysis?

And one last thing, Nickel, I remember very vividly when I said in December - get out of Regal and switch to JKX - you screamed louder than the others I was an idiot JKX was 30p back then, almost two times lower What happenned to you since then? Are you now a fan of JKX? Is it because someone from twitter bought it and you now all of a sudden see the logic?

Nickel, so far, everything you posted here is a complete crap, while I was right in everything No upside above 60p, no takeover, plenty of risks which can materialise any time out of the blue Great trading opportunity - buy below 45, sell at 60 Abd this year is going to be more challenging for Regal than 2018. No growth in production, mind you, even with 50 mmbie of reserves. You can however continue with your silly dreams

Nickel investor, long time no see! Licking the wounds?)) I thought you normally appeared here around 55p, full of energy and enthusiasm on how Regal will make you rich)) I know JKX’s assets from inside out, better than you can even imagine. One well is just one well, has nothing to do with long term. There will be no growth in Ukrainian production from existing asset base. Full stop And the results are great, why no impact on the share price? Stupid market not able to see the jewel?

I already shared some high level thoughts on JKX results in Regal’s thread but will share some more thoughts here From operational point of view, JKX is a Russian company - 75% of reserves and almost 65% of production are in Russia Due to low gas prices in Russia, which are 5+ times lower than in Ukraine, the Russian asset of JKX is loss making for a number of the years in a row Its value is therefore negligible. JKX tried to sell it a couple if times in the last few years, nobody even seriously looked at it Ukrainian assets of JKX are seriously depleted. Expecting they will increase production there is laughable. Keeping it flat is a huge achievement JKX had to drill one well, do two sidetracks and performed 20 (!) workovers in 2018 just to keep the Ukrainian production flat That trend and related capex will continue into the future increasing over time Still, JKX generated 20% free cashflow yield, based on the current EV. Good but not great, Kurdistan producers, for example, generated 25-30% yields, I expect something close to 25% from 1Q19 data for Regal. Unfortunately, JKX hasn’t disclosed their end 1Q cash balance (or has I missed it?) Results of the Presidential campaign in Ukraine are important for JKX. Tge current president Poroshenko and Kolomoisky are enemies. Zelenskiy, #1 candidate so far, is a protege of Kolomoiskiy. If Zelenskiy wins, I reckon all tax claims to JKX will shortly disappear

JKX has shitty assets in Ukraine and only 1/2 of Regal’s 2P reserves there, the Russian asset is of better quality but is only marginally profitable due to low gas prices JKX will not be able to increase production in Ukraine on the existing asset base, keeping it stable is already an achievement It’s more of financial turn-around and operational efficiency, pretty different from Regal, hence the difference in valuations (Regal is significantly more expensive) Still, JKX generated 20% free cashflow yield in 2018 on the current EV If Zelenskiy wins the Presidential elections, this will be positive for JKX, as he is heavily financed by Kolomoiskiy, the largest shareholder in JKX. JKX will be much more likely to win in the Ukrainian courts then, in my view So I continue to hold JKX P.S. Suggestions that somebody will come in and takeover JKX at a huge premium are ten times more hilarious than the same suggestions with regard to RPT

Yes, I do hold almost 400k shares, topped up again, this time below 40p Will start selling above 55p, if and when So what exactly can be a surprise? Just afraid if SP does not raise on results, it will be a challenging six month period for the stock See what happened to GKP today