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Well I have been accused of ramping this share for the last 12 mths - I have always tried to back up my posts with sharing my research and calculations - always happy to debate if those assumptions are correct or not

But seeing some posts here of crazy SP expectations in Short term from new posters without backing this up isnt helping much either

Some of the articles written since last Friday as just as much nonsense as the articles written after March results - lazy jounalism from people that have no idea what some of the numbers quoted actually mean (same as March)

The SP shouldve been 45-48p BEFORE last Friday IMHO (realistically - 60-80p) but that 60-80p will now remain the realistic figure SP will achieve (sadly) without a surprise RNS for the next 6 mths IMO

Im certainly not celebrating 43p SP (even though I have made a lot of money on the rise)

If RWC was selling in mid 30s then I expect they will still be selling for a little while

Its great to see that loss turn to many 000s profits on my portfolio - but I am her for hundreds of gbp 000's - but realise now that is likley 12 mths away not the 6 mths I had hoped for a few months ago

What I am VERY confident of, is that it will come - but nothing goes in a straightline, so expect many steps along the way - Good luck those holders

I feel so sorry for those weak PIs that got frightened by the fear tactics of some on BBs and sold mid / low 30s - you guys are not investors and should put your cash in a bank - but thank you for selling as I picked up nearly 100K worth below 39p

There will be plenty of opportunity to make a few quid on CPI for the next few weeks then we will see the shorts come back I believe so will be happy to buy those weak PIs shares again

Rinse and repeat baby, rinse and repeat

GLA LTH and please DYOR

Cane - I think you are correct - holders like AJ Bell etc are PIs holdings (managed through AJB / HL etc) those are not IIs

65-70% is the figure I believe to be held by IIs

GLA for tmrw - very disappointed with the sells/shorting this past 2 weeks - but still believe this to be veru safe and very undervalued

Willy. They bought last year circa 38p and again this year circa 44p.

They know the value the same is us. That’s why it’s even more frustrating at these levels. We backed a very under valued company and will get our returns but someone (hopefully RWC for their own reasons) are selling big.

Could be a host of reasons why. Some could be CPI and others nothing to do with CPI

Enjoy the ride. There is always money to be made on CPI - 1 way or another!

Net debt circa £400M (subject to the last costs of restructuring the business washes through in H1) with debt renegotiated over say 5-7 yrs

Hitting year end circa £225M profit and confirmation new contracts are in fact double digit profit %

Barclays didn’t change their forecast and surprisingly (again) have provided their updates BEFORE results published.

Do we think we will get a 07.00 RNS or a 17.00 RNS on Friday?

GLA and DYOR

simply cant see PE buying CPI - would need to be taken out by another company. Cant see SERCO doing it, maybe a US company?

BUT with IIs holdings, they wont sell it cheap - so huge risk in making an offer at say 50p (with all the costs etc incurred) without having indicative answer from IIs - clearly RWC selling means no approach to them for indication of what price will make them sell their lot, because they've taken bottom $$

So IMO, there is no imminent sale - maybe 2022 for that, but a buyer knows they will have to pay about a quid here to make IIs sell - but DYOR

Long weekend in Canada so been away - sounds like all is calm here, but I saw on Discord chat that lots being said on LSE

Anyways, very very disappointing to see SP where it is still.

Because of June Trading update and the regulatory compliance required to release that statement, I am still confident of Fridays results - I have no idea what will make this SP jump, but my research tells me that its worth 3 times what it is today - so I will be hanging in there until I get my targets on my Long holds and trade mu few grand in 40s - when we get there!

Any, GLA LTH

Cash - I am bullish - and if it is RWC they did have a very large holding

Its just strange timing as I see it - Im not worried about CPI and believe its half Mkt Cap of what it should be now - But its current news and it is there for discussion

DYOR

Hope its RWC for internal reasons - dont understand why now but we will all know soon enough I guess!

GLA

Morning all - bug sell yesterday after hours nearly gbp 700k

Lets hope its RWC still reducing for their own internal reasons

Lots of new posters - all with positive comments - which is nice to see, but in the interest of fairness to the likes of Passwind, ClubClown and Rentboi who I constantly called out for not posting facts (or at least relevant / current facts) also beware of some of these new posters with no posting history

Yes I believe this Mkt Cap is way below where it should be and the June Trading update was very positive and for that reason I have remained bullish

BUT - I have to counter this currently with 2 facts

1. RWC have reduced circa 3% only a few weeks before results (and may still be filling the hole of the over bought trades these last few days - inc the late trade last night)

2. (and this may sound petty!) but I dont like Friday as the H1 results day! - it worries me a little

All that said the trading update RNS will have had to have been fully substantiated by the Nomad - so I remain bullish (holding a huge amount of shares here)

All I ask is that CPI financial's back up the fact that they are on track and please have the refinancing complete

With todays announcement of Axelos cash being received in July - this may well be the last piece of the jigsaw to completing the refinance and the reason H1 results will be a week away, is giving room to allow the ink to dry next week

This should then push past 50p in the short term - with or without RWC reducing

All IMHO, and please DYOR and dont listen to posters who use generic quotes (copy and paste) without backing them up either way

David - I think it will go above 50p without more disposals - but agree re refinance

The cash mountain must be used for paying off the PP notes but the RCF and other debt will require refinancing alongside to remain within covenants

This doesnt require anymore disposals to get a decent deal done there - it would mean future disposals could be cash to allow dividends to restart

Just my opinion - DYOR

richred - correct that there are black out periods around material announcements- but in the instance of a disposal, CPI have told the market all about their intentions here and the same about refinance debt - that wouldnt stop director buying shares

Would be different if say a PE was making an offer etc

GLA and enjoy the coming week - as LTH, we deserve it

Thanks Passmore for posting as your alta ego - "Seaofbebt" We know that you and RentBoy, Clown know this business well

See you all in a few months when you short it again - take your profits now upto 50-60p then no doubt you will short it to 40s next time

"Am expecting some good news on debt, although much of this should be factored in. With net debt (post IFRS 16) starting at £1.08bn on 1st Jan and sale proceeds of £344m from ESS (the £184m from Axelos probably won't have completed by HY), it should be down to a little over £0.7bn or £550m after Axelos completes. The VAT deferral is £119m which will need to be repaid by March of next year, so that should really be added to effective net debt.
Also, with £440m of the £765m of Private Placement Notes maturing in the next 20mths, and CPI stating in their FY20 results "The Group intends to extend the average term to maturity of its debt, and thereby reduce refinancing risk, by issuing new
long-term debt instruments in 2021" I'm hoping that the £440m PP notes will be repaid, the rest will be refinanced/extended and the RCF will be lengthened.
Possibly also more news of disposals as someone already mentioned, particularly as their target for 2021 has virtually been met with ESS & Axelos, and their market update in June said that preparation for further disposals "is also progressing well" so it shouldn't be tough to beat on the upside.
Overall, I think the share price bounce is justified as there's ample room for good news on the 6th, but I'm long already so have an axe to grind like most people posting here!"

Seaofdebt - great to see you here and great post

Very similar to my forecast to 30/6/21 except
1. VAT deferral I believe had to be paid within a year of deferral, so assumed paid by 30/6/21
2. Assumed retained profit in period that is converted to cash (and better cash collection) will be greater than exceptional costs in H1 - so hoping for circa 50M extra cash there

Axelos cash will definitely not be received in H1, but it will be there soon

Totally agree with paying off those PP notes and I hope that the RCF and other loans will be easily refinanced at much better rates over 5-7 years

Any further disposals then will be able to be used (with retained profit) to kick off talk of dividends which is what will make this SP move greatest IMO

GLA & DYOR

I think "excellent" maybe the wrong word!

This share should be 50-60p(min) now - so its almost half its value - it will be shorted again after results is my expectation, until the turnaround spend is halted and profits are circa 225M (and rising)

THEN there will be talk of dividend, and that is when CPI will stop being shorted as price will rise significantly

I said yesterday that one day this or next will have a double digit rise (or close to it) - 2x 7% would do me!!

GLA and DYOR

Going by the drop since this has been announced, the market doesnt like the thought of a Friday either!!

Strange day to announce - dont like Friday announcements - but it does give the whole weekend to digest it

Hopefully 6 Aug ties in with some other timing

GLA

There must be a large seller to free up this vol of buys and with price still dropping - I added at 10k @ 7.8p, but now think this will go lower in short term (sub 7p even)

3 mths to be back to 10/11p is my guess, where I will trade todays buy and keep my SIPP investment for target 20p

Unless you have to sell, its just a paper red - wait a few months and all will come good Im sure

GLA

Good day all - as we get closer to H12 results, I am still convinced this will rise to mid 40's - however, time is running out a little if 4 Aug is still the date

Anything under 40p is a great entry point for the time being IMO

Ok C0ck on bloc! I believe we will have a double digit rise (or v close to) one day within the next week - that has been the format of previous rises - take a look at the technical charts for last 15 mths

Ok, its there to be shot down and please DYOR especially on Profitability and whether the cash from retained earnings will be positive in H2

I expect the majority of 2021 Exceptional Costs to hit H1 2021 as the turnaround is concluded

Will be very interesting to see what the level of profit/loss on those few loss making contracts is in H1, hopefully they will have become negligible or better still breakeven

We just then need the new contracts to show the profitability levels the business have promised we would

Either another disposal or better still, confirmation of the restructured debt, are definitely on my shopping list when H1 results are announced (or very soon afterwards at worst)

Anyway, this isnt a covid recovery, this is a turnaround and the trading update and the Axelos disposal RNS's have been completely ignored in SP IMHO

GLA LTH

If Thomas is here - has RMM replied to your email offer?

The fact they have $28M facility that they dont intend to touch, would love to hear what they replied to you?

Probably something like "thank you for your offer. Do you understand our company financials? You end of a bell.

Please feel free to sell any shares you have in RMM!!"

Cash - of course there is debt and I hope it gets restructured over a 5/7 yr period

Do you not know this business and its finances that you are invested in? Do you understand the IFRS impact on reported debt also?

But the Pick n Mix Bag of 3 have kept saying CPI has large debt but continue to not back up their comments - just like all of their other comments

DYOR and GL all LTH