Member Info for Know0

Vol Sold 1,342,352
Vol Bought 1,893,860

Still 50% more Buys v sells again today - 2 weeks now!

Cash - they almost certainly havent refinanced - but also there is no rush to do it

They have sufficient cash on hand now to pay next 18mths debt repayments -maybe longer

I wouldnt expect a refinance to happen until the 2021 disposals are complete and we know any with govt contracts will take longer because govt have asked for as little disruption to contracts in 2021

To understand IRFS Debt, you have to show on Balance Sheet Debt and long term leases - offices, vehicles etc

This "adjusted" figure added 500M to "debt" on CPI books

Cash mountain of 700M and profitable and cash generative - and with a few more disposals then dividends by end of 2022 (when the white hair bunch will be back in cos CPI is generous in its dividends)

Disposing of a business for 190M that makes you 10M each tear IS NOT asset stripping by anyones imagination

Cash mountain and growing with disposals of non core business at very big multiples

Axelos 190M cash from a business that was providing 10M profit - great deal

2 more soon and 3 more in 2022

All part of the restructured Non Core Bus Unit

Willy - they have their job to do - probably buy a few quids worth on the side of their day job - good luck to them

This was written in RNS 21 June 2021 - ie 9 days before H1 end

They will have known within round 000s, what the revenue was to that date - they will also have known whay May YTD profit was and adjusted projections for June

My 17 March post took CPI presentation and forecasts 225M for the whole year on Continued operations

On the same basis, profit will be greater in H2 than H1 because the new contracts dont start until April and some of the old poor margin contracts ended in H1

This is why the company says revenue growth for 2021 but flat for H1

H1 EBIT will also likely have significant holiday accrual inc again as staff couldnt take holidays accrued before 30 June, due to Covid and the fact more holidays are taken July - Sept and Dec (H2)

This non cash adjustment just unwinds in H2 where its understood all staff are told to take all holidays before end of year

Cash - most govt contracts (LT) have RPI reviews annually - often limited to wages etc

So EBITDA shouldnt be affected

But there maybe some pressure on non fixed costs - thats for you to adj within your forecasts

What is your projection to support your investment?

TR1 says he purchased them - thats it - they werent grants of options etc

It was his own pocket

No point responding to those paid derampers, they cant post facts that back up their rumblings

Definitely bought from his own pocket otherwise its reported differently (as you know)

It was his cash that bought it plus he will have Exec Options

agreed - although that mayve been contractual - but again, if he wasnt happy with it he wouldnt have

Schroders 1M at 43/44 and the recent buyer (approx) 3M purchases says more to me though

Not bothered at all about the price

Not ramping - just setting out my reasons to buy and hold

Pls DYOR and dont rely on a BB poster!

Happy if anyone has "corrections" to the assumptions

This was taken from the March 17 presentation

In truth, we also have 3 more months profit from ESS but thats not continued operations

Copied here-

I assumed EBT for new contracts to be 25M more than EBT for lost contracts - It was as I said a conservative number

I will post here again with what could be an adjustment or range

So my original post is copied and my [EDITS] as such

[ALL FIGS. EBT NOT EBIT]

Quick and dirty 2021 EBIT from my understanding (please correct my points as you see them as this will not be correct!)

CAPITA EBIT 2020 = 116M less ESS (51) = 65M
add Specialist Services (Covid effect 44+5) = 115
add DFR start up (15M loss to say 20M profit?) = 150M
add year on year cost savings 50M = 200M [IT WAS POINTED OUT 50M IS 2022. MAYBE 124M 2021]
add new contracts > lost contracts) say 25M (conservative?) = 225M [NAVY CONTRACT IS OVER 12 YRS - BUT ORDER BOOK AND MARGIN IMPACT COULD ADD 75-100M ie 50M MORE THAN I SUGGESTED]

[THEREFORE 225M PLUS (124M-50M) SAY 75M=300M, PLUS 50M = 350M]

if my above 225M Continued operations is accurate, and we assume a conservative multiple of 10 - thats gives a Market Cap of 2.25BN compared to current 800M

This would put the SP at closer to 120p

[IF EBIT IS 350M AT 10X MULTIPLE = MARKET CAP = 3.5BN - WHICH EQUATES TO CLOSER TO 180p]

OK - as I said, this is a quick and dirty and I am sure I have missed something - pls feed in whatever you can?

[SAME CAVEAT - HAPPY TO ADJUST FOR ERRORS]

Pass posts 4 new threads to get them on top

Rentboy & ClubClown etc comment to keep them top

Ignore their posts and debate the fundamentals - simples

Future Capita

We are well advanced in our plans to implement the next phase of our transformation.

In August we will move to the new structure of two core divisions, Capita Public Service and Capita Experience, and the third division holding our non-core assets, Capita Portfolio.

Capita remains on track to deliver £50m of annualised cost savings from 2022 onwards, associated with this structure, as announced in March.

Our half year 2021 numbers will be reported under the current operating structure, with Full Year 2021 being reported in the new structure.

Jon Lewis, Chief Executive Officer said:

“I’m pleased with the progress that we have made so far this year. We remain on track to meet our priorities for 2021: to deliver revenue growth for the first time in six years, improve operating cash flow, strengthen the balance sheet, and implement our new organisational structure. Looking forward, we are confident of delivering positive sustainable free cash flow in 2022”

The level of scrutiny to write this is huge - this isnt some made up words - its an RNS

Non-core disposals

We continue to deliver on our plans, set out in March, to strengthen the balance sheet over the course of 2021.

We are making good progress with our planned disposals, and we remain on track to realise combined proceeds of at least £200m in 2021 (in addition to the £299m initial payment received from the sale of ESS in February).

The first of these, the sale of Axelos for an enterprise value of £380m, which will generate total cash proceeds to Capita of £184m, was announced this morning.

Preparation for the sale of other non-core businesses, which will be held in our new division Capita Portfolio, is also progressing well. We will provide further updates as appropriate.

21 June 2021

MARKET UPDATE

Capita plc (Capita) remains on track to deliver growth and strengthen its balance sheet

Trading

We have seen an improving trend in our trading performance in the first half of the year, in line with our expectations.

Capita remains on track to deliver revenue growth in 2021, for the first time in six years, despite the ongoing impact of COVID lockdowns, in particular in its Specialist Services division.

We have won a number of significant contracts this year, including the Royal Navy Training contract through our Government Services and People Solutions divisions (Total Contract Value £925m), the extension of a European telecoms client (TCV £528m) and an extension for Tesco Mobile (TCV £58m), both in Customer Management.

As a result, we currently expect Half Year adjusted revenue to be flat on prior year adjusted revenue.

Our operational performance has been good, with a positive start to our Royal Navy Training contract and successful ‘go-lives’ for Irish Water in April and on GP Payments and Pensions in May.

We continue to make good progress with our cost saving programme which, together with an improving mix from new contract wins and stronger operational performance, will see the initial benefits of operating leverage at the half year, as expected.

Cash collection has improved in line with underlying trading performance and benefited from better than anticipated customer payments. Liquidity remains strong at £689m on 17 June, ahead of the scheduled repayment of c.£160m of private placement notes in July.

MMs arent shorting it (they maybe working with some that are)

They have 2-3 weeks to let it go, they are trying to cover is my point

Look at the the daily technical charts to see how this jumped very big in a matter of days each time it hit its lows in last 12 mths

GLA

Fish - no its not that high

Holders like AJ Bell, HL are us PIs that they hold for us (depending on your trading platform)

Hope that helps

Ha ha !! Directive you are so right!

Massive multiple on a JV thats non core - GREAT business - nice to have and makes not one jot to projected EBIT as its just a rounding error!