Member Info for kmjliveson

Not holding my breath for the SA gov/relevant decision makers to do anything "soon" regarding the Karoo. I have always thought, especially when the moratorium was put in place in the Beetaloo, that a great scenario would be the moratorium is lifted, the Beetaloo gets fully back into business, and as that starts to hit a stride, South Africa finally gets its act together and Falcon starts moving things forward with the Karoo property. I don't think there's any doubt that they would employ the exact same farmout framework there as they have for the Beetaloo. Wonder what the source was for Proactive to write that, certainly wasn't a quote from POQ. Anyway, hopefully we get great results for the Kyalla and remaining program in the Beetaloo and hold out some hope that just maybe there is genuinely good news on the Karoo. All the best

Good Morning. Thanks to you guys, appreciate your input. I'm here for good info and insight, not that kind of ridiculousness, and have no problem making the point if I feel it goes too far. Hope you all are doing well and, yes, let's get some great news from the Kyalla! Good luck and blessings to all, KMJ

So now WetWater is being called hitler - that's what is happening on this board that I have come to for some insight and thoughts on this stock. Are you serious for a second?! Ultra I have had no reason to filter you up until now - are you joking?! And here's the thing, I will keep my eye on the hydrogen technology and hopefully profit off it, so thanks - but you're a ffnn jackass dude. Do you even know what Hitler did in the world - any ffnn clue? That ****es me off. How many people died in this world - so many - because of that psycho, and you're being so flip. . . WetWater I continue to be interested in what you have to say and bring to this board. Ultra now joins the other moron can't remember his name, reason why I made my first post - idiot who was basically only being stupidly negative, constantly saying they weren't gonna drill the Kyalla while 100% of the credible info avail pointed to it, in time. Here we are, excellent operations and status notwithstanding reasonable delays (and I don't really consider the sidetrack a negative other than the delay [but what else is new with Falcon]. . . learn from the first drill, whose data gave more good info/data. . .) Santos gets a discovery off a vertical frack. Can't deal with this absolutely childish nonsense, and while you're not being filtered Wet, far from it, enjoy the exchanges from and with you. . . solid advice to you, again, is to stop responding to and dealing with these morons, the filters do work, but obviously do and engage however you see fit. . . Ok, that's off my chest, have a great weekend and great hope for the Kyalla operations!!! All the best, KMJ

Hey All. Really like that post newtofo. Exciting times if not still in such wait and see mode. My mantra continues - it is all about, all about, execution and results! I still have serious questions about what actually will be any monetization/M & A valuation formula/model for the Beetaloo asset (and the entire company for that matter) because of how low the share price is despite what imo has been very strong execution by Falcon of its business model. We know what we have in the Velkerri dry gas - with Santos and Empire adding a lot to that equation. Now with the Kyalla sidetrack underway - so much is on the line and the next few months are going to be so telling (and tense) with all that. But, but, but, where will the share price go and how much of a premium to that share price can we actually get? I just have a tough time with the suggestion that any future offer that POQ/the Board will accept will have no connection to the share price. And, as I have posted before, I truly hope what we are seeing now in the share price is like what we saw before the announcement of the Velkerri 6.6 tcf when it then proceeded to skyrocket and hover in the 30 cent range (FOLGF). With positive Kyalla results should we not see that same movement upward and better, then it's off to the races because those new support levels should hold given the stacked play potential. As always, all my best, KMJ

For my part, loved the vivid description by Oleo - and isn't it a given that the samples will be tested at the highest scientific standard available, how could it not be, don't think the poster was suggesting otherwise. . . Just enjoyed the description of what this liquid gold, billions of years (I think) in the making first looks and smells like when it comes out from way down and in there, Downunder, nod to the Aussies. . . These are hugely exciting times, man o man to think where we would have been if the moratorium didn't happen. . . Is what it is. . . My mantra is and will be the same - it is all about execution, execution and execution and great results, results and results, full stop, nothing else matters! (Yes, macro issues do matter but let's understand and expect these are and will be favorable enough). This happens- share price and interested buying parties should all fall into place - and hopefully aggressively so - though it wouldn't it be great (certainly most deserved) to see the share price start to rise during this anticipation stage. All the best, KMJ

Quick follow-up to what I just posted goes to the sleeping tiger by the tail phrase/usage - I interpreted and used it, borrowing from you, to mean that this risky somewhat out of control venture finally pays off big!! I make this clarification because, well, I am a wee bit superstitious and believe, as posted, this tiger will wake up and we will be well rewarded, but it has been a long and risky ride. Thanks

JamesL, I hear and feel ya, loud and clearly. From day one I have loved the underlying asset play that Falcon is – so I remain thankful for the great find and pick, etc. I have done well by some newsletters, particularly Motley Fool, the key is choosing the right stock recs and timing. The Texas dude is good and in some cases great, but like the above it depends what you get into and how, but I would say overall he is way too pumpy and self-congratulatory (he also gets a bit too political and I would rather he just stick to the stock analysis/recs, etc.) while many of his picks go nowhere and certainly this “Stock of the Century” has been in the toilet!!! But that has got to change, and now is the time. . .

Aside from what I view at too much hyperbole of that newsletter, this stock’s price action has been totally strange in light of the great prospects and execution, really. I don't think it was unreasonable at all to predict that there would have been more rise and upward movement after the post-Hess JV was announced and more concretely since the 6.6 tcf was booked and we know it's only 12% of the known acreage and with Santos going in big right next door. And here we are, with Stage 2 happening, which will lead to a more exciting 3 and the price is stuck in and around 15-16 cents, it’s just nuts, especially in light of comparables, like Cenkos pointed out those Argentinian companies. . . The macro O & G crash and then the fffnnn moratorium, 2 year delay made things very rough! Well, **** happens, right.

All this said, though it has been too long a wait, we always knew this was/is a high risk and potentially high reward aggressive play and for me it’s just become a major long term hold/investment. With stage 2 fully underway it has got to show some great results and Stage 3 even more, and along the way, finally, the markets and ultimately multiple bidders get us a price that will make the wait, frustrations and opportunity cost of this tied up $$ much more than well worth it – the sleeping tiger by the tail scenario! And maybe, just maybe, South Africa will surprise us with some genuinely good news. . . All the best, KMJ.

Hey ROCKTHEWORLD, great name. I share the pain in terms of buying in bc of that newsletter. Went in very, very big before the transformational deal which the newsletter boldly proclaimed would begin a massive movement upward in FOLGF, only and very sadly to see it go nowhere and the rest is history. No disrespect really to the newsletter and its author other than to point out that he was and has been wildly, terribly off, and I mean off, in terms of where he thought this stock would go, and that has been the case since I bought in. To wit, its recent prediction that the stock would be at $3 now - while it sits in and around 15cents. . . This all said, if you see my other posts, and some of the more notable ones here, and some Analysts, I have always thought and still think the fundamentals are there for Falcon and it's all happening right now! This is arguably the most exciting time for the stock and investors, I just wish I had gotten in now rather than all those years ago, but that's life. So, when it didn't hit big back then or after it's essentially been a major buy and hold and accumulate where I could. You can see my most recent post - it's all about the results of the now fully underway Stage 2 campaign and then 3 nest year - full stop. . . Also aware of the Fortem recommendation. My hope is when it's time to cash out of Falcon, Fortem is still undervalued and can shift proceeds from Falcon sale into that. In any event, welcome and best of luck!!!

We can circle around the story/reasons for this ridiculous price all we want and regardless of anything POQ might say or not say, do or not do, and he knows this as much as anyone, the main if not only thing that is going to move this stock are the stage 2 and 3 drilling/fracking/flow rate/discovery results – full stop! The absurdity of the stock price in light of what’s happening now and going forward in terms of execution and potential results is absurd, maybe there’s manipulation or other machinations going on, I really don’t know.

It got me looking back at the chart (FOLGF) and what totally stood out was the price action from Oct ’16 to Oct ’17. At the beginning of this trading period the share price was at a low of 4 - 5 cents at the same time they were the drilling/fracking the Amungee - NW1H – exactly the situation we are in now, though I would say now we are (should be. . .) in a much better price/trading framework because obviously we have the 6.6 tcf contingent resource and we see the continuous schedule of drilling events planned, the Beetaloo back open for business with the post-Pepper Report new regulatory regime, etc.! When those positive results were reported then the stock skyrocketed to 36 -37 cents. Then it traded in the 30 cent range, until it came down, bounced around and down and has been in this lower range as we had the moratorium and that ridiculous delay with huge uncertainty – we all know we should have been where we are now with stage 2 done in 2017 looking to stage 3 for 2018. . . In May this year Cenkos placed a 30 cents value on the Falcon’s share of the 6.6tcf, which correlates to this referenced trading range after they declared the 6.6 tcf contingent resource. . . Now, even this low range of around 15c, is still 3x higher than that crazy low of 5 cents during drilling and on the eve of results back in Oct 2016/2017. Uncertainty surrounding what stage 2 may reveal but still much too weak in light of the Velkerri B dry gas acreage and known 6.6 tcf. Nevertheless, it’s all about these drilling campaigns underway and question becomes if we get the long hoped for results like the Amungee-NW1H. If we do, will we again see a 5/6x rise but from 15c?! If they’re a bust – then we go gangbusters right back into the Velkerri dry in 2020 and get us more contingent resource there - then question is how much that moves the price, we shall see, only time will tell. . . Said it before and will say it again, the waiting is the hardest part in all this. Hopefully in relatively short order this beautiful bird - the Falcon – will properly soar and dominate its territory – Northern Territory that is! This soaring, truly and sustainably is just too long overdue and we are so close. . . Much GLTA!!!

This stock continues to amaze. Actually executing on their plan with Origin and actually now drilling this new and exciting Kyalla gas play and the stock is barely moving! . . . And schlemiel, hasn't Cenkos placed a value of 23p on the 2.2 tcf as part of their 41p target? I've raised the question of what is the true valuation formula or formulas that an actual buyer will use when that time comes to monetize, which is what this is now all about! There were some responses that appeared to have some merit. Then I went back to the May 2019 Cenkos Buy recommendation note, where the 23p is determined in relation to a share price target, and there they make sure to point out that this is for only 12% of the acreage obviously based on the Amungee NW-1H results. So wouldn't it be fair to say, just looking at the massive Velkerri dry gas zone and acreage, that a fair sp value is/will be some reasonable multiple of 23p (what is that, 4 -5x if not more?. . .) , at a minimum? Assuming Santos proves it up in their permit and we know the other vertical wells, Kalala S-1 and Beetaloo W-1 show the same Velkerri dry gas characteristics and further fracs there give us the same results as the Amungee NW-1H, this multiple on the 23p seems to make sense. Is there a further de-risking premium to add to this value - that I am not clear about?. . . So this should be our baseline. Now if one of these wet gas plays hits, then we are looking at that stacked play and layered cake POQ talked about, which should add no less and most likely more to much more than another 23p for each well/frac'd zone showing good/great results, and then the multiple on that for the remaining acreage, similar to the Velkerri dry. Additionally, remember after the 6.6tcf was announced, the stock (using FOLGF) shot up into the 30cent range for a time, only to come back down to its present ridiculous levels, especially in light of all the news concerning the renewed drilling program now fully underway. And the Cenkos note makes clear how undervalued Falcon is to reliable peers, so the comps favor a much higher valuation! The big question will be how much does/will a buyer's offer have to correlate to the actual share price, if at all, versus what is the true worth of the asset play in total, bc to date we all know how undervalued the stock price has been in relation to these fair valuation analyses? Again, I am not an O & G, M & A valuation expert, just going by what some of the "experts," which I believe Cenkos are, have indicated. One thing is absolutely true, we all are stuck in this massive waiting game now, on the edge of our chairs pending continued execution and results! You know you all have my very best regards, KMJ.

Appreciate the thoughts from all on this and WW in specific to my earlier post. Should go without saying we're all in this for maximum return so hopefully our upcoming drilling/fracking program 2019/2020 positions us for hungry buyers and payoff on the stacked pay scenario!

Can anyone present an actual industry/market recognized and respected valuation model or models based on how an actual buyer would actually calculate/determine a buyout price/fair market value for Falcon's 30%? The adviser who introduced me to this stock years ago has been brutally wrong in his projections in the short term (which 7 years owning now also includes the longer term) as all the great/transformation news has done nothing for this stock; it seems all this stock wants to do is either stay flat, go up some for a bit but ultimately fall back to new lows, and so on as we all sadly know. So here we are sitting on the 6.6 tcf contingent with the other wet gas prospects. Not sure WW if your analysis meets the above industry recognized criteria but I am ok with a $2 target. Unless the stack plays all hit, $5 seems high but of course would love that - again, based on industry accepted valuation standards and models. In the meantime, let's get drilling the Kyalla and Velkerri wet zones please with great results!

Thanks dprussky!

Great to see this green light. Thanks to many of you for your great posts/updates. It's all about execution, delivering results and a steady march upward of the share price! All the best

Thanks for this info

Fair enough. . . My friend in Dublin, pretty much the only one I have and who counts imho, issued that announcement a little over a week ago fully on the back of Origin's material public announcement clearly indicating things were moving forward toward the drilling of the 2 wells. . . Most of us are recognizing that two is seeming more and more like a stretch. . . I'm sitting at the table with WetWater and his crystal ball, and per my first post - at least one well (and just maybe 2, just under the weather wire) - and a big juicy one at that! . . . Said it before, say it again - let's get drilling already!

Quick but important correction - injunctions are issued when there will be irreparable harm that damages cannot adequately compensate for. . . And so on. . . Get drilling already!!!

Possible Gov has been waiting to see if the injunction was going to be issued. It was not. Article seems to indicate Gov can issue EMPs and Origin can move forward but if they lose at trial will be subject to possible damages. I know from my earlier litigator days that an injunction can only be issued if there is a likelihood the party seeking one will prevail on the merits at trial and if they can still have recourse to damages. As WetWater puts it no doubt Origin has a complete and credible record of stakeholder engagement, if that is what the central issue is, which it seems to be. Give me a break. And we all know the vast majority of all litigation settles before trial. Bottom line, looks like Gov and Origin can move forward. This is another sideshow and some noise by the opposition that can be effectively dealt with and very possibly dismissed. Get the EMPs issued, do a world class job setting the standard for drilling and fracking, prove up the wet plays, etc., etc. As stated earlier, seems last weeks announcement still holds despite this nuisance and noise.

Sorry, new to this as you know, was actually responding specifically to RichGreenwood's post (though the others all are good info, except for those I have on filter lol). . . Come on NT give Origin/Falcon the green light!

My thoughts exactly.