Member Info for kmjliveson

Short and sweet about 30 mins. POQ excited about everything TBN/DWE doing, and unique position of Falcon owning 22.5% of all the 4.6 million acreage, checkerboards, etc. Thinks TBN upcoming Farmout is potentially major valuation catalyst, on top of the DWE $150/acre, reasonable, minimum baseline for acreage outside the Pilot sweet spots, at least has us at double current share prices. Bad news, SSH4 first attempt at a fix was not successful, though TBN indicates it will be ready for the upcoming drilling, frack campaign. We shall see. Tom Layman discussed this and he kind of shrugged it off, not much else to say. Again fingers here seem only to point to Riddle but i think it is more a group problem, i.e. TBN, H&P and Liberty, but the buck stops with TBN. In any event, second half this year into next are going to be major! All eyes in the Nat Gas shale biz will be on the TBN/RBC farmout hopefully that blows the roof of the mother! As always, huge TBDs! Others may have more to add, no doubt. Said before, buckle up!

Quick correction to my post earlier, I guess Cavendish's price point is a target of 32p, still a serious move from the current doldrums, hoping we get there soon and then that forms support for further moves. . . One thing that I have found curious in all the discussion on TBN and as noted earlier, I get the buck stops with JR/TBN, but isn't it primarily H&P's job to get the drilling right and then Liberty's job to get the fracking right? Obviously, it must be a sophisticated, highly technical specialized planning process - what do you think, or do you know, that JR/TBN has done, would be doing that would be all that different from what any other Operator would do? Again, I just don't buy that JR is forcing these other experts who have bought into the Beetaloo big time, invested in and partnered with TBN, only to follow questionable advice, orders, etc. that would have the likelihood of jeopardizing the results that are needed. I think it has more to do with the still early stages, learnings and optimization based on those learnings, etc. And no doubt they are being aggressive. At this point, though, the point is still valid, TBN as Operator, along with its best in class service providers/investors/partners, must now get these laterals and fracks right, full stop!... Also, May 17 image of the flare looks very strong, there's also two shots of it in TBN's recent Presentation. Anyhow, hope the weekends are going well and all the best.

Nice going Newtofo! Buying more certainly has been on my mind as well though I am just fine with my fairly sizeable position now. VERY interested to hear what POQ has to say at the Investor Meeting/Q&A, he better dazzle us! His and Chair Naly's real value is in finance and deal making so time for him to bring it again and again! I believe Naly was very involved in the Cove energy sale! That said, I have positions in all the Beetaloo first movers, starting with Falcon, Empire and TBN (smallest). I really like Alex Underwood and while they are in the shallower zones, there are other pros/benefits and both Sheffield and Liberty are major shhs! They own 100% of their acreage in the Carpentaria that they are doing their Pilot at but they also have massive acreage in the Western parts, just NW of our Amungee region, which they will probably farmout. EEG has a deal to supply the NT as well and also apparently their Carpentaria gas composition is exactly what the Japanese gas market requires. In any event, while this has been a long haul for many of us, it is all actually happening now and going forward. By end of this year we will have 6 producing wells fetching the highest acreage values and hopefully the same happens with 3 wells in EEG's shallower/flank acreage that then bolsters the rest of Falcon's acreage. Thus, again, like you, I say hopefully/expecting, by end of this and going into next year the markets, some institutions, etc., finally start aggressively buying. While we long term retail folks are hoping for multiple bagger returns because we have been in so long, as this play becomes more and more derisked (which will be substantially the case by year end '25, mid-'26 for all players) these stocks must start showing a growth trajectory that should look very attractive to all kinds of more substantial investors. Then again, maybe Sheffield forms a group that buys out the whole of it!!! I would love to see one or two more analysts following Falcon and doing detailed analysis and valuations. Cavendish has FOG at 32p which I think is present value and gives the market some idea of what any buyout must start at, today, or so I hope/think (there i/we go again...) Bottom line, we are all buckling up as things continue to progress in force and with growing attention. A tipping/inflection point is shortly approaching! All the best, KMJ

I thought he looked and sounded just fine, another good interview by Underwood! An aspect of Empire soon to be Beetaloo Resources or something or other similar to what FOG was looking to change to that is great for FOG I think is that they are not in the deepest "best" parts that we have delineated to start production, checkerboard, etc. And I think that they are demonstrating that even the second tier of real estate can still be a major production source and again, Sheffield and Liberty are among the largest shareholders of EEG. So, that I think becomes data to support the acreage value of Falcon's holdings across their entire acreage position not to mention the premium for the present and near term drilling programs acreage in this deeper part, etc. Again, all huge TBDs!!! Second half of this year going into next is going to be super key, to speak the obvious!!! All the best!!!

Great to see/hear and no disrespect to POQ, for a longtime I have felt Underwood is the best of all the CEOs. Best of luck to Empire!!! And to our thread below, he discusses a soak as next step after stimulation before commencing flow tests. With Sheffield and Liberty major shareholders in Empire, you can be sure they are getting best practices in relation to what our JV is doing. Hopefully that is what's going on with SSH2 ST1 - but looks like we have to wait a week to find out what actually is taking place!

Hey Wet, soaking is a good thing regardless of underlying motivation here and hopefully gets best results possible, but yea, maybe it has more to do with the fix of the SS-4H and on that if it is more complicated, serious, etc., JR/POQ owes us answers as his press release/email after detected couldn't have been more clear that, to paraphrase, it's nothing to really worry about, abundance of caution only, happens all the time in the US. But also Stoneburner's statement gives very firm impression things are under control and moving forward. In any event, definitely all ears on the 14th!

Unlike previous flares there's been no real discussion on SSH2 ST1, which I kind of prefer, but at least we were looking at a solid flare for at least an IP30 timeframe for the SSH1. If the images/layers and SWIR are a guide based on the SSH!, for the SSH2 ST1 I actually don't think they have done the IP30 as the only definitive flares I think we've seen have been on March 3 and 8, with SWIR, other layers show something but not the classic flare as seen on SWIR on those dates and during the entire SSH1 process. And on those dates it looks like a robust flare - without getting into the minutiae, etc. - but it looks strong, and on the 8th its showing clearly through serious cloud cover.

I know Wet has mentioned the additional soaking and thus delay of IP to May or maybe later, and I think that is what's happening. Good/great case scenario is those initial flares we see gave strong indications compared to the SSH1 that they decided let's close it in, soak for a good amount of time, as Riddle and Underwood have discussed at length how the Beetaloo rocks and flow rates seriously benefit from soaking. Riddle also has stated, I think in the Yates interview, that if the flow rates from the first two wells are great/super great, they might be able to modify the planned next 4 well program to meet their obligation toward first production and sales under the agreement with the NT Gov.

We have the TBN earnings release and webcast coming up on the 14th. An obvious reasonable guess is that operational results and status, etc. will be presented/Q&A'd. . . My guess is that's what's happening, they are soaking the heck out of it and prepping for the next well and depending on those results, clearly set the plan for the next phase now set at 4 wells, still laser focused on closing out the year positioned for first production/sales in 2026.

Also, this statement recently by TBN Chair Stoneburner regarding new Board member Jeff Bellman (replacing Sheffield's Reed and looks like a great addition) is very insightful as it highlights things are on track toward first production and phased commercialization:

“We are delighted to welcome Jeff at this important phase in the business, as we move towards first production from our Beetaloo Basin assets. His background will enhance our Board’s capabilities in supporting the financing of our phased asset commercialization."

Again, still big TBD's with all of this.

All the best, KMJ

Posted and discussed at TBN HotCopper with good commentary by Fitz.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tamboran-resources_tbn-tamboranresources-gas-activity-7321707375290114049-SOJX?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAAAC2GHgB3-Dl5f6LSluvM9Yp9VmaAHursjI

Well worth a listen. At ~ 33 min in Riddle gives the only mention of the present well noting results are going to be posted shortly.

He's very poker faced but obviously very well spoken and detailed throughout, as I find he always has been (to wit, Yates interview). And while again, very poker faced, he is definitely confident that their plan/model is very much on track. If there are issues, problems, etc. his content and tone well indicate they are being and will be managed and that this "pure play" is full steam ahead. He does not seemed phased at all regarding need and sources for financing and looks like they are focused on a farmout once the present tests are posted. Does give a bit of a smile finally at end when summing up the the opportunity potential.

I know there are a lot of naysayers on this board about Riddle and I guess some of that is warranted. Not sure what Stephanie Reed thinks being one of two Sheffield TBN BOD members who just resigned?! Wet, you hearing anything that and all else?

In any event, there is a ton that is going to happen this and next year and, AGAIN, with this reservoir/geology, Sheffield recently also speaking that all they really need now is pipeline and more US level service providers - IT IS ALL about execution, financing, execution by the JV, etc.

We sit back and watch it all happen as the actual value of our acreage, at least legitimately on paper, unquestionably rises. At some point the SP has to follow! The fact that it has not to date is baffling, disappointing to put it mildly as I know many of us probably would have liked to cash out some, I know I would have. But hopefully at some point with everything really, actually happening now toward production and some cash flow, we should get a bounce higher and then hopefully that just continues northward, etc, etc!!! Then we have the ever present question of a buyout how that might play out. It's all one huge TBD!!!

So, more time, more sweat, more alcohol and the good kind of vape consumed... as we wait for results, and so on!!

All the very best, KMJ

Thanks for the update Wet. Execution, execution, execution!

Lots of other stuff to potentially comment on but at this point it as Newtofo cut and pasted from the TBN Hot Cooper Board, it is all about execution now and going forward! We can spend hours measuring and obsessing over these early flare images for SSH2 ST1 but what we need are the necessary flow rates now for this, and on the next one and the next. Let's remember and digest, importantly, these are still the first wells being drilled in this what the experts all agree is one of the great, special basins in the world! And to follow on that, I think no matter the results from these two pilot wells - and even if they are off, the issues no doubt can be corrected and the delay for SSH3 will be a great call as they can make the adjustments, but let's hope that all in fact goes very well - Sheffield, Liberty, H&P all major investors and shooting for dominance in operations, won't walk away. What will happen is TBN probably gets gobbled up, most likely at cheaper prices, but that may still mean a doubling or tripling if not more from the historically low (perhaps suppressed) share prices. Given FOG's ability to just hang back and let it all play out as the value increases, we may have more leverage to wait it out still as that all unfolds. Unfortunately, that just means more waiting for us long, suffering long term holders. But the asset is unquestionably strongly there, just need that top line valuation reflected in share prices!. . . If, what we ALL HOPE and EXPECT, is a repetition of the SSH1 results, then, well, all bets are off, but obviously that puts TBN and FOG in better negotiating positions going forward.

But to schlemiel's (great name : ) posting - the timing of these very high level job announcements are interesting. Perhaps the NT Gov/Biz decision makers, players, etc. know something we all don't just yet on how things are looking with the SSH2 ST1, and more to the basic point above, that development of the Beetaloo is going to happen no matter the results on these earliest of wells toward production and filling obvious energy needs!

All the best!!!

Well done, WetWater, your sources were right! And well done obviously to H&P and team to get the 3,000 meter horizontal successfully drilled! All the best!

Thanks both WetWater and Frackme, have a great Sunday wherever you are!

Hey WetWater, just curious about your sources regarding "I'm hearing that this next well is looking very promising, and word is the flowrates are likely to exceed the SS1H normalized rate." Following your post there are 3 filtered comment, to be expected. . . But, you know, seriously, these reliable, credible sources or just Barstool BS?! . . . Also, is it correct that once the Checkerboard is in place, if we don't participate, we cannot ascribe any Acreage Value to our underlying 22.5%? Seems pretty draconian given we actually hold rights to the acreage they will be drilling, exploring, etc.? In any event, all depends on the success of these first 2 pilots, so hoping who your hearing things from are trustworthy. Again, assuming good faith on your part, with thanks also for your Christmas and New Years wishes and same to you! 2025 has to be the beginning of the breakout, like we saw in 2016 but it continues! Good luck and God bless!

Understood, and I realize I was rambling a bit in the last one is this, but my point is that BS and his team must be apprised of all these pre drill plans and it's not all on Riddle/TBN, is that right? In other words, the way things are being stated here makes it sound like Riddle is doing things on the cheap or lazy and this and getting over on BS and FOG, i.e. ,the JV, and I just can't believe it, not now, not after the Amungee 2H. So, the issue more to me is that there are going to be drilling/operational issues, it is just going to happen. The key is that BS and team are involved in all aspects and it is a JV issue, not just Riddle, etc. But who really cares, we got what we got, hopefully the smaller frack still blows the roof off the mother and the 3H is stellar!!!!!!!

Wet you gone as if BS and team had no input at all and this is all TBN, which is must not be, correct?! We all went on and on and you went on and on about how now BS and team are actively involved so Riddle and team can't BLANK UP, well, so now BS has no responsibility for this. BS will be the first one to also tell you this might happen, and that's why it's called exploration and testing and etc. And also H&P and the FlexRigh and latest and greatest and bettest, do they have any responsibility are were they all also suckered by Riddle and TBN being cheap, again. Come on! Get real! THE JV is in this and THEY are responsible! And this is the deal now and going forward, these wells, in the Beetaloo, need to be drilled so as to produce the needed flow rate and clear path toward commerciality. Again, I think there is NO way BS walks away from this. But still, for us, these early wells are what it's all about! So, THE JV HAS to get the SS3H right, full stop!!!

Yes it is. Be interesting to see how Empire's drill times, costs, efficiencies, results, stack up against the FOG's JV with us having H&P and Liberty involved. Regardless, so long as all achieve the needed commercially viable data/results as these pilot wells/programs, I believe, will actually and finally begin the process of the necessary investor interest in the Beetaloo, so long as the other infrastructure and finance players are all lined up, and all signs so far point toward that happening, etc.! Also, Falcon getting on an American Big Board will also be necessary and looks like once the next 2 wells demonstrate the above, that will happen. Then it's truly game on! Been there before with all this optimism before major catalysts only to see the share price drop! But I think now and going forward it will be different and that must be our focus and outcome! It has been way too long!

You all should check out Tamboran's Audio conference and presentation up on their website that goes into much more detail on operations. SSH2 ran into some issues so they are doing a sidetrack now calling it SSH2 ST1, but all seems to be going well. He confirms flow tests for Q1 '25, expectation of 4 more wells in '25, setting up the gas compression plant and first gas sales in '26. Definitely a positive presentation with a few good questions from what were some analysts I believe, one of which was BofA. In sum, despite some downhole mechanical issues, it seems they have been sorted with the ST1, and making good progress in all material respects. 2025 is going to be a busy year for all players in the Beetaloo. And as I have said before, I don't think there is anyway Sheffield walks away from this, and also that his team is actively involved in all planning, drilling, etc. Though I believe I have accurately summed things up, as noted, I'd check it all out for yourselves.

Couldn't care less about Middle Arm; let's get these damned wells (ours and EEG's) drilled, fracked, reproducing the SSH1 results; do our reverse spilt name change, get funding for the remainder of pilot wells; selling/delivering the gas, etc., etc., and a bidding war that finally see's FOG/Beetaloo Resources, get its fair dues, first movers in the Beetaloo and sitting on top of 1 something million net acres of this massive stacked play of the best shale gas on God's given earth!

Or it's just traders cashing in; buying back in at these lower prices before the drilling and production starts, etc. Empire's latest public statements recently provided clearly state drilling will commence November with production Q1/H1 2025; Ensign rig secured and Haliburton frac secured; I will take the truthfulness of Underwood and Empire's Board over either of Tamboran or Falcon, though I am still very positive and supportive of TBN and FOG, though I think Riddle and POQ leave a lot to be desired compared to the way Underwood handles, presents himself, his company and the Beetaloo opportunity!

Correction: "things begin to seriously happen in the Karoo."