Member Info for kmjliveson

Interesting development if this can now actually finalize regs and framework for Falcon to begin making progress in the Karoo. Of course we need to consider corruption and local issues and whether it could be profitable, assume those costs and issues will create definite issues, but that happens everywhere in places like SA to greater and lesser extents. Perhaps as things get more active now in the Beetaloo and in a year or two as our value is genuinely understood and set, things begin to seriously happen in the Beetaloo. Great scenario is we get nicely rewarded with a buyout in the Beetaloo and then begin things in the Karoo, etc. In any event, gonna view this as a net positive at present.

That was the ONLY time that the share price was more in line with actual value, been crazy the consistent drift so far down. But on that the chart also shows it was at an all time low before it spiked and held for some time before the moratorium took it down. Hopefully 2017 happens in 25/26 and then some!!!

P.S. follow up, of course capital and financing is also critical going forward but per the very brief PR and Q&A, it looks like there are things cooking on that front that should at a minimum get us through the Pilot, but again, still big TBDs and more waiting! But I do think the trend is positive!

That's essentially what my fundamental thoughts are at this point. There is no way BS walks away from this, and so long as the governance/rules/regulatory framework stays supportive, the only real issues will be operational and infrastructure. The SSH1 showed exactly how to deliver the gas, that just now has to be successfully duplicated and then brought to market, full stop! The absolutely nagging question for me/us is then how exactly will Falcon/Beetaloo's 1 million something net acres be valued in serious M & A talks and what is Falcon's leverage. I think Falcon will/should push hard for acreage valuations as I understand has been the standard in the US so BS will be familiar and accepting of such a method, and that is what Cavendish has used. This said, we know who FN ridiculous the share prices have been, thus the need to get these next 2 wells fully proved up, like SSH1, and then there is Empire doing it's thing on the flanks, plus TBN and Santos. In any event, 2025/26 are no doubt going to be very pivotal years and must finally deliver us our long awaited returns or at least set a legitimate platform for it, where the true value of Falcon's massive position is recognized and rewarded, etc, etc! All the best!

Well summarized Odie. It was an incredibly limited focus obviously but what that focus was indicated some positives, if, in fact, the factors that need to come together do come together, starting with the upcoming drilling and continued de-risking as per the SSH1 and with that, apparently this US Bank will invest and sounds like perhaps bring in others, there'll be a reverse split and we shall see how all that goes. Nobody asked about the name change so that wasn't discussed but I really couldn't give a crap about that, but seems to make sense for the US listing to change to Beetaloo Resources. So, once again, with Falcon we are in need of good/great results and it's a waiting game. Hopefully Q2 is for real, should be for the drilling and results and then all this plays out on the backs of that. Again, one thing I am pretty certain about it Sheffield want so be the major player in the Beetaloo. So, let's get these next 2 longer laterals/fracs proved up per the SSH1 and then, once again, but this time it should be for real, it will get very interesting in terms of hopefully some share price rise and no doubt buyout interest!! Again, big TBDs, but the Beetaloo will soon be the next big shale gas play with Sheffield leading the way. I would be very happy, very happy, if we ultimately can get to the share price of USD .7 - 1, again major TBDS, but something significantly north of the abysmal prices we've been stuck at.

Good interview. For me, and FOG soon Beetaloo Resources, the key is this quote:

"We're drilling two more wells now. And then once we show those data points in the same area--we already have the money--[Tamboran] needs to raise a little bit more money to pay for the gathering and compression to the local sales line. You're going to see sales first-quarter 2026. That's the key moment.

Also, Empire is going to get to sales probably in early 2026 [They're public announcements actually say 2025, think he just made a mistake]. So once these micro-cap companies start getting to sales, you're going to be able to see the long-life reserves in these wells. You can already see what's going to happen."

So, folks, he had this look when he uttered the last sentence "You can already see what's going to happen." I think he means there he and his big boys are going to move in and scoop the whole Beetaloo up from FOG/Beetaloo, EEG and TBN! Does anybody think any differently? Question will be, as it always has been, what's will be the valuation, M&A price?

Gonna be a busy 4Q and 2025!

Hey WetWater. follow up to our exchange below, how exactly, what methodology, are you using to come to your $.70 - $1 share price by end of 2025?!?! And the more specific the better! I hate to say it but throwing out numbers like sounds A LOT like Kip Herriage (I did get the Falcon pick from the VRA which I subscribe to for awhile. . . He knows what he's talking about but has gotten Falcon's share price predications very, Very, VERY wrong). In any event, when you have a moment, it be appreciated if you could provide what formula/methodology, etc. you are using to reach that number, gives it a lot more credibility then just throwing it out as a wish/desire/hope/prayer etc.!!! THANKS

Appreciate the analysis and insights, WW. I think all the chatter, complaining about POQ not promoting Falcon is such nonsense, and I say this based on the fact that Sheffield (including his father and all the other Americans involved. . .) has been involved now for awhile and the other major US players, Liberty and H&P, are invested and operational there!! This alone has no doubt gotten the attention of any meaningful player in shale and gas and they all know Falcon's status - it's not very complicated and basically the key data is public. What more does POQ really have to do, give me a break. What matters now is execution, continued demonstration that it is the high quality shale that all data shows is the case! Then, the huge question has been and continues to be this: regarding Falcon's 22.5% what is/will be the true valuation in any M&A scenario?!. . . Main reason for complaining is that this thing has taken so long and the share price has been a joke, again other than that brief moment after the first Amungee frack before the moratorium and during when it appeared to act and trade rationally. But this is a totally different ball game now, however, major investors are still sitting on the sidelines, and that probably has more to do with the penny stock situation. . . One thing is for sure, there is going to be a lot of activity going forward and things are going to get very interesting in the next couple of years, and hopefully Falcon and us long term holders finally get our fair dues! Our patience must be rewarded! All the best!

Great article. Major takeaway for me is no way in bloody hell, no way, Sheffield walks away from this! Shows the great Sheffield connection to Australia, Dad seeing and being amazed by the logs knowing the were some the best he has ever seen, his first job was it was in Sydney, has crazy success in the US, and now here is he with all the invaluable, best in class, US experience and success, technical and finance expertise with the SSH1 shorty pointing the way in OZ. . . All the best!

And not for nothing, definitely meant to add POODS! I am going with the analysts views, full stop. If the stock markets continue to depress the stock, for whatever reason, hopefully there will be enough interest/bidders when the time comes. I just don't think an entity that needs/wants this gas, in these Asian markets, in this now gas friendly environment, will let BS and his cohorts continue to run and own the whole show. BS will start and maybe finish the bidding, but I gotta believe there will be others in there getting at this exquisite, multi-stacked play! Damn crazy with teh share price absurdity. Gotta be positive folks! Have great weekends!

Don't know why the post is all small case. . . Meant to add Newtofo alongside the others I find are the more credible posters at this stage. . . Again, all the best!

bottom line - poq is probably doing about as good a job if not better than any other ceo would do given falcon's business model and position in the beetaloo! ****gers, whiners and amateurs now rule this board, unfortunately, not even sure why they are on here, it's become kind of a joke. . . seems to me for a company like falcon the dsu/checkerboard scheme is the only and best way to stay in the play and add value in very targeted way as the play now starts to get very, very active, starting with the upcoming pilots, production and gas sales! i think most of the green filters and many others got suckered into this by bruner/herriage way back when and because now we all don't see the transformational outcome they promised/pumped, etc. there's all kinds of negative sentiment and just flat out blaming. i bought in big before the origin/sasol deal thinking, and i think logically, that there was going to be a major rise in the sp and then it would just trade like that as catalysts proceeded. not to be and that has been the ridiculous history of the sp ever since, except for, following the amungee 1 discovery when it acted rationally and was in line with cenkos's valuation. maybe it's being manipulated, maybe not. poq came up under john craven and has joe nally at this side, not sure you need better mentors or advisers then them. and come on folks, at this point, with the major commitment and full on interest of sheffield et al., with bruner's original involvement (think ultra petroleum), tbn's american move and listing, does anybody with half a brain and a measure of common sense now really think that anybody, any entity, seriously in the shale gas space does not know the basics of what's going on in and the massive potential of the beetaloo basin, nt, australia, a well developed and governed country, similar to the u.s.?! come on?! all of them, repeat, all of them, much more likely than not know all about it and have personnel following it closely. thus, it's all about, repeat, all about results of these upcoming horizontals, full stop! . . . key issue comes back to where we started - if the share price stays ridiculously low despite continued good/great results, versus what is a legitimate analyst/expert valuation, such as cavendish has and will do, and empire's/tbn's analysts have and and will do, how much does that handicap fog getting full value in any m&a context, which is likely to happen at some point next year or thereafter! again, craven and nally were actively involved in the incredible cove energy story. . . fully expect to see numerous green filters following this per usual, but happy to hear from ww, btob, wetwater, etc. . . all the best, kmj

Short and sweet response by Nally. Hopefully the strategy and operations presentation/discussion indicates an exit strategy that gets to a price multiples above the historically ridiculous share price. . . And for the record, POODS, be well, always like to see your comments. . . KMJ

We need more of this from the professionals/experts on all the Beetaloo players and definitely be great to get a couple of more following Falcon. Very well written and I would say conservative. I did not see the Cavendish report from a bit back where they put a 32 pence for FOG using acreage valuation methodology.

WW and BtoB. . . At the AGM, you two must make sure to clearly ask and gather from POQ/Board the following:

(1) Valuation methodology - How exactly does Falcon plan to value the company in terms of any M & A activity because that is the endgame we have all been waiting around for?! We know that the share price has been no where near the actual value of the asset - Cavendish (BoD Chair Nally used to head Cenkos which merged with and is now Cavendish. . .) has a very reasonable price point of 32p using real world acreage values. . . This valuation methodology MUST be stated with clarity at the AGM, in my very honest opinion! Further to this and the historical disconnect with the incredible value of this asset and the share price - how beholden to this abysmal share price history will Falcon be in relation to a price in any M & A, etc.?!

(2) South Africa - What exactly is the status?

It would be more than greatly appreciated if you could make sure this Q & A takes place. In the alternative, I am not sure if there is a platform for non-attendees to pose questions and I can take a look into that as well.

Thanks!

alright, ok, are all the whiners finished. . . of course, finished without in any way offering the better deal, terms, actions poq/bod could have should have taken to get the necessary funding to participate in the upcoming and hugely important 2 wells in the pilot?! . . . this board is truly one massive amateur sideshow - even the heralded newtofo wets his bed at the slightest hint of seemingly unfavorable news, sorry newtofo, and that should get a "sheesh" sent my way. . .. have appreciated over the years many of the posts, but it's now time for the genuine professional/credible commentary to take hold and the only place i see that is in the analysts'/experts' reports/notes, etc., even if they have some bias one way or another. tennyson's comment on the pilot participation noted there would still need be a raise to participate. anyone with half a brain knew there was doing to be this raise, and yes, it wasn't great bc our sp is ridiculously undervalued, always has been but for after the first amungee results and then that go taken down by the moratorium, etc. and it just never has rebounded. but that was the one stretch where the market actually was correctly, more or less, valuing the stock. . . what matters now is, assuming repeated results to the sshi, how will that affect our true valuation in regards to what fog can legitimately hold out as the price to begin negotiations and then let them begin and see where we end up! i would love to see cavendish's note, i can't get access bc based in the u.s. . . unlike the amateurs on this board - including myself - it's these professional who are going to determine valuation and negotiations parameters now and going forward! i am going to continue to watch this board for updates and factual info but all the whining, ****ging, and outright bs is hopefully filtered or certainly not paid attention to. . . as always, gla, kmg

Sorry, dilution may not have been factored in dilution, but point being, competent and probably conservative price point, I think it was 39 pence. . . All the best

Frankly, we need more credible coverage, but also agree, best move, sp malaise, again, is awful, but is what it is. Tennyson comment in comparison to most of what is stated here (and more than half of that is now filtered out. . .) is spot on. Also, in terms of valuation, look no further than Cavendish's Note, price, and that is today, not in futuro, with dilution or this move factored in. And our Chair, Nally, used to head that outfit and couldn't be more connected to the City and it's network, money, etc., guy who was key in the Cove buyout. . . But of course, we must wait, testing our resolve and patience! As always, all the best, KMJ

Buckeye, you got it right, it is about how the funding for the pilot program, dilution, etc., shakes out. Once there is certainty there, whatever it is, and then, most importantly, the pilot is executed successfully, stellar results, etc., then we will have an amazing value platform and the market will take notice. May be exactly like the Amungee H1, but this time when it skyrockets, it will hold, and we will get multiples from that during a buyout. But this penny stock sitting on the next Marcellus, 22.5% of it, is now, more than ever, an amazing natural gas pure play! Sit tight, be patient and let this unfold. The size of the prize is truly there.

Tsoprano1, hoping for many multiples from here once all the dust settles on what I mentioned and the pilot results start coming in. . . And not for nothing, I live a short ride from Satin Dolls, the location for The Bada Bing, and used to work around the corner from the actual Satriale's! Truly one of the great shows! . . . 2024 and beyond, now is the time for Falcon. . . KMG