Member Info for kmjliveson

Longknife, I've kind of given up trying to figure out the market regarding this stock. Let's all recall back in 2019 after the moratorium was lifted Cenkos very reasonably valued it at 41 pence, though if I recall there was more expectation for the Kyalla producing in the short term. . . The only time things made sense was when after the 6 tcf discovery for the Amungee NWH1 that was in the 1 range bc of the deformation and the stock shot up to the US 30 cent range and held there for a while until the moratorium then Covid brought it way down to these levels. If the results are under 3 like Newtofo says I think there's no doubt it gets a bit hammered, but POQ is seemingly very happy at getting 3, he must know something! I think we'll get that. Empire just announced that on the 2H after the soak, and hopefully the soak with the 3H gets those numbers up more to those needed commercial levels. The other thing is and I thought it was in one of the Empire presentations but it is somewhere else, and I think this is important especially with the team we have on board which has to be as good and likely better than Empire's team - there was a chart that showed US basins and how the more wells drilled led to dramatically higher production rates, and that's what's going to happen in the Beetaloo, these first few wells, may not be the best outcome, but they will all improve over time. That said, I still hope and expect 3 or well above for the Amungee 2H, it has to happen! If we hit that, there will have to be some move up in the share price, how much, I wish I knew. At this point, after all this time, I am basically sitting tight until end of this year into next, as that is when the rubber will really be hitting the road and the share prices of all players should be reflecting the actual activity and realistic forecasts as hopefully, hopefully, Empire and us are into the Pilot Productions. Based on everything Underwood at Empire is saying, their results and financing thus far has them full steam ahead toward that! And who knows we might already have some bidders before or by then! But, yes, first things first, we need those good results from the Amungee 2H, and so it shall be.

Underwood is reasonably if not super happy with the results of all the drilling, including the new 3H, and totally bullish toward next steps with a focus on pilot production THIS YEAR! He does emphasize the learning curve, and apparently this soaking method seems to work so far, we'll see how it does on the 3H but improved the 2H quite a bit so far. Unfortunately, the stock showed a fair uptick in volume but no lift, at all! Probably gonna take the commitment to the pilot production activity and results there later this year and into next. We gotta blow the roof off the Amungee NW2H, 5 + full stop!

Rich, don't get me wrong, I've been all in on Falcon, that's my big bet on the Beetaloo, though gotta have all the confidence in the world on TBN as well, so I support you thoughts, etc. Just seeing the news on EEG and will take a closer look, haven't even seen how the stock is responding, will check into that shortly and may affect my decision. I wasn't planning on going too big anyway, smallish position, still think it's a good bet, medium and longer term, they have acreage and drill results in their Western permit that show the same Velkerri characteristics. Bottom line, I want success for all with my major focus on our beloved and dogged for too too long Falcon Oil & Gas. Time for results and success!

Hi Rich. Picking up some TBN makes sense, Falcon will rise or fall based on how they perform, to state the obvious. What I find interesting about EEG is that they are seeing the same prolific Velkerri B that we are focusing on and this just speaks to how huge this shale is and gives further support that it exists in ALL of our acreage, and TBN's, etc. Gonna pick some EEG up this week, methinks. Sitting on a very healthy Falcon position, been accumulating the past 6 months, last purchase at 12 cents. Anyway, bottom line, at this point it is nothing else matters than successful flow rates, from all players, full stop! Though what I liked about EEG is how they are definitely looking long term, assuming the 3H results are not a total bust, which they won't be. Their last Presentation has a great slide that shows how production rates consistently improved in the US shale plays over time as all perfected the drilling/fracking, and there's no reason to think it won't be similar in the Beetaloo, That said, do wanna see 5 + from the NW Amungee 2H! All the best!

Fair enough Newtofo, to have some jitters, this has been going on for just way toooooo long! I was reading the recent Empire Energy Analyst reports over the weekend, and they are very optimistic about Empire's prospects over there on the Eastern Edge, though it seems they have the same Velkerri B shale we have, it's just so huge and consistent. Their 3H results will come on before ours, that's will be a great insight and to see how they respond but seems they are full guns a blazing toward their Pilot Production. I actually am seriously considering making a purchase of EEG as well. Look at what we have, such a massive swath of the Velkerri/Amungee Member and then there are still the liquids, which TBN will crack. If the normalization of the 1H can be trusted, and the experts say it can, then man, we gotta come in at the needed rates. Again, the waiting is the hardest part, but it is now full on execution and results time, and they must be great!

Het Wet. Yes, I was confused on the H & P stuff, thanks for pointing that out, you got it right. Waiting is the hardest part, has been for too long, time for great results, etc.!

Google/Youtube search EEG Alex Underwood's videos, he is very bullish about the learning curve being sorted and expecting better results for the 3H and basically speaks as if moving to their own Pilot Program will def happen! We gotta hope that our normalization to the 5+ range (again, assuming this is a 100% legit analysis) plus our new expertise, truly core location, all give us the edge to get much better results than EEG and thus make our move to a Pilot Program all the more real, and we'll have another appraisal shot with the next well. I think the delays on announcing that are bc perhaps they want to use an H & P rig, which I think is possible given H & P's move into the region though not sure, otherwise I guess will use Condor again. All the best!!!

As I said in my last post, it is now all happening! On the expected good if not great results, do we immediately get back to that ~ US 30 cents range and that then becomes the support level as news, etc. continues toward next well, pilot program and good news in all other respects. Amazing that we had to wait these 7 fn years to get back to this point. Got to get to that 3 and likely above rate! We should have confidence in the new team and projections but all big TBDs until the data is in! Can't wait for the updates, POQ was all smiles and positivity when discussing all this, so we shall see my friends! All the very best!

Meant to say "we have another round with the Amungee" . . . Writing too fast sometimes. . . All the best

That's been the Falcon story, hurry up and WAIT! . . . But it's all happening now, just most likely will still be slower than us long term holders and waiters would want. . . To the point of Tambo vs. Origin, though I know you are not too serious Newtofo. . . I think they are, they must be, very proactive, strategic and timely in all that they are doing as they truly are betting everything on this, totally diff than our former big brother Origin, to wit, their exit to Tambo/Sheffield, etc. Some have been talking price action recently, well, on good news from the upcoming well, we are totally back to 2016, but this time, with the full lenght of the well and all fracks fully flowing, etc. and hopefully we get the numbers projected, etc. I've harped on what happened back then with the limited flow rates due to the deformation and then the 6.6 tcf declaration, it shot up and stayed in the US 30 cent range, until the moratorium, etc. Yes, cannot, absolutely cannot believe it's been 7 years, but, we are round with Amungee, and then moving on to all the other projected work. Do we pop up and above 30 and stay there? What's the number and does it hold? What will be our TRUE valuation from an M & A perspective and then what is the sp doing? All big TBDs. But we are there now, it is happening, and Mr. Riddle, Sheffield and dare I say, O'Quigley, must make this happen. And we got Empire off on what should be the sidelines with their story looking good! Huge good luck to all as always and bring on these next wells, pilot program, etc.!!!

Great to see Layman spending his own money, as you note! Always a good sign when insiders are buying! All about execution and results and he knows something about those in the shale gas space. Sitting very tight with my position, having made a number of recent purchases in the USD 7 cents range. Man, said this before, reminds me so much of that 2016 approaching 2017 timeframe when we hit those crazy lows and on the first Amungee results shot up fast and stayed there. That must happen again and then some! Gonna be interesting, to put it mildly. We all very much deserve it and i could think of no better time of the year. All the best!

Incredible difference btw Empire/Underwood, TBN/Riddle's promotion vs. what we got from Origin. That said, end of day, beating dead horse by saying nothing else matters at this point than execution and results, which thus far Empire and Tamboran are showing, and of course we have our normalized rate from the 2016 frack at Amungee that we hope to get straight out from the Amungee well being drilled now! Accordingly, we are in such a much better operational and promotional position with TBN at the helm, just need to get the results we need and the market is waiting to see!!! On good/great results, we must get back into the minimum US 20 cents then upwards. Said before we say again, this is 2016/2017 all over again, but there are pretty much only tailwinds at this stage and we are in such a better position based on the operational/promotional change with TBN, the bit of extra carry and optionality. We were at lows before the first Amungee frac that when the 6.6 tcf contingent resource was announced shot up to the US 30 cent range and stayed there until the moratorium shot it down followed by fn Covid. Why in the bloody blank wouldn't we get back there and then some should things go well now going forward, which is what must take place?! . . . Come on TBN, let's make this happen! All the best!

Fair enough Wet. . . I guess my thinking is it should be kind of a given that Sheffield will do everything in his power to advance his strategic/financial interests in the Beetaloo and that does not mean being a nice guy in all respects toward Falcon! How exactly that impacts Falcon's share price going forward under this new Operator and ownership regime, well, we shall see. I just think TBN is betting the entire house and more on making the Beetaloo a huge success, and at this point almost everything else other than flow rates is a secondary issue and no doubt that is and will be driving everything they do because as you noted, they also have to deal with Sheffield! Bring on these next two wells and then the pilot program with H & P at the helm, then let's see where we are. Hope you're all having a great weekend!

Always interested to see what you have to say Wet, but this, not sure what to make of it. My first thought is so what, Sheffield is gonna play very hardball as it's obvious he wants the lion's share of the Beetaloo and when things confidently show commerciality he's gonna buy out both TBN and FOG and probably Empire!!! Shorting, other nefarious means, hmmmm?! Let's see. Big things happening, let's get these next 2 wells very right. Other thing is, how neutral can Tom Layman be in all this. He's got to act in Falcon's best interest and should know how Sheffield operates, his insight and place on the Board should be an asset in relation to understanding and dealing with Sheffield! In any event, all about the drilling and results at this point, full stop! Let's get the results we need further showing commercial potential. If that happens, no doubt Sheffield will be positioning to scoop it all up and of course he's gonna do all he can to get it at the best price! And then it's all about, as it always has been, what is the valuation and will there be other bidders! Damned issue we all have suffered with this is the share price just always being so damned depressed, except for the time back in 2016 when it shot up to the US 30 cent range. This has finally got to turn in Falcon's direction but my singular focus now is the drilling happening now and our need to get the right flow rates, again, full stop!

Seems to me so long as the drilling programme for Falcon's remaining and new carry is well defined, and the well we know will be fracked this year with flow rates fully known next year are solid and still point toward moving out of the learning curve and into the efficient and effective drilling technique in the next 2 - 3 development/appraisal wells that are expected under the new JV, JOA - correct?! - TBN and FOG stocks should still be in play and poised to move up on the next 2 - 3 going forward with H & P at the helm, correct?! Hopefully, seriously, the learnings from the fault etc from the first frack and the SEISMIC (btw, has this been done??!! I don't recall the press release or discussion, etc. . . .) plus TBNs frack fluid analysis/best practices - hopefully all this leads to the execution that gets us proper flow rates that Sheffield/Layman believe should be happening, similar to how the US field plays proceeded. if there's fundamental problems with the next frack and/or we're having to normalize, then there will be a hit, how much lower from ffnn 7 cents, say again, 7 ffnn cents, though, what down to 3.5, 2.5??!! And then, if this well is still a learnings outcome and platform for further refinement, then the next wells need to be and with those further learnings, will be better, and better, and better. and the stock price should finally, finally, follow!

This all then again goes to exactly why Tambo MUST get this first one upcoming so right! No more BS from Riddle, just the data that clearly points to the production/commercialisation/build out infrastructure pathway that Sheffield/Layman believe will happen in the Beetaloo play! So, let's see, so much happening, next year should be the most pivotal year up to this point, again like it should have been in 2016/2017 but there you have it, Falcon timeline story. Final word here, i hope you are right that Falcon can get them to stick to the original ORG plan, not sure how strong their leverage is on that, if it is air tight legally, then they should but if there's legal wiggle room, problematic. . . Needless to say, GLTA!!!

Seems very much like 2015 going into 2016, and that tells one of the huge stories for Falcon, which is timeline and the horrible delay/waiting - take away the moratorium and Covid basically this is where we were then, how crazy is that 7 years later! However, SO much has happened with the biggest news I think being Sheffield's major move into the Beetaloo. I think any way you look at it we are in a much stronger position now. Yet it is still nuts to think we had a basically 7 year wait before we could get to this next stage of following up on the first Amungee frack and declaration of the 6.6 tcf contingent resource, which shot the stock up into the US 30 cent range for a good amount of time. That is the minimum of where this danged stock should be and hopefully we will be back there first half next year, as a new support level with moves upward and tradeworthy volume! I have been a long term hold (yea, I am one of you, you know who you are. . .) basically, but would really like to trade tihs as results come in, there's the volume, etc. And per my last posts - it is ALL about execution on the upcoming drilling, full stop! Sheffield's major move, gives me confidence, to speak the obvious. Despite that we didn't go for Preemption, we still have the City legend as Chair of our Board, along with Sheffield's key engineer. Importantly, Tambo's company making move in its new JV structure and ambitious plans place a lot of weight on these next Amungee wells, as well, so they want to get it just right, or convincingly right enough!!! No more reliance on "normalizations". . . All lining up for the near term, Tambo operator, Sheffield strategic partner/investor, Falcon non-operator and first mover, still very much in the game per its fundamental business plan as permit holder and find partners to prove up. . . Talk is cheap and ultimately meaningless, all of us know that. . . The results must speak for themselves, and, the great hope and expectation is, so they shall!

And, let's be real, should Falcon not be able to successfully exercise its ROFR, AND the next 2 wells ARE SUCCESSFUL, spiritual guy that I am will throw in a, God willing and granting us long suffering shhs. . . Isn't it highly likely they make an offer for Falcon's 22.5%?! Then the question becomes what will the price be? Can Falcon get FMV based, notwithstanding perhaps a still undervalued sp, which hopefully won't be the case. . . And is it not likely that there may be other suitors stepping up? Let's remember Nally was at the helm of Craven (former Chairman)/Cove deal! We're all so damned jaded by the slow pace and share absurd price depression. But it's all happening now, as I have said. It's drill and success time, or we are settling for pennies on the dollar, but friends, that is not going to happen. They are going to nail these two horizontals, head toward the pilot programme, etc.! It's always been execution at this stage, with legitimate valuation finally setting the share price and bargaining platform!

Newtofo, thanks for the reply and engagement, as always, it's been and continues to be highly valued. First, I am 1000% (10 bagger) hoping Falcon/POQ/Nally can pull this off!!! But if not, after these next two wells, assuming successful, Falcon was going to have to finance it's share the pilot programme, correct? So, what's changed with that with a much more agile Operator with H&P doing the drilling going to change things dramatically negative for Falcon. Yes, let's grant that TBN/Riddle/Sheffield will be as sharkish as they can be toward Falcon's interest. . . IF THOSE WELLS ARE SUCCESSFULL, and that is a must happen, will we not be in a much stronger position, to find a finance source/strategic partner to help us further prove up, as TBN/Sheffield/H&P also want badly to get things done efficiently, effectively, timely to definitively prove commerciality!! AND, Sheffield has big stake in Falcon and his number one guy on the Board. Sure, we need to assume hard core, O & G industry deal tactics, but I still think, if these wells are successful, we should be able to find a strategic partner that can bolster us against the worst case kind of machinations you're envisioning, and I do strongly believe in POQ's skill as a finance expert in this field working hand in hand with the City Legend, Joe Nally!!!

Thanks for the comments, Wet, and agree, if POQ, Nally, etc. can pull this off where it legitimately can work for Falcon and us long holding, dare I say suffering, shareholders, I am 100% for it, and hopeful for it to happen for all the right reasons. Here's where he earns what he's being paid, full stop! It is all happening now, and no surprises we're seeing full on deal making knife's edge activities, it speaks loudly to the value of the Beetaloo! End of day, I just want the dang share price to finally get a lift back into the $.30 range it was in after the 6.6 tcf contingent resource announcement, that becomes the new, genuine support level as it continues to rise from there with drilling successes!!! Remember how it went from a crazy low up into that 30 cent range in a matter of days and held for some time, that's where we need to get! . . . All the best!!!

Good Morning All. Have been following this board for years and made some posts in the past. At the end of the day, if the dust and emotions settle on all this and this TBN/Sheffied JV takes over from Origin, not sure exactly how Falcon is worse off. They have a much better Operator going forward for the upcoming 2 wells and at the end of the day Falcon's future very much rests on the success of these two wells, and TBN/Sheffield want those to succeed with them as well so will put all they have into it, in coordination with Falcon AND Tom Layman, Sheffield's key guy. Regardless of the merits, price, etc. of this deal, bottom line is these 2 upcoming wells need to be successful for Falcon's share price to rise and to position itself for the pilot production programme and financing related to do that, so a major focus still needs to be on the success of these super critical wells.

In terms of exercising the preemptive rights - well, POQ bottom line is a finance guy and deal maker for the massive acreage in the prime Beetaloo, that is his background and between him and Nally, they may be able to pull this off, big TBD! Per Wetwater, POQ is ****ed off and giving it his all to try and make that happen, we shall see.

But if not, again, how worse off are we. Origin obviously wanted out in the worst way and decided to sell on the cheap, according to Cenkos at 14x a discount to Sheffield's private placement in Falcon! Kind of of insane but speaks volumes to how badly the pressure was from the Board, other factors, etc. to get out of this part of their business/portfolio, and at whatever price and now!!!

So, let's see what transpires in the next 20 + days and see if POQ, Nally, etc. can successfully challenge this, but again, whatever the outcome, we need to have 2 VERY SUCCESSFUL Amungee wells with commercial flow rates that point directly to that pilot production plan!!!

ALL THE BEST!!!