Member Info for kmjliveson

This, to me, was one of the major points made. If anyone knows about world class shale petroleum systems, it's this new and incredible Board Member! This is a material representation, made more than once! He believes this will be a world class play! Microphone dropped! I am back to my original, substantial position. Good luck to all and have a great weekend!

Don't be ridiculous. The number of players actually now operating in the Beetaloo, the interest level, the governments huge and unequivocal commitment to it. Questions at this point are all about execution and commercial flow rates. We've got three great plays, and we alone (I believe) have the Kyalla wet and hybrid plays, which Origin will do everything it can to get to commercial rates, while better proving up the Velkerri dry and testing the flank wet. It is all positive but requires execution and results, full stop. Said before and will say again, stock price has been exactly like before frack results of the Amungee just before Moratorium when those results definitively announced and filed the stock shot up to the USD 30 cent range. By end of this dry season we're going to know a lot more on all fronts. Obviously hoping for the best!

This will be the last time I post this. Look at the share price action before the Amungee discovery announcement back in 2016/2017! It hit an all time low of something like 4 cents and then when all the good news was official on the 6.6 tcf, it bolted into the 30 cent range and held there for some time during the moratorium, until it fell and has been at its pathetic place since then. Hopefully that is the price stupidity happening now and once we get serious execution activity and hopefully positive results for the multiple well, 3 fairway campaign planned, followed by good/great results, we will see similar and even much better share price movement. If that doesn't happen, then the fix is obviously in, all bets are off and we just have to hope that the private deals being done get us a very fair valuation notwithstanding the artificially and ridiculously low share price!

Posted this line of thought a few weeks ago - look at the the share price action around, during and after all the Amungee, Velkerri fracking and result submissions via press releases and to the competent Aus authorities. Hit an all time low during that time. Once the official submission of the discovery was filed it skyrocketed into the US $.30 range for awhile until the moratorium fatigue set it, then it has drifted, then Covid and here we are, in a very similar place with some prelim, good not great but positive pointing signs for the Kyalla wet, waiting for the EPT results to be reported. And we still have the Velkerri wet option (Empire helping us on that front. . .) and what we know is the massive Velkerri dry from the Amungee already well proved up (just need to see more from us or others across the Basin, which we most certainly will. . .). Everything rides 100% on the remaining appraisal wells. Will good results see a similar major move, will that be sustainable because we now can fully execute on drilling plans and permits, no moratorium, Covid is being managed well, have full on political backing???!!! The fix is surely in if there are good to very good to great results and we see no price moves like when the Amungee results were made completely official. . . Again, Falcon Oil & Gas, the waiting is the hardest part! Hope it is like the best fine wine or scotch when all comes due! I remain cautiously but certainly optimistic.

And not for nothing, the only real good if not great news we've had in the past several years was the Amungee NW-1H frac results, Dec of Discovery. Here is a chronology of the PRs and look at the price action during that time.
29 Sept ‘16 - Prelim findings from Amungee NW-1H - Promising results
12 Oct ‘16 - Notification of Discovery
22 Dec ‘16 - Completion of Extended Production Test
15 Feb ‘17 - Evaluation of Discovery submitted
Single cent range, actually hit an all time low during that time, right up to the Dec of Discovery until it took off into the 30 US cent range, up and down there for a while until the moratorium destroyed it, then Covid and here we are in pretty much the exact same place as we were and this is before any actual announcement of prelim results. Just keeping things in a certain perspective and obviously wishing, wanting and expecting great results!

ROCK, calm down son, and if you can't muster the faith in Falcon, I believe you have mentioned you're a pastor (if I am wrong, forgive me. . .), place your faith elsewhere, in that higher power, because ultimately that is what matters first and foremost. . . That said, as I have mentioned over and over and over - what has given me faith and hope in Falcon from day one is the Mid-Velkerri dry gas play - all valuations begin there. The stock dive has been due mostly to the moratorium, Covid 19 and prob mostly just Falcon being a penny stock, far off most institutions radar or ability to actually invest, at this stage. Hopefully we are now on track for the remaining 3 well appraisal/production testing campaign to reasonably hold to schedule. If so, we are probably looking to this time a year from now to have more concrete and higher level valuations. But yes, for me and many others, including yourself I am sure, the constant delays and depressed stock price has been brutal. And, it is more than likely the first offer comes from Origin - again, question is what will it be and how will it be implemented. . . And, and, and, maybe the now very anticipated Kyalla results will be strong, though this delay is disconcerting. It's been a crazy waiting game/long term hold with Falcon and nothing has changed. Hopefully, per the Peter Lynch view, the huge take off may happen at any moment bc I do believe the underlying fundamentals are there for this compelling O & G asset play, but the waiting and undervalue has been sickening. All the best

Yea, ROCK. . . hear ya. . . My shares are basically in a vault now until stage 3 is complete. Delays and waiting but hopefully we do get some decent and well worth it pay off down the long and winding road. . . For what it's worth, I do think those other picks you noted will be good to great plays as well in time but that's just it, it's all about timing (very Peter Lynch. . .) . . . Be blessed to you too.

This is more to tda4falcon's earlier concern about Falcon being the scam of the century and not the stock of the century as Herriage proclaimed it with his thesis going back about 7-8 years. Guy does know what he's talking about but he whiffed massively so far with this. I bought it mainly because of his huge confidence though I did do a lot of my own due diligence, but got in as large as I did because of his confidence particularly in the short term once the Beetaloo JV post Hess was announced. . . Just didn't happen and the rest is history. . . But, that all being said, now is finally the time when it all is very concrete and real bc we are staring at only execution based results and then and only then will we see what that markets do. . . Macro factors will always be a concern. . . I for one am continuing to rely on James McCormack at Cenkos' excellent research and presently, even with the 7.5% reduction, 40 p price target. . . That target has built into it a considerable if not asymmetric upside if one or both of the wet plays hit. . . Again, mantra is execution and results as Stage 2 hopefully moves forward in H2 and then we look to 3!!!!! My genuine continues to be patience with laser focus on results and sp life; hope is at the end of the day we are in or around if not hopefully above $1 and anything after that is just a premium for our patience for the opp cost. . . . Only time and lady fortune will tell. . . Stay well, KMJ

I fall back on the solid analysis again by McCormack at Cenkos (who by the way has a geology background so he knows the rocks and drilling issues inside and out) where he valued Falcon's share of the Velkerri B 6.6 tcf at 23 p in May of '19. He recognized and emphasized that was only for 12% of the Velkerri B dry gas acreage. Ok, now that 23 p is reduced by 25% so it's approx, converting to USD, $.20. So, despite the destruction going on in the market TODAY for all the obvious reasons, we know that assuming the Kyalla and Velkerri wet are completely failures - then they go back in and prove up 2 more Velkerri B wells. And we know the results of Santos' vertical frack due east of our permits with Empire ready to do more to prove it up as well. Is it not logical then to multiply that 20 cents by at least 3 if not more knowing that if we have great shows in those other wells, that it is reasonable to add some premium bc we know that whatever major will see it through to production level will be able to do it all over that massive acreage. That's why I think giving it something closer to $1 as a baseline is reasonable with anything above that for me, at this stage, being gravy. At least that is how I am budgeting it while it is locked away in the vault now for another 1 to 2 years bc of all these maddening delays. And this is only falling back solely on the Velkerri B dry gas. . . Assuming we get a Kyalla wet commercial standard find - then we know they're gonna focus like gangbusters on those Kyalla sweetspots for Stage 3, and same regarding the Velkerri wet. What will that be worth, is it more than the Velkerri B dry? It should again follow that a wet gas commercial level find in the Kyalla and/or the Velkerri, should provide a higher base valuation for that amt of Falcon tcf and then some reasonable multiple of that, which should also takes us up around the $1 mark if not higher to much higher. And again, we're looking easily at those values and scenarios coming in at whatever is happening on micro and macro levels at least 1 year from now if not likely more. The key here is for Falcon to be able to show the stacked play and then all the appraisals/valuations are based on that. In 2021/22, will that come in under $1 or over. We shall see. What matters now is the safe re-starting of the fracking program come H2 - July would be great - and a successful Kyalla frack with a move over in H1 '21 to the Velkerri wet as planned. At that stage, hopefully the market wakes up like it did after the Amungee frack results, we get a genuine lift in the sp, new support levels as it goes higher, knowing now we have a genuine stacked play scenario. If no stacked play, again, we're looking at the Velkerri B massive dry gas find and reasonable valuations attached thereto. It's all about more patience and most importantly, execution with strong results, full, full stop! Stay safe and well.

Well put Poods. . . Stay well

We're all amateurs here, let's not kid ourselves - that said, a lot of us care deeply about this investment and still provide excellent views. In this Internet, hide behind your handle and do nothing but **** off era, too many do more that than add value. Is what it is. We got into this however we did. Except for the handful who appear to have traded it on and off over the years, most of us have been long holders without a penny to show for it. Poods 10 + years, me 7 + , and on it goes. That said, this present deal probably did not actually place a value as we were looking at it earlier and it may be closer to how Nanodarcy does. . . . Maybe. . . Whatever, I'll put Cenkos' McCormack's credentials and analysis against anyone who has posted on this board, so back to my earlier post - he gives it a "fantastic" deal and affirms the Buy, and O & G journalists are endorsing that view. Maybe it's not exactly fantastic but it must deserve a good or very good, and at present, with all that is going on in the world and certainly the O & G space, this has got to be a net positive and still bode well for much upside, as POQ puts it, always understated. So maybe Origin ends up getting an insider, sweetheart deal, MAYBE, but it still has to stand up to market based appraisal standards. POQ came over as a finance guy which fundamentally is what he has had to do and he's done pretty darn well with the others and this deal, at this time, further supporting that, though he may be getting paid to much, fair point. . . Enough BS and speculation - we need to get back to work, STAY HEALTHY, get to H2 this year, see what happens in the Kyalla, and with some good execution and luck, we have another commercial level discovery. Then in 2021 we're gonna know more fully what the deal is in the massive Velkerri. Then, where's the share price, what's the true value of the Beetaloo and Falcon. That's it folks. Unfortunately the mantra has not changed, it's all about a bit more waiting and anticipating, and with it, execution and results! . . . Stay healthy and well. . . KMJ

Yes, and so it's not US .6 it's .4, still higher than Cenkos value in May '19 and now full commitment from Origin and resources to prove up the permits - knowing the Velkerri B is that monster already. Worse case scenario in 2021 we see at least 2 more stellar well in that fairway that sends that .4 into the $1 - 2 range. Right?! Gotta get thur COVID 19, open up the Beetaloo in H2 and get back to biz. This cuts positive all things - and I mean all things - considered.

Correction, certainly things have changed as we have now a reduced interest of 22.5 among other changes - nothing changed in relation to the waiting game factor, etc, for results, true valuation and potential payoff. . .

What I thought. . . Well done. . . Nothing's really changed here, still a waiting game first for the hopefully all clear in H2 2020, then continued focus with laser precision on execution in all the plays, starting with the Kyalla frack. . . So now, it's all about H2 2020 and 2021!. . . In the meantime, may this disease/pandemic and all issues related to it ease and get better and for there to be a robust rebound. . . KMJ

Thanks for that dprussky. . . Can I ask you to break that out in a bit more detail as to how you reached that number?

If James McCormack at Cenkos is calling this deal "fantastic" than it is at least good if not very good , alongside a reiterated Buy recommendation. His May 2019 Research Note is very thorough and valued Falcon's Velkerri dry first find at US 30 cents, so that takes a bit of a hit now bc of the reduced percentage - but remember, that 30c was for only, as he sees it, 12% of the acreage - it is likely that the vast majority of that remaining 88% has the stuff similar to what the Amungee frack showed, Santos announced a discovery on a Vertical frack due east! . . . This is a very uncertain time in the O & G industry, and this shows Origin's commitment to the Beetaloo, this gets us well thru this COVID 19 scare and very well positions us to benefit on the upside, yes at a slightly reduced percentage, but still clearly a Buy from McCormack, and the guy has great credentials. This sucks right now and has been tough, but we, the world, Aus and the NT need to get past this pandemic scare, get to second half of this year, frack the Kyalla, move into 2021, drill and frack the Velkerri Wet - assess, evaluate and position for stage 3 in 2021, which in the end may be 2 more killer wells for the Velkerri massive dry play - and then we are really talking about value here. Poods, I'm 7 years into this, by this time next year it will be 8, and I'll tap into a bit of Chinese superstition with lucky number 8. This must and will turnaround and bounce back hard, hurts and sucks now, but we have to look now with laser focus to the second of of this and into next year. . . All the best, stay well, KMJ

I knew I should have kept my mouth shut about the up open. . . Crazy, crazy times. . . Still, forward looking and thinking to better days and times!

For what it's worth, I've been buying. FOLGF opened up today and is bidding higher, not like that means anything right now other than it just feels a little better needless to say. . . We all know that we are sitting on a massive amount of Nat Gas in the Velkerri B, that's a fact! Cenkos has very reasonably valued the 1.94 tcf at 23p/30c, and that's only 12% of the acreage - it is very likely all of their acreage has the stuff! So what's the multiple from that 23p, when all is said and done - at a low end, 3x, 4x, 5x. . . ?! And we know what's happening with Santos and Empire is getting in there soon or so it was planned. But this, if I am being honest, is very unnerving, scary as all hell. But governments are stepping up and into the breach. Everything has just been so kept down with this amazing but penny stock in "normal" times, and now this. When nothing happened with this stock after the "transformational" farmout deal, I realized this was gonna be a long haul hold - and boy has it ever been. Again, to what matters most right now, hopefully the Kyalla is moving forward as planned (maybe newtofo's jungle jabber is right. . .) and we have another big find there! So, that's where we have been and will be until those last 2 wells are drilled. For now, hunker down big time, take care of yourselves and loved ones, stay safe and keep your eyes on the prize! All the very best, KMJ

And not for nothing but at least the shares are going down on legitimate news, not like that makes any of us feel any better. I bought some more at 12 cents. The other thing to consider, as I have stressed before, is the price action before the Amungee/Velkerri success and declaration. It went down to some stupid crazy number like 4 something cents while that was all in play only to bounce back big time, hold in the 30s, and this while the moratorium was announced and in place for who knew how long. So hopefully it is still full steam ahead with the Kyalla frack and flow tests, onto the Velkerri Wet, and if all goes very well, we have a stacked play in one or both along with what we know we have in the Velkerri dry! . . . This bit of global oil politics alongside the Covid-19 scare/panic shall pass, and hopefully in the near future the share price is well north of these stupidly depressed prices. As always, all the best, especially in these trying times. . . KMJ

Well put WetWater. And, given that we already have the 1.94 tcf (Falcon's share) contingent resource of the Velkerri dry, rep'ing only 12% of the known acreage, with Santos showing great shows on a vertical frack - I don't think we have to hedge with any sort of "if this project is a failure" - it's already a success w the 6.6 tcf, a tiny fraction of the potential - the question is when will the share price reflect that value and what is the real, I mean real, upside from here, starting with the Velkerri dry and going from there, whatever the scenarios. . . Now, what matters is the task at hand, execution of the frack and great results in the Kyalla! All the best, KMJ