Member Info for KeithOz

The next GE in Ireland has to be held before March 22nd 2025. The current coalition of FG/FF/Greens has a 1 seat majority, making life very difficult. In the local elections, where vote counting is just finishing, it is apparent that both SF & Greens have lost out big time. It must be tempting to call an immediate General Election, following the UK's and France's announcements. If the local council results are representative of national feeling, it would be possible that FF & FG together would have a majority without needing the Greens. Even if they were below a majority, they would choose a partner with more seats than the Greens are likely to get.

The result would be a much more businesslike approach, with a strong push to retain, and preferably increase, the number of energy-hungry datacentres. With AI centres likely to require even more power, a significant change in the Irish energy policy would be required. They are already thinking about a non-commercial FRSU, but there are significant barriers for implementation by a government with no experience of such a project. Mag Mell could resurface as the lead choice.

I have put an annotated Google Earth view of the Guercif region on my X account. It shows existing & planned wells, proposed Guercif-Nador motorway, and Maghreb - Europe pipeline. This is about as close as I could get on a large-scale map with a shaky mouse.

https://x.com/KQuick20704342/status/1798892016518222074/photo/1

@CCC - I'm sure I speak for all decent folk on this board that we are truly sorry to hear of your family's situation, and hope for the best for them. Without having been in a similar situation it is impossible for us to understand what you must be going through. This is a sad reminder that people are often very unpleasant to others, without any awareness of that person's situation - such a response could easily be the straw that broke the camel's back. It is also an important reminder to all of us that there are far more important things in life than trying to make a bit of money - especially if this is at other peoples' expense.

I've started a new thread to avoid confusion. There are many problems operating in Trinidad, the worst of which I am not allowed to mention for legal reasons 😕. Another problem is well nomenclature - we have just discovered there are two with the same name. Trinity's recently-drilled Jacobin-1 is on their Palo Seco licence, and is still being appraised. Our Jacobin-1 is on the southern border of Cory-Moruga. This RNS is the first time I have heard that it was an early target for a workover, previously we have been told that Snowcap-1 was the priority.

I should preface this by pointing out that I don't know a lot about the geology of southern Trinidad. Snowcap was positioned to target 8 stacked plays, the Cipero-Herrera 1, 2 & 3 and the Herrera-Karamat 4,5,6,7 & 8. Jacobin is to the south of Snowcap, and only targeted six - the CH 1 & 2 do not extend that far south. So why prioritise this? We are pretty much guaranteed to hit the same six reservoirs which produced in Snowcap, apparently these have never been flow tested at Jacobin-1. These are turbidites, which like those in the MOU-Fan, should have excellent poroperm, The turbidites in southern Trinidad are thicker towards the south, so these reservoir sands will be thicker in Jacobin-1 than in Snowcap - this is evident from the isopach maps on p.16 of the Cory Moruga ITR.

The Cory-Moruga wells were drilled quite some time ago, and imo were not properly evaluated - the two original partners were Parex Resources, who decided they had much bigger fish to fry in Columbia, and Primera, who were bought by Touchstone, which is how they acquired their stake. I am hoping that if re-entry is successful, PRD will use Nutech analysis to fine-tune potential reservoir position, and SandJet to maximise perforation depth and hence oil flow. Both Snowcap and Jacobin are likely to produce light sweet crude, which is easier & cheaper to process than most T & T oil, so commands a higher price.

Cory-Moruga has been assigned a Pmean of 21.8 mmBbl PIIP, with 5.2 mmBbl Prospective Resources (recoverable). p.26 of the ITR states "Readers should take into account that the PRD expected work programme could materially derisk the

Estimated Prospective Resources with final outcomes being anywhere within the unrisked Prospective

Resource distributions". This latter figure is 81 mmBbl ! I have a suspicion that by the end of this year, the current risked number will be shown to be a very conservative estimate.

T & T does have its advantages as well - key is that it has an extensive active oil industry. This means, unlike Morocco, equipment and operatives are readily available in-country. Paul states that contracts will be awarded shortly, we can safely assume that activities will be able to commence immediately after that.

Mr Caston, now 85 yrs old, is a geophysicist who worked with Paul at Providence - not Island as I said earlier. I'm sure he would be happy to sell out before he reaches 86.

The procedure is to use simultaneous contracts, completely standard, I have used this several times when acquiring 100% of an entity held by multiple parties. 1st Contract - Vermilion agrees to buy 100% of Corrib South from PRD on specific terms. 2nd Contract 2 - PRD agrees to buy all of Theseus holding on same terms as 1st contract. Both contracts signed at the same time, maybe have interdependency clauses. No questions over conflicts of interest since PG & his Theseus co-owner get exactly the same terms as PRD. Happy now?

@Liveinhope - there is no guarantee that this amount of gas is in place, or that it can be economically extracted, so the acquirer is taking on a substantial amount of financial risk. There are also substantial exploration and development costs to be paid by the acquirer. Some months ago, I did a detailed NPV analysis of this using modest assumptions, and came up with an unrisked NPV of around £1 per share. Looking at comparable projects, I applied a 75% discount, giving 25p a share real-world value. It seems reasonable to apply a slightly higher discount today, given the unknowns of windfall taxes.

Now. I need to give the girls and the cat their evening meal, all are complaining that I am just sitting at the computer doing nothing as usual.

Their half - jeez, I sound as ignorant as you.

Poor Nigel, still doesn't get it.

* " the only real option to realise multiples lies with the MOU-5 and the Maghreb Europe Pipeline". MOU-3 alone is stated to potentially be able to meet the Afriquia Gaz offtake of 50 mmcfgd. That would provide profit of over $200M per year - at a modest P:E of 5, that implies a market cap of 'only' $1 Bn.

*"Now I genuinely don't get this re Corrib South". Clearly you don't. There is a purchaser lined up waiting to buy (Vermilion). Currently PRD own 50%, Theseus own 50%. Theseus is jointly owned by Paul and a former colleague from Island - they will sell there half to Vermilion on the same terms. Not difficult to understand, surely?

* The new rig is for appraisal of the Jurassic & other prospects - ie it will be used after the already-contracted SV-101 has drilled MOU-5.

* "the Company will re-assess its funding needs for the next 12 months". Of course they will, every company does. After flow test / volumetric results and established cash flow from T & T, a placing would be at a much higher share price - assuming it is actually necessary at all.

* re. your snide remarks about Australia being a 3rd-world country, Australian 2023 GDP per capita was $US 69.7K. The UK? - $US 49.8K. Remind me where you live?

Unbelievable - an RNS that answers all the criticisms that have been repeated ad nauseam by our little troup, and the exact same group come up with another string of invented problems. You are either not very good at reading, or else there is clearly a concerted intent to destabilise this company. Of course there will be a simultaneous denials of conspiracy - btw, I do believe they landed on the moon, I don't believe in lizard people, I know the Covid vaccine saved far more people than it ever harmed, and I wouldn't vote for Donald Trump. But I do believe in organised trolls & boiler rooms.

Hey Lonny, how about paying me in shares for doing what has become a full-time job, or poking new appointees Comarco to give me some help here?

@Art & Legalwolf. They do have a rig - the SV-101 is already contracted, and as I said a few minute ago, could be available as early as 10 days time - subject to the start of the 1st Extension Perion, I admit I don't know when that is. But MOU-5 drilling very clearly is fully funded.

I'm a little surprised no one has mentioned that a sale of the Irish assets to a willing & ready purchaser could be finalised in the next 6 months. I would expect that to be worth perhaps an additional 20p a share.

I'm also a little surprised that no one has picked up on the 500 mmcfgd bit - you do realise that at $10 per mcf, that's $1.8 Bn a year. Suppose that this is $8 per mcf profit, and the company, by then an oil producer, has a lowly P:E rating of 5, that gives a market cap of $7.3 Bn. That's not a forecast, just sayin'.

@ART123. What a surprise to see you stick your head above the parapet. Clearly you have no idea what is involved in flow testing. Before you dangle a $1M+ set of gear down a dark 1.5km deep hole, you need to do some preparatory work. This involves * making sure that the bore is clear using the CTU, and * running a new wireline log on the CTU to make sure that the proposed perforations actually align with the previously-identified horizons of interest.

Presumably you would prefer to pay for all the extremely expensive SandJet equipment & crew to be lolling around on site until everything is ready. Now, how about following Lonny's suggestion?

...and SandJet crew and gear would move smoothly from the MOU-Fan work to testing the Jurassic, without incurring additional standby fees.

@IJWT - Should have added that the increased complexity of MOU-3 testing will take at least 5 weeks, plus that for MOU-1 and/or MOU-4. Whereas drilling MOU-5 will take only 8 - 10 days, plus a few days for NuTech analysis - so quite possibly the SandJet & drilling results will be available synchronously as originally planned

"For once Paul puts out a RNS that most and hopefully all can understand" Agreed, unfortunately some on here have the comprehension of a backwards 5-yr old and can't understand the big words. That's you, antivenom, now permanently filtered.

It does not say that SV-101 will not be used, just that they are fed up with schedules being changed by others. The as-yet-unidentified overseas rig is stated as being for stepout appraisal of the Jurassic carbonate - that implies to me additional wells after the first one is proven successful. SV-101 could be available to spud as early as w/c 17th June - what I don't know is the projected start date for the 1st Extension Period - presumably this was applied for some time ago.

This morning's RNS shows just how wrong are many 'legitimate shareholders' on here. The daily complaints and sniping by the same group of people prove that they have absolutely no idea about

How to run a business.

How exploration companies work.

How to manage interactions with multiple government departments.

How to manage a supply chain where you are competing for the same equipment. and people against powerful & wealthy companies.

How to operate in a 3rd-world country.

How to operate across three continents simultaneously.

The need to maintain confidentiality for commercially-sensitive information.

How to operate within a tight budget.

All this with just three people.

Some of the attacks on management here are truly shameful – looking at you @PithChetwin as just the most recent example. Hardly surprising that Paul & Lonny are sick to the teeth with your behaviour, and have suggested you copulate in an alternative location.

Hopefully the barnacles will now fall away, and the rest of us can get back to sensible discussion of possibly the most promising company on the LSE.

@Oldslow. That's very interesting - if not a UFO, maybe it's [and this will REALLY wind some people up] a CNG tank that is being set up without bothering with flow testing first, 'cos they already know just how much gas is bursting to get to surface.

Now - am I just trolling Bold, or is this a serious suggestion? DYOR.

“I have bought lots of shares based on statements of other people on here”.

If that was in itself not foolish enough, apparently also based on statements other people have not made...

"Keith Oz said he saw a rig on what he says is our wellpad on the satellite picture a week ago"

I never said anything of the sort. Not surprising there is an investment strategy called the Greater Fool Theory.