Member Info for KeithOz

It exists for hydrocarbons, not sure about helium though. The RNS seemed to indicate the data acquisition was for helium.

The IEA (International Energy Agency) recently released an alarming and controversial report claiming that world hydrocarbon demand would DECREASE 40% by 2050, and recommended that all new exploration activity should cease. Other agencies and interested parties disagree, suggesting that demand will INCREASE 20- 47% by 2050. Rather a large difference of opinion.

The US Congress Committees on Energy have written to the IEA demanding a detailed explanation. Long letter, but interesting reading.

https://www.energy.senate.gov/services/files/8E2BA8FC-08F5-432F-A579-0BE6EEAE81C4

Asterisks to be replaced by share and prophets joined together.

worst tip - a loss of 873.75%, so presumably a leveraged short.

this is required reading: https://www.guerillainvesting.co.uk/2020/09/22/*************-the-stinky-pete-scandal/

"take a bow gob****e ‘stinky pete’ brailey who anonymously posts on a whole host of financial bbs, while failing to declare his identity as a paid ************* hack. london south east being stink’s current favourite."

interesting that on tuesday pete brailey posted this on x: "warning..warning rampathon in progress."

at the same time, antivenom put this on lse "guarantee a placing will be the outcome following a rampathon."

must be purely coincidence that both share an irrational hatred of prd, and use the odd term 'rampathon'.

just sayin'.

@Donal - hope you're right. Noticed in the local Guercif press yesterday that the police raided a brothel - in the Al-Naked area!

Hi NickN, I'm still awake - just. The key piece of new info today is the 'east of Moulouya River flood plain'. That would make it at least 5.5km ESE of MOU-4, still on the 03-ML-06 seismic line. Presumably the original site closer to MOU-4 was found not to be the optimal location - as the area & depth of the prospect has been amended, so the best site has moved. My guess is that an EIA was applied for, but rejected due to the local olive plantation issues. They are obviously very keen to drill at this location, since they are prepared to wait for the new EIA and additional time and cost of extra materials for a deviated well.

My conclusion is that the new site is at 34.28, -3.285. This is an empty patch of ground just to the east of the river, within the floodplain, a couple of hundred metres to the west of extensive olive groves, and exactly 2.3km in a straight line from the MEGP node on the other side of the river, although the actual pipeline would need to be a bit longer. No sign of works yet, but hardly surprising if the new EIA has only just been granted.

@Matt. I like your optimism, but let's really irritate some folks here, and go for an all-out ramp. For those who are unsure of how these numbers have been derived, Scorpion calculate the potential volume, based on size / porosity /charge / pressure from being underground, etc. This gives a high / medium / low estimate - P50 means that they think this is the number which they think there is a 50% chance of being within the structure. This is the unrisked number. That is then risked. To do this, they look at 5 factors - source / migration / reservoir / trap / charge - and assign a score for each. Those scores are multiplied to come up with an overall gcos. If it was risk-free, it would be 100%, which is what it would become in the case of an actual discovery. Scorpion have assigned 12% gcos, and come up with 6 TCF. 100/12 = 8.3. 6 x 8.3 = near enough 50 TCF in a success case.

That's the P50. What about the unrisked P10, which is what Scorpion think is the upside? This means they consider there is only a 10% chance of achieving. Now, I recall from several different sources that the NPV pf 1 TCF is around $1Bn - more if you believe CHAR's recent releases. Someone else can do the sums, I don't do share price predictions.

I was a little bemused to read on the lse HE1 board yesterday about 'flaring helium'. The helium around Guercif - no idea if this is likely to be commercial - is from radioactive decay of the Hercynian Basement rocks that underlie the Jurassic & Triassic. Under our area these are only around 3km deep, the mosaic of faults that is channelling methane will do the same for helium, and of course the structural traps will do the same. I have stuck a diagram on X:

https://x.com/KQuick20704342/status/1821431180832714958

MOU-5 💥🦖🦖🦖🦖🦖💥💥

@O&W. The high Net : Gross in all the main identified zones (MOU-Fan, Ma Sands, TGB-2 Sands, etc.) remains, this is calculated from direct observations while drilling & logging, and forms the basis for the volumetric estimates in the ITR. TGB-4 & TGB-6 contain multiple thin sand beds, but have not been quantified in the ITR. The proposed multiple thin reservoirs I referred to earlier today would be in addition to all these intervals. I chose a very miserly 5% N:G to avoid accusations of ramping from the usual suspects - for all I know it could be 50%, but that might suggest an additional 500 mmcfgd, which is rather a lot of gas.

A couple of relevant quotes from the ITR, p.10: "The interpreted presence of potentially stacked Miocene gas discoveries based on specialist NuTech log analysis has demonstrated the potential for accumulations of gas in multiple, potentially high-quality reservoirs at depths in the range 339m to 1500m MD RKB." (referring to MOU-1). and...

"The gas potential of the Guercif area is further enhanced by the recognition by TransAtlantic of up to 39m of untested gas pay at the base of the Miocene in GRF-1 with average porosities of 20% and average gas saturation (Sg) of 20% in a location which is considered outside of the main prospects mapped by PRD."

Thanks to Paul B for drawing attention to the 'Notes to Editors' at the bottom of yesterday's RNS:

"Predator is an oil & gas company with a diversified portfolio of scaled assets including unique and highly prospective onshore Moroccan gas exposure, with multiple fully financed upcoming catalysts.

Predator has two high quality, scalable gas projects in Morocco with fast pace of commercialisation and blue sky potential. Guercif is a shallow CNG biogenic gas development with multiple traps and at least 4 separate reservoirs with recently drilled wells due to be flow tested. The Giant Jurassic Titanosaurus is a shallow thermogenic gas prospect evaluating 249m of potential gross reservoir thickness in a trap of 187 km2 for pipeline gas to power, with pipeline 2.5km from wellhead. Moroccan gas prices are high and the fiscal terms are some of the best in the world. Predator also has a diversified portfolio of assets across Ireland and Trinidad, which is a near-term revenue-generating project.

Predator has an experienced management team with particular knowledge in Moroccan sub surface and operations. The team specialises in incorporating modern, proven technologies and processes from Canada and the US to provinces where the conventional technologies did not allow their hydrocarbon potential to be revealed."

Almost certain the new PR company wrote this.

Please note "multiple fully financed upcoming catalysts", not 'a couple of possibilities needing a cash raise'.

@F & M. You asked what PG meant by

“Positive results from MOU-3 could potentially transform rigless testing strategies “.

I suspect he is talking about identifying commercial potential that would not be realised using a conventional testing programme.

For the information of those who can only criticise others without providing anything useful themselves, I must stress that this is only speculation on my part. During past presentations, Paul has in passing mentioned the presence of 'unconventional gas', without expanding upon what that means. All of the current boreholes have demonstrated near-continuous biogenic gas shows while drilling, in some cases over intervals of hundreds of metres. These shows are not definitively associated with obvious reservoir strata. I suspect that these shows are the cumulative result of many thin reservoir beds, whose thickness is below the resolution of conventional logging - probably less than a metre. Such shows have also been recorded in the logs of many older pre-PRD wells including GRF-1, TAF-1X, MSD-1, KDH-1, TFR-1, DGR-1 & DGR-3 - these were all seen as being non-economic, since using existing technology it would not be possible to identify or accurately perforate such thin reservoirs. Perhaps all these previously-tested prospects may now prove to have economic accumulations of gas.

PRD are now using a combination of technologies that have never before been used in Africa - NuTech analysis can identify potential reservoirs down to perhaps 25cm, and Sandjet can accurately locate and perforate them. The current MOU-3 testing programme is looking specifically at such thin formations within the TGB6 sands (which extend across to MOU-1). I posted a few weeks ago that such thin beds can extend over huge areas, and if the poroperm is adequate, could be the source of surprisingly large volumes of gas - Caterham7 kindly joined the conversation and concurred.

For MOU-1, the 6th July 2021 RNS stated that elevated background gas shows were present from 605m to 1487m, a depth of 882m. Assuming this show was the result of numerous thin beds, even if the net : gross was only 5%, that still gives 45m of potential pay. Even thin reservoirs in the Rharb basin have flowed at a rate equivalent to 1mmcfgd or more per vertical metre, so that is a huge amount of potentially commercial gas that has been previously overlooked. The old saying 'big fields get bigger' is not due to discovering more hydrocarbons, but improved recovery due to better technology.

If these suppositions are correct, there is a great deal of upside potential that could be unlocked in both Morocco & T & T using these new technologies in current and future prospects - testing of the MOU-3 TGB-6 sequences will be the proof of the pudding. Yesterday Malcy said "there are very substantial expectations around". For once, Malcy is correct.

I now have access to a big enough screen to view the photos properly. Before you can start doing anything, the CT guide arch and tower have to be put on top of the Christmas tree and everything connected up. The bore will need to be checked for debris, and if necessary, cleaned out. Next will be the accurate depth logging with the tool shown lying on a bench in one of the pictures. Only after that can the first Sandjet perforation run be done, starting at the bottom. I assume they are performing intermittent pressure testing, in which case gas pressure and flow rate will be measured over several consecutive periods of perhaps 6 hours each, with similar length gaps where the flow is shut off, in between each measurement period. Rates of decline in pressure and flow rates are fed into calculations that determine reservoir volume. The bore will then be temporarily plugged above the perforation point, and the whole procedure repeated for the next interval above that is to be tested.

Where I come from, a bean counter is an accountant, someone who has qualifications and experience that would enable them to read a company's accounts, and make accurate projections from that data.

It would therefore be expected that someone who calls themselves.'beancounter' would have actually read the last set of company accounts and understood them.

'Beancounter' has taken the Administration Expenses of £4,765,203, rounded them to £4.8M, and divided by 12 to come up with a monthly expenditure of £400K, then multiplied by 7 to take us to the end of July, and concluded the Company is close to running out of cash.

This ignores the fact that last financial year there are three very substantial one-offs included in that £4.8M - £1,300,725 for production of two Independent Technical Reports, £1,540,481 for allocation of options, and amounts of £501,205 & £158,488 in fees related to the Prospectus and Listing of placing shares.

This reduces the ongoing Admin expenses to £1.3M per year, or £760K ytd, substantially less than the £2.8M claimed. Conclusion - the company is not running out of cash, particularly since 'beancounter' guesses for Phase 2 rigless testing in June & July (£1M+) and T & T spend in first half of this year (£500k+) are certain to be vastly overestimated.

Source: Financial Statements for the Year Ended 31 December 2023, released 10th April 2024, Note 4.

...and it looks as if Lease Operators are likely to acquire Trinity, as they have just outbid TXP. LOL also operate Rio Claro and Balata East fields, so there could be plenty of future CO2EOR work becoming available to add to this existing agreement.

@Colon - there are two wells called Jacobin-1 - There is ours on the Cory Moruga field which was drilled yonks ago, and from which Lonny has shown the first trace of oil today. There is also a different well called Jacobin-1 on the Palo Seco field, drilled last year by Trinity - this is what the article you quoted is describing. As I said, very confusing.

I think that this is just a watery smear brought up during the initial cleaning up process, perforation will not yet have started. Nice to see work is actually ongoing though, hopefully some real oil flow soon.

@Colon - erm, this is not about our Jacobin-1 on Cory Moruga. It is Trinity's on the Palo Seco field. Confusing to have two wells with the same name.

Https://hydrocarbons.onhym.com/sites/all/themes/hydrocarbure/images/node/Petroleum_Agreement_Model_2021.pdf

Discovery Bonus - Article 14.1. You might also want to read through Article 5.2 - Discovery Appraisal.

@Shagged - my comment was of course not directed at you, apologies if you thought it was. Pleased to see you are still topping up at this level, I hope the proceeds will enable you to get back with the family as soon as possible - I know all too well the pains of working away.