Member Info for KeithOz

@Kasjnaton - Looks like a marquee for catering, local sleep, etc. A lot more peaceful spot than putting it next to the motorway at MOU-3. It's been there since before the announced start of the testing programme.

The CNG pilot project is fully funded from existing resources. It should have been obvious from my post that I was referring to the additional costs of starting off with a larger scale operation - initially 10mmcfgd which would easily be taken up by current industrial requirements. PRD mentioned in the 6th June RNS that the expectation is to flow 50 mmcfgd just from the two main horizons in MOU-3. My guess is that it would take a couple of years for industry requirements to ramp up to that amount, with PRD additional costs being financed from cashflow.

You may like to remind yourselves of the numbers attached to a 20mmcfgd scenario from p.53 0f the ITR - as well as increased sales and profit, there are obviously going to be increased capex & opex requirements:

"Using a flat US$12 per MCF for the 6 year duration of the model, CAPEX for a 6-year 20MMScf/d CNG case

net 75% to PRD is estimated at c.US$48.77m (Gross CAPEX US$65m). OPEX for a 6-year 20MMScf/d CNG

case net 75% to PRD is estimated at c.US$126.8m (Gross US$ 167.7m) which yields Gross Revenues post

Tax net to PRD at 75% of US$ 256.2m (343m Gross) taking into account a 10-yr Corporation Tax holiday

which equates to Gross cash flow of US$277m net US$207m to PRD. The forecast model yields an NPV

10% discount of US$128m net to PRD."

SDX already sells their gas for quarterly advance payment, so there is a precedent set in Morocco for the gas sales agreement with Afriquia Gaz to provide PRD with upfront money. This would cover any remaining costs needed for the CNG wellhead unit and also possibly tankers, if they are to be purchased rather than leased. 3 month's supply of 10mmcfgd at $12 per mcf gives an upfront payment of $10.8M.

Pianao tuition? Not a lot of people know this - but Nigel Haemoglobin is a pianist. I think mostly low-brow classical stuff - from his writing I suspect that BWV1080 or LvB op 106 and 53 might be a little too much for him. But would anyone want to take his advice?

Just picked the last of the oranges & pineapples ahead of forecast frost next week.

@Gudin: Am I to assume from your response that you consider yourself to be one of the knights in shining armour protecting the naïve? If so, how about learning to read:

1. "They have also been exercising A PROPORTION of these each year, which is a standard de-risking procedure

2. "There was also the suggestion that this would NOT JUST be for de-risking, but that Novum already knew the results and were getting out while they could".

Have a lovely week sitting on the sidelines.

This can't possibly be correct. It appears that someone is buying shares and the price is going up. This is not in line with what we had been assured by several honest and reliable frequent posters, who come here only with the most altruistic motive of preventing innocent investors from being duped to buy into the Predator scam. They told us that Novum had only converted their 5½ million options in order to dump the shares ahead of testing results, which will drive down the share price. There was also the suggestion that this would not just be for de-risking, but that Novum already knew the results and were getting out while they could. Perhaps all those buys are actually sells, but we are too dumb to realise.

Yes, this needs to be ramped up! How about this:

"15 - 20% one day rise just around the corner. Mark my words :-)" 19 Sep 2023 19:04

"Good to see GRH coming out all guns blazing." 6 Aug 2023 21:31

"The very obvious troll activity should instil confidence in what is about to unravel. Absolute desperation in their postings means one thing and ONE thing only. Just remember the reasons you invested in the first instance and ignore the utter poison they are baiting you with." 29 Jul 2023 12:54

"Fabulous company with global dominance potential." 28 Jul 2023 10:42

"This is a special time to be invested in this particular company. Heavy news period ahead and a great team at the helm. " 5 Jul 2023 22:25.

Thank you, Anti-venom for all those encouraging words.

"Delays' beyond the short-term expectations of halfwits who are unable to apply logical thinking of their own.

On 3rd July I posted twice on this topic, first time with detailed projected timings for various scenarios, 2nd time I said " I think it highly unlikely that the results of any single test would be announced separately for a number of reasons, one of which is that if you issued an RNS for one, it would set the precedent for issuing one for each of them. Who in their right mind would issue 17+ RNSs over a period of 5 weeks? Another is that determinations of volume would require integration of results from several different tests. There are more reasons, perhaps folk would like to work these out for themselves".

It looks like I will have to spell it out. After the testing is finished, results need to be checked, integrated, and conclusions drawn. These will then need to be discussed with ONHYM, and if at the upper end of expectations will almost certainly have to be discussed with higher levels of government, quite possibly at the highest level - read this article to understand why - https://www.theafricareport.com/199829/will-morocco-hit-the-oil-jackpot/ It is also likely that negotiations will need to be finalised with Afriquia Gaz - and under the LSE listing rules discussions of this nature provide an exemption from the normal requirement for immediate release of information. Finally, RNS wording will need to be agreed with all stakeholders.

So yes, there will be 'delays' - but these are for positive reasons, and those reasons are why I have previously said there will most likely be a single announcement post-testing of MOU-3, and it will not occur before mid-July. I have not discussed this timetable with GRH, but he has come to the same conclusion.

Just a thought to cheer you up - If things were NOT going well with testing for Predator, I am sure that the slick new PR agency would have advised them to drop the bad news yesterday, under the cover of the election news.

I said "I think it highly unlikely that the results of any single test would be announced separately" for a number of reasons, one of which is that if you issued an RNS for one, it would set the precedent for issuing one for each of them. Who in their right mind would issue 17+ RNSs over a period of 5 weeks? Another is that determinations of volume would require integration of results from several different tests. There are more reasons, perhaps folk would like to work these out for themselves.

@Ibiza - I am not aware that Sandjet was being used by SDX, or by anyone in Morocco. Their last two wells drilled were KSR-2, which has been producing gas since the end of May; and BMK-1, which was suspended at the start of June awaiting a sidetrack.

It would seem unlikely that PRD would start operations without confirmation of the imminent arrival of the Sandjet gear, otherwise they would be paying for the CTU, etc., to be sitting around doing nothing.

@tmhsdx6 - my interpretation of the June 6th RNS (quite possibly incorrect) is that this is the order of operations:

1. Check the borehole and if necessary, do any cleaning up with the CTU.

2. Run a repeat log using the CTU to ensure that the depths of zones of interest are precisely located - this is necessary since the coiled tubing may have slightly different coefficients of linear & thermal expansion from both a wireline and a drill string.

I am unsure if these stages are included in the 'at least five weeks' estimate, or are additional to it.

3. Sandjet perforation of the TGB4 Sands, the lowest strata to be tested. This will be done in 4 stages, over a gross interval of 24m. Gas may flow at any (or hopefully all) of these stages. Pressure and flow rates will be recorded. PRD are hoping for flows of 30-40mmcfgd from this sequence.

4. The borehole will temporarily be plugged above the TGB4 interval, to prevent gas flow from this lower level interfering with later readings from intervals higher up the borehole.

5. Sandjet perforation and recording of gas pressures and flow rates will be performed for the TGB6 Sands, and then the uppermost Ma Sands. As in 4 above, a plug will be put in place to separate potential gas flows and pressure readings. A gross interval of 80m will be tested at 13 different perforation points across these two formations. Again, gas could flow from any or all of these perforation points. PRD expectations are for flows of 10 - 20 mmcfgd for these two horizons.

6. They may decide to test additional horizons in MOU-3, although this is unclear from the RNS. If so, I would expect this most likely to be the surprise discovery of shallow overpressured sands. These are currently behind two layers of casing - these can be penetrated by sandjet, but would be highly problematic using conventional explosive perforation.

7. They will then decide whether to move on to MOU-1 to test the TGB2 Sands, or MOU-4 to test the MOU-Fan sequence and/or the Jurassic carbonate.

I think it highly unlikely that the results of any single test would be announced separately - we would have heard something by now - but that there will be a single announcement for comprehensive results for the whole of MOU-3. There is also the less likely possibility that no announcement will be made until the entire programme (including MOU-1 or MOU-4) is completed.

If all stages from 1 to 5 above are included in the 'at least five weeks' estimate, we could expect an announcement by mid-July. If 1 & 2 are not included, add a week. For 6, add a few days. For 7, add one to two weeks.

Again, just my guess based on what we were told a month ago - as always, plans can change depending on results.

@MunnieTorx - You are absolutely correct - RNS 13th June 2023:

"Prior to setting 95/8" casing an INFLOW OF GAS into the well was experienced. A substantial drilling break from 339 to 350 metres TVD KB was identified as the source of the gas. This correlated with an 11 metre-thick, unconsolidated, good quality sand with elevated background gas readings.

Mud weight was gradually increased to 1.25 S.G., above that required to balance hydrostatic pressure. to reduce the INFLOW OF GAS into the well. This gas zone is therefore significantly overpressured (122 psi overpressured) and likely to be supported by connectivity to gas volume to provide pressure support."

and the ITR p.7 clearly refers to this as Contingent Resources, and on p.17 terms this a discovery.

@Barhut. Correct: "However there exists a material uncertainty that may cast significant doubt over the ability of the Group to continue as a going concern. The Board believes it has options to raise external capital, but cannot guarantee the amount and timing of any proposed financing. The Board would also note that there are no guarantees that current discussions with the potential buyers of the South Disouq asset in Egypt and potential farm-in partners in Morocco will be favourably concluded and that arrangement with creditors will remain negotiable."

SLR calculated that I-T could produce an incremental 6.8M Bbl from use of CO2EOR, in addition to conventional production. This was at a cost of around $30 per Bbl. At $80 per Bbl, that gives a profit of $374M. I'll let you decide if that is a disaster or not.

It is now a requirement for development approval that plans for EOR are presented for ALL fields in T & T. There are a lot of old fields that would benefit from CO2EOR, and the original pilot plan has demonstrated that this is workable. That is one hell of a lot of potential business. Paul Griffiths is a member of the T & T government EOR committee. Paul has always said that this would be run as a separate service business, requiring little PRD management input.

I would like to point out that I only started this thread due to CEG's announcement today - just to let certain people know that I am not trying to deflect attention away from Morocco - I am expecting news on this front by mid-July, until then, there is little point adding further speculation.

From today's CEG Annual Report:

"Through 2023 we also spent a substantial amount of time and effort on trying to develop options to expand our Trinidad business into a more sizeable and profitable production operation, either through organic growth or through adding new acreage to our portfolio. However, despite our best efforts, we did not make any progress of note on this important task.

In summary therefore, insofar as our business in Trinidad is concerned, I can report that 2023 was a mixed year. We largely met our core objectives of achieving cashflow breakeven operations and selling non-core assets. But, we did not turn a profit, and we did not "crack the code" as to how, in the longer term, we can transform the Trinidad business into a profitable production base of greater scale. We will continue our efforts to make progress on this front in the coming year."

I suspect if CEG are unsuccessful with their cashflow objectives for T & T, but their Uruguay operations are doing well, they will offload the Inniss-Trinity & Goudron fields. If PRD are doing well with Cory-Moruga, they could well pick up these licences with the aim of applying CO2EOR to increase production & profitability.

Lots of (deliberate?) misinformation today about these warrants. I suggest you look at Note 20 in the recently published accounts (RNS 10th April). This gives the numbers, exercise prices, and expiry dates of warrants and to which organisations they were issued. Novum have been receiving them in association with share placings for years - it is their fee for services. They have also been exercising a proportion of these each year, which is a standard de-risking procedure, and is a necessary way for the broker to generate income - they are a services organisation, not an investment fund.

Three things to consider.

* The SV-101 has been released & demobilised. This means SOU have finished with it.

* It is stacked at Tendrara.

* SOU is awaiting additional wellhead equipment to run completion tubing.

It doesn't say SV-101 is taking part in the latter operation, it says they are finished with it. So why is it parked there? PRD are not ready for it, since the 1st Extension Period has not yet been granted, and quite possibly the drill pad, for what may well be a slightly changed location, is not ready. It is currently in a secure place, with ongoing operations on site 24/7. Once PRD have permissions & groundworks in place, the rig can make a single move to the new pad, which by then will also be a secure location with ongoing operations. No conspiracy theories necessary.

"The MOU-5 well will now commence drilling as soon as practical after entry into the First Extension Period" RNS 6/6/24.