Member Info for KeithOz

Not 400,000 shares dumped. Clearly a bed & ISA. Knows as much about the workings of the market as about running a company - sod all in both cases.

Again of course in my opinion, but probably in everyone else's opinion as well.

Yes, let's announce a commercial discovery as soon as possible, which could even be before a definitive gas sales agreement is signed. The consequence would be having to pay $1,000,000 to the Moroccan government as the 'Discovery Bonus' detailed in PRD's licencing rights. London Stock Exchange listing rules are that news that is likely to have an effect on the share price has to be released as soon as possible. But there are limited exceptions - one of which is if a confidential commercial agreement is under negotiation. Afriquia Gaz has exclusive negotiation rights until November 27th 2024, and PRD has every right not to make an announcement that falls within the envelope of those commercial discussions.

I am sure an RNS regarding flow rates and connected volumes will be released as soon as is practicable - which is likely to be the same time as an RNS regarding the GSA, which hopefully will include some upfront cash to pay for the Discovery Bonus as well as finalising the CNG plant development.

All in my own opinion of course, but at least I thought first before writing.

Oh, meant to add that some of the confusion is due to the hydrocarbons being potentially sourced from multiple locations, due to the mosaic fault system. I recall a conversation a year or more back, where we thought it likely that the gas cloud that appears on one of the seismic slices comes from both the MOU-Fan and the Jurassic, suggesting both structures were filled-to-spill.

@Staffy. In Casablanca, Ilsa said "Play it, Sam" (referring to As Time Goes By). I have no idea why everyone thinks she said "play it again, Sam". She didn't, nor did anyone else.

@BRV. I think a lot of folks (including Paul & Lonny!) have been wondering exactly what we have got with Titanosaurus. Initially, it was called MOU-NE, and believed to be an oil prospect. Surface geochem work on the Guercif licence area has shown seeps of both oil & gas, but I am not aware of any work that has been done directly above this prospect. I am told that hyperspectral satellite imaging shows oil, gas & condensates. My guess is that conclusions have changed as more work has been completed.

The last RNS looks to have come down firmly on the side of dry gas, as indicated by NuTech identifying this at the bottom of the structure. Previously the thought was perhaps oil or condensate overlain by a gas cap. (Some may be confused by the term dry gas - this is basically pure methane - wet gas is methane plus other longer chain hydrocarbons such as butane, propane, etc., nothing to do with water content).

Is this good or bad? Normally oil and condensate would have higher value - but only if you have the necessary infrastructure. Condensates would require separation, then trucking to another location for processing and bottling. Oil would need to be trucked (if small quantities) or piped (if large quantities) to a refinery. Unfortunately, there is only one refinery in Morocco; even more unfortunately it is a long distance away - Mohammedia, on the Atlantic coast; and worst of all it has been mothballed for eight years with its ownership undergoing a protracted and as yet unresolved legal dispute.

My conclusion is that dry gas would be the best and simplest opportunity, have by far the lowest capex and opex, giving a high NPV and IRR, and thus be most attractive to a purchaser. Oil could even be a stranded asset. If we really were able to supply 0.5 BCF of gas a day, 1 TCF would only last 5½ years, so my guess is that Paul thinks there is more than 1 TCF.

I've posted this before, but worth looking at again - some nice vuggy carbonate from Shaikan, discovered by Adnan Samarrai. https://x.com/KQuick20704342/status/1818055017695428837/photo/1

The Guercif Jurassic carbonate has undergone two cycles of inversion - so is very likely to have fracture porosity. It is believed to have had subaerial exposure, resulting in enhanced porosity development. Rock chips from MOU-4 have demonstrated 20% porosity, which can only be a result of one or both of the above processes. Field studies have looked at corresponding strata and structures outcropping at surface within the Guercif surrounds.

Do those cracks, pores & vugs contain water. oil, gas or condensate? NuTech analysis says hydrocarbons are present, with up to 73% gas saturation. The structure was 200m deeper than initially expected, thus substantially raising the previously anticipated gas pressure. Source rock studies have shown the directly underlying strata to have been in the condensate window. Surface seepage studies and hyperspectral satellite imagery suggest that there is unlikely to be Guinness. But that's only a geologist's opinion, I am sure there are many here who know better.

PRD management are spending time & money on studies for flowing up to 0.5 BCF a day. That's $5M a day. But what do they know? They just run the company, have all the data in front of them, and both have more experience of O & G in Morocco than anyone else on Earth. Clearly the same people here know better.

@Voskos. 1. Maybe you missed the point of my post - which was that folks are perhaps not realising that we could get some very material information on the Jurassic carbonate prospect before drilling MOU-5. 2. I didn't say 'what if', I was reposting GRH from Twitter. 3. Have you considered that the 'what if' that is being suggested is more than 'just speculation'?

Interestingly, Graham has just posted a follow-up on X:

"First time from ROB in PUBLIC

WHAT IF

The THERMOGENIC gas encountered at base of MOU4 was

⭐MORE THAN 2 METRES...

🦕

⭐AT APPRECIABLE PRESSURE

🦕"

and...

"Folk might want to consider

⭐The DERIVATION of the '2 metres' measurement

⭐ROB's witterings about 'inversions'

BTW...

DISCOVERING a VERY LARGE

Early Jurassic

HYDROCARBON CHARGED structure

at SUCH shallow levels

Is MOST remarkable."

Hope our speculations do not take too long to be realised.

Don't bother with further boring repetition of the "but we don't even know if they've started testing" cr@p, BUT - suppose MOU-4 is tested, and the Jurassic horizon at the bottom actually flows gas. That will be from the base of a 280+m deep structure covering 187km². This alone would be a hugely important discovery, suggesting that the entire structure could be gas-filled. The actual drilling of MOU-5 will then just be confirmation to ensure that there is not vertical compartmentalisation, with subsequent appraisal drills to evaluate horizontal continuity.

@IJWT. You asked "Would love to see a breakdown of the spend from funds raised and shares awarded to management as well as he additional payments for things like desktop studies and bonuses when there has been such huge delays in progressing this."

I suggest you read the latest Annual Report, pp77-83 for Director's remuneration, and pp102-110 for a full breakdown of expenditures and determination of carrying value.

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/04/POGH-2023-Annual-Report-RNS-FINAL-09.04.2024-not-executed.pdf

PRD is a very unusual company - the amount of financial detail provided is extraordinary, as is the technical information provided to shareholders - for example, have you ever seen any other company publish a full well log?

Hi Nick - From the most recent RNS, it is clear that the first Titanosaurus drill will be somewhere close to what the ITR calls MOU-SE, which is a couple of km from both MOU-4 & the MEP. The exact planned location may have recently changed, as knowledge about the prospect has increased.

In the RNS of 12 Jan 2024, it was presented as 124km². Two weeks later, the ITR said 177km². By the 06 June RNS, it had grown again, to 187km² and up to 289m thick. I would assume these increases in known area would give more possibilities for good drill sites. I'm not too fussed where they put it, as long as it's in the right place, and soon 😍

Should read "that leaves position 3" of course! Surface changes were between 25th Jan and 2nd Feb, using Sentinel 2.

Since we can't post photos here, I have put a map on X:

https://x.com/KQuick20704342/status/1815966503793221721/photo/1

It's too complicated to explain in the short space available there, so here goes. The photo is an annotated view from Google Earth view in April this year.

P.38 of the ITR shows MOU-5 on seismic line 03-ML-06, 2.35km ESE from MOU-4. RNSs of 11 & 13 July 2023 say 2.6 km to the SE of MOU4. The two red arcs are of these radii, centred on MOU-4. The seismic line is in green. I do not know where the nodes are on the MEP, but have shown it in light blue. Dark blue is a circle 2.3km in diameter with ideal MOU-5 position as centre, intersecting the MEP at two points.

Positions 1 & 2 are perfect locations, but seem too small to be pads, and are parts of small farmyards. Position 4 is a building materials yard that has been mentioned previously, but I think it is too far south to be on the Titanosaurus prospect.

That leaves position 4, which is the right size and shape and distance from MOU-4, but 0.75km south of the seismic line. This is close to the junction of the N15 and a minor road, with a rubbish dump on the opposite side of the minor road. I wrote about this site in February, when both the area's surface and access tracks changed markedly compared to colour changes in nearby fields. This remains my favoured site - over to the satellite sleuths.

@Oladopo. You should not be concerned about thin sands. The reason they are not commonly recognised as gas-producing horizons is because standard logging methodology has poor resolution, so cannot detect potential gas-bearing strata less than 1m thick. NuTech log analysis has much greater resolution, so can detect far more potential reservoirs that might otherwise be missed. Some of the horizons in the current Sandjet evaluation are these thin sands, but there are plenty of much thicker strata being tested as well.

Thin does not necessarily mean small - there are plenty of examples of thin sand beds that have enormous lateral continuity. About a year ago, Caterham7 provided a reference regarding such thin sands, from which I quote:

"Beds from the Madeira basin plain are known to be continuous over 100-700 km, with sand correlated over 100-200 km (Stevenson et al., 2013), although only 2 out of 20 described turbidites have a maximum thickness greater than 0.3 m. On the Cascadia margin (Adams, 1990; Nelson et al., 2000), thirteen (30-60 cm thick) seismic-triggered turbidite beds are continuous for more than 500 km downstream in the Cascadia channel, whilst one 20 cm thick turbidite is continuous for ‘only’ 150 km in the Astoria channel. In the Mediterranean, a megaturbidite connected to the tsunami triggered by the Crete earthquake (Polonia et al., 2016) can be correlated for more than 100 km; however, most of that deposit (up to 24 m) is composed of mud, while the maximum reported sand thickness is 1.3 m (Hieke and Werner, 2000). The maximum sand thickness of the Sumatran margin 2004 event is 1 m, but it is continuous for more than 200 km (Patton et al., 2015).

https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/131925/7/1-s2.0-S0264817218302551-main.pdf

It must be very frustrating being one of the spread betters on here (they're easy to spot). To make money, they have to overcome a high initial spread, and sadly for them the lack of a volatile share price is preventing exit before fast-approaching expiry. Some of them seemed to be betting on a news release 5 weeks after the 6th June. Shame they didn't actually read the RNS before putting their highly leveraged money down.

Looking at all the possibilities, I came up with a timeframe from as early as the beginning of last week, potentially right through to the start of the second week in September. As for "everyday without news is a worrying sign", that shows a rather poor understanding. It may be quite possible that the Sandjet equipment and crew didn't arrive until two weeks after they started preliminary work with the CTU. They wouldn't leave it any longer, thus having to pay for expensive gear & people that they couldn't use. The actual Sandjet perforation of each horizon would take less time than gas flow & pressure testing, so if all horizons could not be penetrated, they would already have finished, since even on a pessimistic timescale they would be well over halfway through.

My view is that every day without news means that gas has been flowed at multiple horizons, and that they are testing as many additional points as practicable. Data will need to be integrated, reviewed by Scorpion for them to make volumetric calculations, discussed with ONHYM, and a final contract agreed with Afriquia Gaz.

So, just in my opinion, this supposed delay is good for everyone except those spread betters.

@Eurochamps - "INITIALLY 400 mmcfgd" = $1.5Bn a year.

They were termed a 'discovery' in the ITR.

" I am looking forward to positive results from predators. Flow testing of mou3 which will validate the wire line logs interpreted by nuetech." (sic)

May I suggest a revised version?

" I am looking forward to positive results from Predator's flow testing of MOU-3, which will validate the wireline logs interpreted by Nutech, the need to compensate for overpressure from top to bottom of the borehole, the inflow of gas at such high pressure in the upper levels that they nearly lost the hole, and the statement in the RNS of 20th Feb 2024 which said: 'Seven gas samples collected in isotubes in MOU-3 whilst drilling at measured depths of 446, 508, 555, 750, 817, 846 and 1395 metres have now been analysed by Applied Petroleum Technology (UK) Ltd. ("APT") in their Oslo laboratory. Gas composition is in the range 98.04 to 99.57% methane, making it ideal for a Compressed Natural Gas development with minimum processing. Isotope analysis indicates the gas is biogenic in origin."

There, that's made it a little closer to actuality.

"RNS news service is currently experiencing a 3rd party global technical issue, preventing news from being published on www.londonstockexchange.com. Technical teams are working to restore the service. Other services across the Group, including London Stock Exchange continue to operate as normal."

This is due to problems with the CrowdStrike security suite used by Microsoft. Australia has effectively shut down, no transactions available for anything, for several hours.

There is a suggestion here that the shallow formation in MOU-3 with highly overpressured gas, independently estimated at 30 BCF, would not be commercial. This just shows the level of understanding of some who would like you to think that they are highly knowledgeable about all things gaseous. The NPV10 of that amount of gas is worth more than the current PRD market cap. Management have already stated that it is readily accessible using Sandjet perforation.

Perhaps this person is not aware that SDX is happily drilling ½ BCF prospects and connecting them up to their pipeline system. I would not be surprised if they also think the drilling break referred to earlier is when the crew sit round sharing mint tea and a spliff.