MOU-3 Q & A25 Feb 2025 00:31
I have been asked a few questions about MOU-3 and swabbing. As a starter for your own further research, it may be helpful to briefly summarise some questions and answers, with the important proviso that I am a geologist, not an engineer. Some here with more relevant knowledge may wish to correct and clarify – please do!
Q. When will swabbing start, and why has it taken so long?
A. I expect the swabbing unit on site within the next couple of weeks.
The ONHYM unit is the only one in Morocco, currently engaged in clearing out silted-up water bores – lack of water is a major political issue. The local crew of this unit will only have experience of swabbing normopressured bores of perhaps 200m maximum, so it will be necessary to have management by the Canadian O & G engineers who will also operate SV-101. Paul said in the latest Vox markets video at 10m35s “It's probably at the same time we're drilling MOU-5, and again there's another reason for that - you've got to mobilise equipment [and crew]… we want to do it at the same time, that's the way you save costs”
There has also been the need to develop a safety case assessment to prevent possible blowout– see below.
Q. What is involved?
A. The bore is currently filled with a mixture of water, drilling fluid and fine mud. The weight of this exerts downward pressure, preventing gas flowing out from the reservoir formations – this is termed the drawdown pressure. The deepest strata of interest are at 1437m. If there was this depth of just water, that column would exert 208psi – but it's a lot denser than water, so expect perhaps twice that drawdown pressure. The muddy fluid needs to be scooped/sucked up, until the gas pressure is greater than the drawdown pressure, enabling the gas to flow to surface.
Q. How long will it take?
A. In a simple situation, it could be a couple of days – but this is potentially more difficult. The Ma Sands from 815 – 895m are at 159.5psi, the TGB-4 Sands from 1046 – 1070m are at 246.5 psi. These are already mildly overpressured (130psi and 155psi would be expected respectively if normopressured), but the infiltration of crud into the formation may be masking considerably higher pressure, which if mishandled could result in a blowout that would permanently damage the borehole. It will be necessary to progress slowly and carefully.
Q. Is it worth the effort?
A. Jon Tingas, reservoir engineer, is of the opinion that gas will flow. If so, the Ma sands 2C resource is 62 BCF, TGB-4 is 268 BCF, MOU-Fan is 393 BCF. Various sources have suggested an NPV of $2 per BCF, suggesting a total value of $1.45 Bn, or £1.15 Bn.
The above information is from RNS's over the last 18 months, the 2022 SLR CPR, Jan 2024 ITR, Vox presentation October 2024, and IMC presentation Jan 2025 – especially Appendix slides 3 & 4, from 37m.
I strongly suggest you re-read the relevant sections in all of these.
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