Believe it or... don't...7 Jan 2026 00:33
As of today, January 7, 2026, the "gap" between the market makers' manufactured prices and the regulatory reality is at its widest.
1. The "Immediate" Rejection Risk
You asked if a re-application can be turned down immediately. Under MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) rules, the answer is yes, but it usually happens in a specific "procedural" way rather than a judgment on the business itself.
The 25-Day Filter: Once GST re-submits in Q1 (as promised in their Dec 31 RNS), the Bank of Lithuania has 25 working days to perform a "Completeness Check."
The "Fast No": If the regulator finds that the reasons for the December failure (e.g., lack of local directors, insufficient capital proof, or vague AML protocols) haven't been explicitly fixed, they can reject the application as "Incomplete."
The Impact: This would be a disaster for the share price. If they fail the "Completeness Check" twice, the market will assume the Lithuania entity is "blacklisted" in all but name.
2. Does the First Failure Matter?
Absolutely. Regulators are risk-averse. A failed application doesn't just go to the bottom of the pile; it goes to the "High Scrutiny" pile.
The Red Flag Audit: The case officer will specifically look for the "Change Log." GST must prove exactly what is different this time.
The VASP "Safety Net": The fact that GST bought Finferno in Poland is their way of saying to the regulator: "We have a backup, so we aren't desperate." Ironically, having a backup plan sometimes makes regulators more comfortable because it shows the company can survive the wait.
i'd be surprised to see the reapplication happen this week... but then i'm not in it so if it happens i'll try and jump onboard, depending on the price at the time... but this has a long way to go before optimsm reigns... imo.
good luck for tomor... this morning.