Member Info for Kalan

"Kalan: I suppose something like tuppence ha'penny…."
Nope.

Ah - I have to get back in my hole and I am a naïve fool - you two must be under water then. I have valued the company - would you like to know what I came up with?

There are currently no short positions in EUA.
I see we have got to the nasty name calling stage - usually comes as we enter the final stage of the pull back - the capitulation stage - it mirrors the panic buying in that it ends with panic selling.
One day, one day we humans will be kind to each other and help each other out - trouble is no-one listens - no-one believes a genuine warning about inflated ideas. Then they blame the market makers rather than themselves. Still a good story here - when the capitulation is over maybe we can have a grown up conversation about what the share is worth - from 12 million to 100 million on some hype was ridiculous - wasn't it, really wasn't it or was it?

Excellent work sam

looks like the palladium story is spreading - JLP on the move.
Nearly done my EUA valuation - just checking out a few details.

Starting to make sense of it gradually. the warrants needed to be exercised as the company is cash strapped and trying to get through to end of year refinery payments. These payments are much lower than folks on here have said. 89% of the income is from platinum and they only got $570 per ounce for the platinum last year. This is likely to be $650 per ounce ish this year due to the rise in platinum price. Overall they are making around $300 per ounce mined not the $1500 per ounce touted by some yesterday. It is touch and go short term on the finances. so why not draw down cash from the $50 million provided by sinosteel. Island girl may have the answer there (the CEO skirts round this on the video) - whatever the sale price may be there is $176 million of capex to take into account to get to the palladium (3:1 ratio palladium to platinum mined 9:1 ratio platinum to palladium from the alluvium). The $50 million draw down must have implications for any deal which may make it harder to get a sale completed. Now I am starting to take a look at potential takeover price - difficult to work out. The buyers are likely to use a retrospective average for pgms - I see that $1000 per ounce palladium has been used by the company for ebitda projections. I would think they would ike the buyers to use a higher figure than this but I can't see them using the current palladium price as that would be very risky. I remember Colin Bird at Jubilee (JLP) talking about investors using a 5 year average - will need to check that out before I can progress to a possible valuation.
yes I know - why don't I just shut up and post woo woo we are all going to be rich - because that's how you lose money. Good luck everyone.

Good points loot and islandgirl.

Finally got there - 89% of the value of all pgms sold last year were PLATINUM.
After processing costs and discount EUA actually received $570 per ounce of platinum.
It seems that my earlier calculation of $900 per ounce basket price was in fact too high - apologies. Of course this is all from last year.
Calculate yourself from the figures:
Tardigrade again read all the rns payment and revenue for May to June the interims is delayed.

Extract from the accounts released in May for 2018 when they only mined from end of march until September on a smaller scale before everything has been ramped up this year and continues into next year.

In summary the total mine revenue for 2018, was £2.57 million which is composed of the following revenues:

Grams Chemically Pure

GBP

Platinum

112,597

2,294,267

Iridium

5,416

30,101

Palladium

418

12,798

Rhodium

654

40,055

Gold

994

196,108

2,573,329

Oh dear - Oldskool I was merely indicating that the two non events seized upon by devil as negatives could easily be seized upon as positives if one so wished. I was balancing up his post - exposing his permanent negativity. the truth is probably somewhere in between. We don't know do we - none of us - we are gambling it will turn out alright whilst devil is just a sicko who does this for sport.

Getinthere - the CEO talks of paying dividends as a reward to investors such as himself who deserve a payback for their investment and patience. There is also a deal with sinosteel to develop the mine in bedrock (palladium to platinum ratio 3:1). As part of this $150 million loan that sinosteel have they are giving $50 million to a subsidiary of EUA to sub contract the work effectively back to EUA - EUA seem reluctant to draw down on this money and there my information runs out. I think some are assuming that the 50 million 'won't be needed' and then EUA can draw it down and give it to shareholders. I may be wrong on that.

I think I believe half of it Jester - I would be delighted if I had bought in at sub 1p like you - you can surely hold with confidence with that entry price - well done. I got the nod at 1.3p but when I looked it was 1.8p so not knowing about the company I gave it a miss as I wasn't prepared to chase it up - you get burnt doing that so looking to see where it settles down and have a much better understanding of what is going on now.

So you know the company well and came back - thanks Jester - gives a bit of confidence.

Good points LB28 - sound reasoning - all about entry point for me and minimising risk whilst maximising potential.

Are you being deliberately stupid? Or are you trying to get a rise out of me by calling me a liar. I am not lying and I am not saying what you say I am - if you don't understand that then you are a bit dumb - this ridiculous attempt to talk down the share is just pathetic - very amateurish attempt - so true. No more communication from me to you. But you can have the snot off the end of my nose. - devilsbeast - you have to chuckle at the name don't you - ooh scary.

Watched the last 2 jester - brought up many questions for me. maybe I am just overly wary of CEOs from experience. Hope to join in soon and good luck to you with your investment - have you been in for a while jester?

I am invested in WRES - the CEO there said no placings required - they had a placing the following week and have had further placings since.
However, as I have since posted a placing is less likely due to the possibility of tapping into the 50 million which is available to the sub contractors from ss. Just trying to get to the truth behind the company - very difficult - a lot of smoke and mirrors and quite a lot of carp to cut through from 'investors'. Just about there now - thanks for the replies.

Self correction - of course they can take some of the 50 million as an advanced payment on the sub contract work if they require - so placement is only a tiny possibility - still a possibility as they could clean up again with 3 times the warrant money through a discounted placing - the punters would be furious though - so they probably won't.

Hi Eye Guy I don't think they are lying - it's just that the money doesn't come in until the end of the year - the warrant money was needed to tied them over. They haven't said how much they will get or said what they are selling - that's the part I have been trying to uncover - about 5kg of PLATINUM is the answer I have come up with plus some other more valuable metals on top but they only get about 80% of the London prices at best. Based my 6p valuation discounted to 4p for carp from CEO on those 'facts'? Short term cash flow makes me wary of a placing. Masses of retail investors also makes me wary. Could be a great future here once we get over the present hurdles.

Hi Mikey - I am suggesting that the company is cash strapped and is inching it's way towards refinery payments at the end of the year which it needs to keep the lights on. The exercise of the warrants produced a small amount of money at 0.6p (they could have bought at 0.5p in the market but this would not have put money into the coffers of the company). I am suggesting that the CEO is quite rightly marketing the company as a palladium play but currently they are producing mainly platinum so the margins and profits are nowhere near those being touted by people on here. The warrant holders will triple their money IMO (been charting) and will have this money to re-invest in the company if necessary as money coming in at the end of the year is about half what folks are thinking. They are trying to avoid a placing and might just get away with it. The future looks rosy but there are still headwinds to get through. The share is worth 4p IMO and possibly 6p IF the CEO can be relied upon. But short term there are still dangers - a placing at a discount is not off the table and also mining may not go to schedule and the ebitda figures published may get pushed back 6 months to a year. This is mining. So overall I would like a bargain at 1.3p but more realistically 1.8p would cushion me from disappointments. Not prepared to pay 2.5p as the risk / reward is not as good as other shares I have at that price. Good luck with your investment - hope to join you soon.

Sorry but you need to go back to the video as you have misunderstood the man - he is difficult to listen to.
Firstly he says the concentrate is 73% metals sent to the refinery and the metals have a small discount to the London prices - so from that we can see that with refinery costs and a small discount we are not receiving the London prices. (maybe 80% thereof).
He then goes on to talk about future bedrock mining at a different location (near Norway I think he says but not sure) - it is this future mining that has 50% palladium - he does not lie on either of the videos I have watched but he is a salesman and realises that palladium is the buzz word and he is milking it for all it's worth - he actually admits this outright in the latest interview when he talks about his previous investments in popular areas of the market at the time. Watch them both again with a forensic eye - it is very revealing.