Member Info for Juxtapose

It will need to look different long before March 2019.

End of August will be interesting for Kabwe and by end of March 2019 Northam will have Platcro processing up and running.

In the meantime, we can look forward to a good update for the most recent Q and we already know that April and May production improved on the previous Q, with better recovery.

Perhaps the subtlety of the timing has escaped you, MVZ.

The JV agreement was announced to the market on 23rd October 2017 and at that time, BMR still had the licence.

Legal due diligence may well have been done first and at any time between 23rd October and 19th December, it would have shown that BMR had the licence: direct application to the MCD would have corroborated that position.

It was only on the 19th December that the position changed and even then there is doubt as to notification.

From the RNS dated 7th February 2018

"Jubilee Metals Group PLC notes the announcement made today by BMR Group PLC ("BMR") reporting that BMR received, yesterday, a letter from the Mining Cadastre Department of Zambia dated 19 December 2017 terminating, with immediate effect, the aforementioned mining right in respect of BMR's Kabwe operation.

BMR also states that the letter dated 19 December 2017, and received yesterday, indicates that BMR has 30 days to exercise its right of appeal. BMR intends to exercise this right as soon as practicable.

Leon, Chief Executive Officer, says: "This announcement was totally unexpected and Jubilee was not made aware of any potential challenge to the mining right.

We are doing all things necessary to assist BMR to resolve this matter timeously and favourably. In this regard we have made contact with the mining ministry of Zambia to arrange an urgent discussion to clarify the reasons for such a notification and its impact on the Kabwe project.

Jubilee will also use this opportunity to provide the Zambian Mining Cadastre Department with confirmation of Jubilee's commitment to BMR, for the immediate execution of the Kabwe project."

What needs to be taken away from this is wholly professional way in which the matter was handled by JLP.

Instead of pointless recriminations against either BMR or the mining ministry of Zambia, LC simply looked for the solution (as he does with technical matters) and turned adversity into opportunity doing BMR the favour of assisting them and at the same time becoming best mates with the Mining ministry.

From that point the market was updated meticulously and within 2 months, the licence was reinstated.

Looking at the timetable set by the Zambian government, I can see why the JV is pressing ahead with the zinc.

From the reinstatement RNS dated 5th April 2018

"The Project mining licence 7081-HQ-SML was reinstated with immediate effect, subject to conditions specified by the Minister of Mines and Mineral Development. These conditions were set to ensure the execution of the project is advanced without delay.

Conditions include that plant construction commence within 3 months of the reinstatement of the licence with commissioning commencing by 30 September 2018 and the first production due by 30 December 2018"

So, production to look forward to in less than 6 months.

As for the BHP notice, we should wait and see if that can also be smoothly negot

That cannot be the case.

BHP did not serve a termination notice because they thought that CB might have an idle "bee in his bonnet", so to speak. They served it because they were ripping up an agreement they had already made with Braemore and we have not been privy to the grounds they put forward. The likelihood is that they will have alleged some non-performance of a commitment.

All JLP had to do at the time was to dispute the notice.

That then puts the ball into BHP's court and they can then either ignore it and go ahead with some scheme of their own which would be quite reckless or the matter can go to court for a formal ruling on the legalities.

LC is already doing deals with the big boys: I wouldn't describe Northam as precisely a nobody and his credibility increases with every successful project he delivers. It was interesting that CB acknowledges that doors are opening to LC on his own merit now.

The common sense solution for both parties would be to co-operate rather than litigate and that is more likely if BHP thinks that JLP have something they can exploit and of course LC's USP is technical expertise (as was true of Braemore: nothing changes).

Without a doubt, Tjate was responsible for the rise and fall of this SP from the 2015 lows to 7.48p in Feb 2017 and now back to 2.35p and it is regrettable that that the unwary will have been fleeced.

Taking a cynical view, however, all those raises at higher prices have been far less dilutive than they would otherwise have been and so those still holding do eventually benefit.

Hernic is a success story

Looking at the recovery figures for the 4 Q's to date, these have gone from 0.31 to 0.85 and then 0.96 in the Dec Q. In the latest Q, March 2018, the throughput actually decreased but recovered oz. increased as the rate went up to 1.37 g/pt, which is close to the planned rate of 1.4 g/pt and so the operation has to be seen as a success story, in which JLP finally join the ranks of producers.

In the 2 months of the finally Q, nearly 4000 oz has been achieved, recovering 3972 oz from 79192 tonnes equating to a 1.55 g/t recovery.

That is a significant development, as a high proportion of costs are fixed: it produces more oz for less cost and will ultimately increases the "take" from the 240,000 oz in place (excluding arisings).

DCM is far less risky, as they simply have to roll out the blueprint.

I am presuming, that whatever upgrade they have done to the chrome processing, has made it more compatible with the anticipated PGM operation. As I understand from the SLP operation (where they have flow sheets to show the "project echo" processing) extracting chrome is the first part of the operation and the more chrome extracted, of course. the higher g/pt of the PGMs in the residual material. I cannot imagine that the significance of SLP's "project echo" will have escaped LC.

When this had a market cap double that of SLP, it was investor irrationality, but now that has been completely reversed and SLP's market cap is virtually double that of JLP, there is a compelling case to reexamine the two.

Although SLP is still ahead of JLP, the gap is rapidly closing and what makes JLP more interesting is the pipeline of projects, finance in place and diversification into other jurisdictions and more particularly, other commodities. By contrast, SLP has feet of clay, well remunerated management heading quietly for the retirement paddock..

One final thought. Kabwe will extend JLP's demonstrable ability to recover a portfolio of different metals in the very short term and for that reason, it may have a bearing on the BHP situation. As it stood in the 2017 accounts, provision was made against the assets, apart from the intellectual property, which is used in current operations, but JLP were looking at options to recover the project: perhaps a JV leveraging JLP's expertise?

Jay

The single biggest factor was the decline in POO.

The RH effect was much exacerbated by poor sentiment towards oilers.

The last 12 months has been disappointing and that has been down to the company,, with a drilling campaign which has been slow and of mixed success (Mariposa excellent, but still waiting for the next well, the Plat Northern extension not great and too many workovers on the producing wells in recent months).

If they can start to deliver on the drilling program, with the current POO, this will rocket, but until they do, sentiment is poor: skeptical rather than optimistic.

Well done to England's fresh young team: maybe a lesson for AMER!

If, as they said at the AGM, they were off to sweet talk a new investor, unless that investor can get a block deal off an existing investor, then it would be on market accumulation: set an AT and steadily pick up from exiting disaffected PIs.

It is not precisely manipulation: more simply, exploitation of the poor sentiment.

Whilst the delay assists, the company does not look to be complicit, as their bigger crime has been over-egging the pudding on timelines. It is unfortunate for anyone who needs the money short term, but so long as the July spudding holds firm, we should start to see some SP action.

Trojan

Feel free to post across to BMR

The LC chat on Directors Talk quite interesting.

Along with all the technical improvements/simplification of processes, the comments re the interface with the Zambian Govt. are quite telling: keep them in the loop, fully updated re progress and deliver what the region needs, jobs and environmental clean up.

It is quite ridiculous that BMR have had this project for so long ( I invested back in 2010/2011 on the back of Kabwe expectations and sold out when MA made no progress!) and it is still not in production. The Zambian Govt. had more patience than me!

LC and his technical team clearly have the ability to turn this round: lab boffins who have experience of scaling chemical and mechanical tests up into production facilities. Of course, it is far less of a challenge to extract %s per ton of lead zinc and vanadium than grams per ton of the platinum group: should be a walk in the park and they do have the chrome experience to draw on, as well.

Kabwe is a big pie and as JLP gets on with the job, it may be that some credibility comes back to BMR and both companies and the country, finally get some benefit out of this debacle: JLP may well choose to treat their JV partner well, as it is part of building a brand and getting a foot in the door on other projects. It was noticeable that LC was quite careful about marketing his processing improvements, without totally trashing his precursors.

As far as JLP is concerned, I have watched, bemused, over the last couple of years as value was attributed to the white elephant, Tjate and am equally amazed that anyone could fail to see that Kabwe is a superb acquisition, progressing professionally.

For those here who were "Emed" holders, LC is playing the brilliant "Alberto" to Borrelli's "Hopeless Harry" and that turnaround is clear for all to see: the engineer replaces the dreamer.

I finally did buy in yesterday, as JLP fits neatly into the investing criteria: a company already producing successfully (Hernic) with substantial expansion (Kabwe) and 2.2p ish looked a reasonable entry price, even if there is further short term turmoil from the BMR disposal of JPL shares.

Great to see someone in the industry with technical insight posting.

This is not the average AIM stock, since it combines funding from production (at this point in time with current POO) with spectacular speculative potential from the upcoming drills.

The current SP is underpinned by the production and therefore represents a free option on the drilling campaign..

It should be noted that the 2017 admin expenses were skewed by taking on more staff and general costs to cope with the expanding activities in the huge acreage: getting all those ducks in line.

"Up-scaling can happen at a much faster rate" is key here and it needs to be remembered that this lot rolled out the original Plat campaign as easily as shelling peas out of a pod.

We are currently waiting for updates on so many fronts

Progress on the upgrade of the RODA system
Mariposa perforation of the next pay zone (which might temporarily have affected output)
Indico spudding
Pintadillo mobilisation/spudding and then less than a month to results, as they are quick drills.
Put 8 update re Miraparriba
Environmental licences on Put 9 and Put 12

There should be a really good flow of news over the next 3 months and all in a country where political stability has finally been established and capped with the election of a pro business leader last month and against a background of much improved POO (underpinned by the Aramco aspirations: a rare treat of guaranteed commodity price, by those that can and are doing so, transparently)

Eventually, all this reflects in the share price, but for the moment, those who will gladly buy in at much higher prices are too nervous to back their own judgement.

I am struggling to see what the current hold up could be or if it is just a case of not understanding shareholder sentiment.

Analysing the current situation on the "N" sands.

Once they have completed the challenge of building the road, the next steps are repeat tasks, which they have done 20 or so times before, just in Platinilllo: it is therefore unlikely that any thing has gone wrong.

What they wholly fail to understand is the extent of damage to sentiment caused by earlier delays and that keeping shareholders informed (even of the minutiae) is required to rebuild sentiment.

What does it cost to issue an RNS on mobilisation or get a photo gallery going on the website, showing the completion of the site preparation and some of the tasks? In a modern world of instant communication it really is pathetic: for the most part, the website is cluttered with junk from 2014 and prior. What conclusions would any new investor draw from that, other than they are a "has been" rather than a "now" company?

Whilst I still see this as having great potential, the "free option on a really exciting drilling campaign" that message is simply not being communicated.

The plan is so simple.

Use cash generated at these oil prices and monetise the now extensive acreage.

JW needs to deliver, as promised, through the drill bit and it helps if said drill bit is turning!

Has anyone else noticed that the current selection of images on the website includes the rig, but is it a current or previous shot?

It would be good to get an update on progress: those conductor pipes in the cellars and rig mobilisation for the "N" sands and how close ONGC is to spudding Indico.

Similar thoughts at close of play yesterday.

Bid dropped at 16.29 and 53 seconds and a UT of 15.02, substantially below the trading in the closing minutes.

What confidence does that give anyone in an "open market" system?

Well, put me into the "misguided soul" camp, if you like, but I would never invest in a share where I did not have a modicum of belief in those that run the show.

In the cold hard light of day, how many can say that they have achieved anything approaching the business success of Messrs Wardle, Clarke, Coffield or Snow?

This simply is not your bunch of average AIM losers.

Obviously, success is down to the drill bit and so Wardle is key to that success. Do we believe that he did change the focus of CPO-5, or indeed was responsible for the EE find, as is widely credited to him?

Why not give someone credit for bagging that land bank for virtually nothing?

It has been a slow journey, but the mistake is to believe that they are incapable of rolling out a drilling campaign: we know that the can, as they did so on Platinillo. Here, they have set it up, on both the "N"sands and CPO-5 to go for roll out in a big way, if the results justify.,

Agreed, BF.

Choppy

Of course there has been delay, but to say that its headed in the wrong direction takes no account of the overall strategy.

They had limited acreage in Putumayo and have increased this tenfold at minimal cost and out of the cash balance, rather than utilising the RBL.

Now, at the drill bit, they intend turning that land bank into reserves.

It is happening, but just more slowly than we would have liked.

The "N" sands are under their control and we are told that the conductor pipe is being installed in each of the 3 cellars and then rig mobilisation (from the nearby pad): it could all happen anytime now.

Given all the information which has been posted here about ONGC, there must be some imperative for them to get the drill bit turning in CPO-5.

It is worth listening to the AGM presentation at 11.34 to 12.11 and again at 22.46 onwards.

Indico is the 1st of 3 separate prospects, which each carry a good CoS (offsets and lookalikes to the Mariposa discovery.

Part of a new train of thought which we have eventually applied in CPO-5: before our presence, 3 wells drilled that were not very good.

Then at 22.46

"turned around in 2016"

Started looking for things similar to what you have in Guataquia; Corcel Jatay 1 (highest producing well at 10,000 bopd)

Identified this thing called Mariiposa.....

So JW's story is that it is Amer's approach that yielded the success in a block which had previously disappointed and what is most significant is that they are copying the success in the adjacent block.

As you say, JTD, further down the line they may pursue other intervals in the stacked play, but there is a quite a significant program already planned , as they are looking at the Mirador pinch out in the south of the block and the extension of the Bacano and Alzira fields in the north.

It is a big block with multiple prospects, but actually turning a drill bit would be helpful: I am rapidly becoming allergic to the word "tender"!

JW is remarkably well connected in Colombia and whatever else his sins may (or may not) be, he should be credited with the vastly increased acreage at virtually no cost, taking the tax credits into account. He is credited with the EE discovery and would like to be acknowledged for the CPO-5 change of direction. Certainly he has a good engineering team at Amer and I would expect the "N" sand drilling to progress on schedule.

All that on CPO-5 is confirmed in the webcast. Lots of snippets, such as "a new train of thought" and we don't run the place, but we do spend a lot of time each week in their offices! Obviously, over time, by their account, they have changed the focus of the drilling campaign to following through from the Guatiquia/Corcel blocks and attribute the Mariposa success to this new train of thought. Equally, they must be persuading ONGC that adding one well a year is not the way forward. I asked JW specifically about rig availability and the assurance was that there were lots of rigs in the area and with availability.

Interesting analysis, JTD. Let us just hope that the BOD (and JW in particular) go from zero to hero in the next couple of weeks. Looking at the current issue, rainfall, building a road in the excess flooding will be tricky, but once the road is in across the flooded areas, then access is secured and that should give more predictable progress: even though the rainfall might continue to be heavy, that is not the real problem. It would be good to be updated on rig mobilisation, as that is obviously such an important milestone.. " The flooding in particular has necessitated the installation of additional drainage works on the road and a change in the elevation of the drilling location. It is expected to install the 13.3/8" conductor pipe in each of the three well cellars currently under construction at the end of the week commencing 11 June 2018, followed by rig mobilisation. Spudding of Pintadillo-1 is expected in July 2018".

Wholly agree with you, BF. I would actually see it as a negative, if further acquisitions were made before the drill bit monetized at least some of the existing inventory. When the drill bit finally does turn and if it is successful, then of course, that would be entirely different, a sensible reinvestment, rather than stretching resources too thinly. Alex Snow is a real heavy weight: in many ways, literally as well as figuratively speaking, a bigger version of GC, intimidatingly focused.

The problem here seems to be with a lack of understanding of the oil exploration game. The production is expected to deplete and the name of the game is to apply the proceeds in such a manner that new wells exceed that depletion. The problem here is not that the Platinillo production is depleting, but that CPO-5 has taken so long to move on to 2 and more wells. Equally, the "N" sands are late. The acreage is there, the plan is there, but the SP reflects the failure to get the drill bit turning on the 3 fields as planned. Once that does happen (and the mini presentation indicates tangible progress in early June) we should be looking at exponential growth in production. The effect of perforating additional zones in Mariposa is interesting: having alerted us to the fact that was to happen "within the next month" they need to follow through with better information. I am assuming that it might have been offline for a few days and then initially back on at a controlled flow rate, but there are many different techniques: it might not have been as simple as dropping a perforating gun down and new packers above and below (and testing, rightly so, is always a major part of any such operation).