Member Info for Juxtapose

"Just think JLP have not even started including Tjate in the share price and the license has been approved for some time"

Tjate is an albatross, still slung round JLP's neck.

Unless a major new use is found for platinum, the only way supply and demand are balanced (or eroding the existing stockpile) is by the closing down of underground mines and hoping that the cheaper alternative sources (recycling, tailings and by-product from mining other metals) do not overfill the gap.

There can be no case whatsoever for capitalizing a major new mine, which, however efficiently run, could never compete cost wise with these other sources. They need to be exhausted first, by which time, the major use, in the automotive industry, may have ceased.

The industry (major producers through the WPIC) produce quarterly statistics which sets this all out so clearly and the brief is to promote new uses: to date, nothing has really taken off and many were burned on platinum as an investment: it is competing with gold and silver (and now, of course, all these crypto currencies).

Northam will be in it for the smelting (always a very profitable part of the platinum business model), as they were funded for a new smelter, which was formally commissioned in Feb 2018.

Environmentals to be completed first.

Tom

I used the word "sell" in a generalized sense: whatever mechanization was used in the multi stage process, Hum management reduced their interest in Sanankoro from 100% to 34%. of what they had acquired from Goldfields and they already knew it had potential from the work done by Goldfields.

Perhaps the more appropriate word would be asset strip?

Given their projections of Yanfolila as a cash cow, they would have been in an excellent position to fund 100% of the exploration themselves and later capitalize on the synergies: possibly extending the life of the plant now built. Treating Cora as a non core asset was inexplicable, as it was the perfect follow on project and would have added exploration "spice" to HUM and a reinvestment home for the cash generated, plus "double bubble" from the plant in due course..

Instead, they pursued AGG, quite obviously a dog from day one with poor grades and some pie in the sky technology and now this latest proposal.

Brian

You are making it over simplistic

Looking at the figures in the RNS from the 19th July
33101 oz gold poured
Average selling price $1307
All in sustaining Cost $790
Therefore profit per oz $517
$517 x 33101 = $17,113,217
If they never extend life of mine, and it runs for another 5 years, that's total profit of $342 million

Gold is nearly $100 per Oz less at the moment and that could over time have a big impact.

If the life of the mine is not extended, then reducing amounts are produced each year: take a look at their projections.

That has the unfortunate consequence of higher AISC as a component will be fixed and lower grades always cost more per oz.. to produce: same throughput, but less produced oz. One of the key questions is whether AISC were projected to be the same $750 throughout the LOM or whether they were supposed to be lower with this 1st year production.

You have completely ignored administration costs (on site are usually included,in AISC, but not head office) , finance charges and taxation and there is a govt share once capital investment has been repaid.

The question for me would be why did they sell any part of Cora, if they have money to invest in other enterprises? That was the perfect, near at hand, follow on project and this is not the first wild goose chase on which they have gone, after disposing of a really interesting proposition.

As far as HUM is concerned, if the gold price recovers, it should do well, but a better understanding of the whole picture, Brian, might be a good idea and looking at the assumptions in the company's own NPV calculations is a good place to start.

We want to blend our own oil to go through the OBA.

Starting with Pintadillo.

The second Put 8 prospect is closer to the western border of Plat and would be a candidate.

Put 9 and 12 are also part of our OBA cluster.

I am firmly in the camp that wants to see us crack on with developing the acreage that we have and completing the outlined program Pintadillo, Put 8, Put 9 and 12 over the next 6 months or so: now is the time of high oil prices.

Well, we might have first mover advantage in Put 12 if, as promised, we had actually moved (and who would look to ONGC for anything other than a french cuisine experience?).

No update yet on the Put 12 (or 9) environmentals.

Perhaps, like buses, all our RNSs will finally arrive together, but currently, I would just settle for mobilization of that rig to Pintadillo 1 and a date from the Indians.

Moneyhawk

They achieved project and corporate positive cash generation for H1.

They are making profit at the project level, but still have to make a profit after non cash items at group level. which is the next milestone per the LC webcast on the interim results.

Which then leads to the next round of disagreement, whether that is before or after translation of foreign subsidiaries.......so not long for Rosewall's next treat: to be Horribly Bored by the Des-per-ate-ly DULL!

Monty Python

Counsellor
Well chartered accountancy is rather exciting isn't it?

Anchovy
"Exciting? No it's not. It's dull. Dull. Dull. My God it's dull, it's so desperately dull and tedious and stuffy and boring and des-per-ate-ly DULL".

Counsellor
Well, er, yes Mr Anchovy, but you see your report here says that you are an extremely dull person. You see, our experts describe you as an appallingly dull fellow, unimaginative, timid, lacking in initiative, spineless, easily dominated, no sense of humour, tedious company and irrepressibly drab and awful. And whereas in most professions these would be considerable drawbacks, in chartered accountancy they are a positive boon.

Sorry chaps!

The problem is that you simply don't want to understand the difference between cumulative and the specific period, H1.

If you really want to enlighten everyone here, rather than peddle your own agenda, you would explain the nature of the working capital adjustments on the cash flow statement, which are the difference between the cash generated and cash utilized.

Working capital changes total £1.942 million and this £1.942 is comprised of 3 figures.

Increase in inventories 149
Increase in receivables 845
Decrease in payables 948

The expectation for a rapidly expanding production company is that inventories and receivables will increase (as they have done here), but that these will partially be offset by an increase in payables (which has not happened here).

It is the analysis of that oddity which tells the story that cash generated in this period has been used to pay down debts incurred in the previous period : instead of payables increasing and thus helping fund the growth of this period, payables have actually decreased as cash of this period has been utilized to wipe out prior liabilities: nothing to do with operating activities of this period whatsoever.

Accounting is about interpreting figures rather than just reciting them....but as you have an agenda you no doubt will keep banging on about utilization and no one here is going to make you quit that obvious anti company and anti Leon agenda.

As I said before, as each cash generative period passes, liquidity improves and once the old current liabilities have been paid off, the working capital adjustment will revert to the norm and cash generation and cash utilization will be more aligned.

We are not really in disagreement, JTD.

Both the groups I mentioned could have city links doing their best.

Ultimately, they can do nothing if PIs do not oblige with cheap shares, but this has been a long wait and will have caught some PIs out.

As you say, I am reluctant to criticize: I see the "sell button" as the most obvious way of doing that, once negatives exceed positives.

Again, as you say, every day is one closer to spudding and the volume says that most PIs are sticking 2 fingers up at the pros and their games, if that is what we are seeing (and we often do see mm "games" on RNS day, such as when the OBA was announced and stops were triggered in the prior hour to collect stock).

In any business cash investment is required both to develop the fixed asset and to fund working capital.

That is the concept of utilization and it is cumulative throughout the life of the business.

What LC is correctly saying re H1, is that from an operating point of view revenue less "cash" expenditure (discounting book entries such as depreciation) is now a positive number for that period.

More importantly, as long as Hernic continues to perform as well as (or better than) H1, there is on going generation of positive cash for each period, however it might be utilized, in working capital increases or fixed assets for this or other projects.

It is an achievement of which the company is rightly proud, as it marks a turning point: for LTHs: it is the light at the end of a very long tunnel.

There is a difference between "cash generated" and "cash utilized"

The latter includes increases/decreases in working capital and is a Balance Sheet rather than a P & L consideration and fluctuates on a daily basis: the "snap shot" concept..

The Cash Flow statement and P & L figures are of course based on the same information, but "cash generated" is easier to extract from the P & L.

Even if it was just ignorance, you still owe LC an apology.

The buys could be coming from 2 sources.

Either shorters trying to close out positions (SOL was pretty stable at 11/12m from recollection at the last month end) or management did attract interest from someone now buying in chunks, mopping up shares from ****ed off PIs or folk who have to sell for some reason and this is now outside their planned timescale.

In both cases, it would be providing support, so not a bad thing in itself.

It just needs Amer to stick to that July commitment on Pintadillo...

The interims to 31st December 2017 showed cash generation from operations.

The statement

"Jubilee Group delivers increased positive earnings before non-cash operating expenses and interest for the period of GBP 1.54 million (ZAR 27.20 million)"

is backed up by the figures in the accounts, where they have split the operating costs between cash and non cash

Profit/(loss) before non-cash operating expenses and interest 1535
Less: Finance costs (further down as a separate item) (204)

So,before non cash items and discounting various bits of investment income, the group's cash flow benefited by 1.33 million CASH GENERATED FROM OPERATIONS.

So, by peddling misinformed tripe, do you deserve the sobriquet of "habitual Liar" or shall we just call you "Van Liar" for short?

sniffyduster

We are not in agreement over anything other than your point 1.

For the rest, I am positive and if that were not so, I would neither have bought in here nor bore everyone on this BB with my point of view.

My positivity is founded on Hernic, which I see as a turning point for JLP, a profitable high margin project, cash generative and shortly funding the group expenses. That moves JLP from endless dilution into the situation where debt financing is possible and comfortable and the group will build on from here: even with the current pipeline of projects, the profit potential is significant and I, in full agreement with other posters here, particularly like Kabwe.

Well, it appears that the great and good are all in agreement that platinum production will not continue at a loss and that no new big mines are riding in to the rescue.

The time scales given in the interview seem somewhat cautious to me.

Repeating part of my earlier post

"As for soggy PMG prices, we could be in for an interesting period if the Sibanye/Lonmin deal goes ahead as Neal Fronman is said to be asset stripping: buying Lonmin principally for the smelting capacity, which is the area where producers are held to ransom. We could see a real reduction in unprofitable production and an outside chance of the whole conglomerate crashing, as the gearing is phenomenal and PGM prices have not obliged."

What I actually think is that Fronman will keep on peddling his "better to have some jobs than none" and the threat of such a big South African miner crashing out of the market will force the miners to accpt closure of unprofitable operations, squeezing supply and increasing prices.

To some extent, as consolidation takes place, the remaining big players can act like a cartel: not dissimilar to the OPEC set up for oil and look how that can play out.

The coherent argument is that back in 2008, with platinum topping $2300 per oz. Tjate looked like a dead cert.

Since then, oversupply has been the problem and prices have fallen and stayed down, as suppliers failed to re balance the market.

The last thing that is required is a new large scale mine and no-one will fork out the substantial capital investment, particularly as there is likely to be further decline in demand as diesels and their catalytic converters are phased out.

That left Leon Coetzer to figure out a change of direction and to find the finance to fund it.

So far, he has done well, getting Hernic up and running profitably, a solid base from which to expand.

In due course, when the market can "see" rather than being "told", then the SP will reflect his achievement.

Until then, this SP is an opportunity and for those who disagree, there are plenty more fish in the AIM pond.

Well how did the word "share" become a row of asterisks!

"Later, they moved into platinum (huge gearing to get established) with Aquarius Platinum, Anglo's Rustenburg assets, then Stillwater in Montana (including recycling) and more recently the offer for Lonmin on a share basis."

You are confusing them with Sibanye, which was the spin off of from Goldfields of the Beatrix gold mine, KDC mine (formerly Kloof) and Driefontein mine.

Later, they moved into platinum (huge gearing to get established) with Aquarius Platinum, Anglo's Rustenburg assets, then Stillwater in Montana (including recycling) and more recently the offer for Lonmin on a ************** basis.

Northam were 4th largest in the platinum space and bought out Aquarius' Everest mine..

The market has been "recognising" the Tjate factor and coming to terms with the fact that is not a ready made mint. Too much hype and tripe over a long period on that, by those who have no understanding of the platinum space or had an agenda and it should not be forgotten that JLP was in the Beaufort stable, where such goings on are finally being acknowledged, kind courtesy of the American authorities.

Certainly, the Hernic achievement has been overshadowed by the readjustment of the SP to reflect the Tjate reality, but that creates an opportunity.

As for soggy PMG prices, we could be in for an interesting period if the Sibanye/Lonmin deal goes ahead as Neal Fronman is said to be asset stripping: buying Lonmin principally for the smelting capacity, which is the area where producers are held to ransom. We could see a real reduction in unprofitable production and an outside chance of the whole conglomerate crashing, as the gearing is phenomenal and PGM prices have not obliged.

One of the real pluses of JLP, is their willingness to move out of PGMs and SA: Kabwe is the perfect near term opportunity to diversify and it cannot be long before even those with minimal business understanding grasp that reality.

Good final Q's results and sticking to the August deadline for the Kabwe process: profit and promise, hand in hand.

Any idea what eventually happened to Corbs, itsaduster?