Member Info for Juxtapose

" the chance to remove some of them passed when AGM debate was curtailed" Excuse me......... Formal proceedings always take place prior to the Q &A and nobody was deprived of the opportunity to caste their vote (including me, who voted against the re-election of Foss on the grounds of complacency: but I was in the minority and accept that democratic decision). As an attendee at that AGM, the disappointment was that the discussion of the LTIP awards dominated the discussion, virtually to the exclusion of other matters and it was that "other debate" which ended up being cut short (including my questions on hedging and Put 9/12). Re Mariposa it is currently producing from the top zone in a stable manner "like a Swiss watch"and the expectation is that adding the next zone should enhance performance. Why assume that the 3.8k road is impassable?Even though it has been an exceptionally wet year, that last mini presentation clearly showed progress on the road and they had put in a box culvert where the waters were flowing, rather than leave the potential for the site to be cut off, either the rig, tankers or personnel.

Well, there does seem a concerted effort to talk this down. The lower it goes, the less likelihood that it has of reaching 30p with any degree of ease, simply due to profit taking at pivotal percentages. Roth, you seem to be making your post on all the "media channels" and so it would appear that you are into self-harming (strictly in the financial sense, of course). Last week I attended the oil capital conference, with 7 presentations and at the end of it, felt that Amer still heads the pack. Many were talking about later this year, next year or even 2012 and here we are all angsting about whether it will be June or a couple of weeks later. Before anyone points to the delay to date, that is irrelevant at this point in time. The focus should be on how advanced are preparations and there is sufficient evidence to suggest that the remaining wait is weeks and not additional months.

One of the possibilities for a follow up RNS would be Mariposa " Mariposa-1 continues to produce in a stable manner and the operation to perforate additional zones in the well is expected to be performed within the next month". That could be read as within a month starting from the 8th June or as June (being the next month). From recollection, currently, it is producing from the top 10 feet and there were 120 feet in total, but they will just be adding the next down payzone.

The answer is that it is not a "bona fide" profits warning. This is an exploration company and much of the expectation is on the drilling campaign. Part of the disappointment expressed in the SP drop is that spudding is not happening on any of the 3 prospects until July. Taken with delays to date, the company is now (rightly so) facing a skeptical market. When it does finally start to deliver, then the market is likely to reflect some optimism and reverse that part of the SP drop.

"London Stock Exchange service update - Uncrossing is scheduled for 9am"

Problem at LSE

I would agree that as today, 31st May, was the cut-off point, the MSCI action has concluded and it may well be that many institutions are simply now holding Amer direct: we will see if there are any holdings RNSs in the next few days. The change has nothing to do with emotions such as running out of patience: as with all Indexes, such as the Footsie, it is a market cap exercise and that can be impacted simply because a particular sector is in or out of favor. If POO stays high, the various Indexes could be flooded by runaway oilers, back on form. As for Amer, with drilling in 3 fields in the next month or so, we could bounce straight back into the MSCI, if our market cap doubles on drilling success. All down to the drill bit now and good luck to all those LTHs who have been patiently waiting for this moment.

Baysil This is not a variant of the "maintenance man changing all the light bulbs at the optimum moment" costing question. For starters, unlike our 20ish wells, the light bulb population is significantly larger and so a normal distribution can be calculated. No doubt, if it becomes apparent that such parts routinely fail at a similar usage point, then they will be changed at that point, but such data is not yet established. In this scenario, it seems that the failure is identified by well performance and then the change (costing parts, man power and reduced production kick in... they would be the same done earlier and possibly unnecessarily). As far as I can see, this is all down to the sensitivity of monitoring the well performance. If the problem "shows" quite quickly, then the "changing all the light bulbs" gains nothing. What will be interesting is to watch how this progresses and to see if the approach changes as more data becomes available.

At the AGM there was discussion on specifically that point, JTD. Post Loto 1 and 2 and Kamal, they had a "new train of thought" on CPO-5 and Mariposa was the result of that new interpretation. Presumably, they have gained information not only from their own drills, but also all the drilling to the north and west. It did sound as if JW and staff do spend a lot of time with ONGC. The distinction was made between this area that we are currently drilling and the continuation of the prolific Llanos 34 fields that have made Parex and Geopark. That will be additional and I think that they are letting the Llanos 34 pair do the hard work, carrying their exploration right up to our border (my guess, not what they said) . Also, there is a third area to the south east, on which progress is being made. CPO-5 is a big block, largely unexplored currently and so at the right address.

So, another 15 million share day, including Nex: Amer certainly is attracting a lot of interest at the moment.

At the AGM, it was said by JW that 500,030 barrels had been produced by the previous day. ie 14th May. Also, at 41 API production costs are less. Perforation of additional zones expected to be performed "within the next month".

At the AGM, it was said by JW that 500,030 barrels had been produced by the previous day. ie 14th May. Also, at 41 API production costs are less. Perforation of additional zones expected to be performed "within the next month".

JTD RH was down to 52 million at 31st March, 4.35% In times of low volume, that would take some time to shift, but that is not the case at the moment. There are single weeks recently, such as 16/4, when the (false) volume exceeded RH's total remaining holding and last week was 47 million and with regular weekly volumes of 20 million now being the norm. For that reason ( if he is still selling) he will be neutralized fairly quickly.. After the AGM, the BOD were off to see a new shareholder and a single institution wanting a decent holding would see him gone either directly or on market purchase. At the AGM the old story that he refused a buyout at a much higher price was wheeled out again, but I am not sure that has much relevance now. It also has to be remembered that there was still some 12 million SOL outstanding at the end of April. I want every available last cent to go into drilling and so am not in favor of share buyback (or dividends for that matter).

I simply do not subscribe to the SP "low by design" conspiracy theory. Quite the reverse: they have damaged credibility trying to sell the good news story early, but then finding a banana skin or simply being late. Each dip over the last 12 months can be identified to a fundamental and "by accident" rather than by design" applies. On CPO-5 news last May, this motored up to 27p, but the truth is that such exuberance was too soon and it is only now that the CPO-5 program is really being rolled out by ONGC and that 27p justified. Without a doubt they tried to play down the civil unrest in July, only telling the market once it was resolved = burying bad news. In Autumn, great expectations were raised that wells 23, 25 and 27 would significantly enhance production, but they were unlucky with the drill bit: surely, no-one would be mad enough to suggest that they deliberately drilled two duff wells? They then promised the "N" sands in Q1 and that was delayed into Q2, crushing the mounting January expectations as evidenced in the price. They did all they could to reassure us that it was a good news story (including penciling in Indico for May, when it is, in fact June). They certainly were not expecting the reaction to the LTIP, as they see AMER as a really good news story albeit with a bit of delay. At the AGM, they were quite sullen about the ferocity of the backlash and clearly see the criticism and the SP as equally undeserved. For me, this is all largely a question of timing: delay is frustrating, but solid foundations have been built and it does finally look as if the ducks are in a row OBA expansion (a really good deal, which they couldn't wait to announce to the market and is apparently on schedule), "N" sands back on track to be drilled in June ONGC finally pulling their finger out The bonus of PUT 8 and then a second Putumayo rig in PUT 9/12 and all against a background of Brent knocking on the door of $80 a barrel and our existing production now funding the ambitious campaign. Just for once, I would agree with Malcy that the current SP is the equivalent of having an option on a really exciting drilling campaign and the combination of that, with all the TAers coming on board once the trend reverses, could be really good news. Oilers, of course, always are a game of chance and with great appeal to gamblers, but in this case, multiple drills do significantly enhance the overall COS, as does the level of understanding and interpretation which has been gained over time in CPO-5 and Putumayo.

PP Looking at the main operators Parex (6th Feb 2018 reserves statement) 1P 76688 Geopark (5th February 2018 reserves statement 1P 66100 for all of Colombia, but Llanos 34 is their major focus

bigspike All three drills targeting P50 resources The N Sand anomaly at Pintadillo is one of four such anomalies identified by the Company in the central part of the Platanillo block. It is estimated to hold P50 resources of 11.44 mmbo. Miraparriba structure is a low risk U and T sand light oil structural target covered by 3D seismic with gross P50 recoverable resources estimated at 4.4 mmbo by the Operator. Indico-1 is targeting the same play as the successful Mariposa-1 well, but is further up dip in a larger structure. The Operator estimates a gross P50 recoverable resource at Indico-1 of 10.3 mmbo. All 3 have good prospects. On the N sands, the modelling goes right across the basin with good actual well data, the Put 8 is drilling off an existing pad in the adjacent block and so local data. albeit in the N sands rather than the U and T, if I understand correctly. On CPO-5, there was a bit of insight at the recent meeting, with discussion of the new train of thought, which resulted in Mariposa, rather than the less successful Loto 1 and 2 and Kamal: they are confident re this revised understanding and already talking about a 3 well productive pack at Indico.

For those who did attend yesterday's AGM (and attendance was poor) it was quite a subdued affair, with the BOD all lined up to face the firing squad: sadly, although there was adequate time for questions, it was largely monopolized by the criticism of those share options under the LTIP, made politely but eloquently. One of my issues over a long period of time, has been how little emphasis that there has been on CPO-5 and that was addressed both at the meeting and in the presentation which is now on the website. The takeaway comment from GC was on Parex and Geopark, companies with 3 billion market cap on success in Llanos 34. Finally, in the most recent presentation, CPO-5 is more than a by-line and that was brought out further by the discussion around those slides, in 3 parts. Firstly, in the area in which we are currently operational, there was clarity around that "contingent well" mentioned by JTD. Apparently, if Indico is successful, then they will go right ahead and "monetize the asset" by drilling additional wells at this location. So, in addition to Mariposa, Indico, Sol and Aguila, we may have what was described as a "3 well productive pack" in Indico (apparently "full to spill"). We were told to expect the first well in CPO-5 in June and when I queried that they were only just tendering for the rig, I was told by JW that 5 were available in the location; unlike Putumayo, they are on hand because of all the local activity. Secondly, there seemed to be a marked degree of interest in the SE corner of the vast block. Thirdly, there was detailed discussion around the slide showing the synthetic Guadalupe trap, which the company believes may extend into CPO-5. What they are talking of, is drilling a well, rather than than the more conventional route of spending money on seismics. That would not be done soon as they already have a full schedule. There was a lot more said, but I won't bore on.

Why would "our" Serinco D rig not "show" when, historically, it has been stacked on site, allegedly at no cost to us?

Page 53 The comparator group comprises the following UK and Canadian quoted E&P companies: Bowleven Oil & Gas, Cairn Energy, Canacol Energy, EnQuest, Faroe Petroleum, Genel Energy, Gran Tierra Energy, Lekoil, Ophir Energy, Pantheon Resources, Parex Resources, Parkmead Group, Premier Oil, SOCO International, Sound Oil and Tullow Oil.

It is in the report and includes such as Panr.