RE: Rise from Fri onwards22 Jan 2025 00:20
A genuine post deserves people spending a bit of time to respond, this is my opinion.
Your timeline? Give or take 1-2 weeks plus or minus I would agree.
RNS's - I actually expect some sort of update to say they are proceeding with the first infusion, be it RNS or interview as it would not demand an RNS, but who knows with vlad. Then yep an RNS for first injection then no update on the trial for atleast 4 weeks. This itself however is very positive, we dont want an update in those 4 weeks, an update in all likelyhood means clinical hold, no news is good news. At which point we can start breathing again as Phase 1 is safety, any safety concerns they would pause the trial so no pause, no update is what we want. At that point we can probably start to expect updates on some efficiency and/or further patients being enrolled and it really should get quite busy.
Funding - Vlad has gone to American brokers to raise funds, at this time we are talking US retail, not institutions, as such he would have raised already but raising in the US has more hurdles than the UK. They are not waiting for results, I am sure if Vlad could raise 2-3m tomorrow from US investors he would as it would allow him to ramp up CBR and CDX. We are talking modest sums in terms of Pharma but big in terms of Hemo, the move to US being an attempt to escape the toxic and stagnant UK raising market where discounts/shorting and flipping are order of the day, VS the US model of buying at market rate but attaching warrants at a premium to encourage growth.
Institutional investment - Honestly dont bet on anything, if there is demand and competition they could license tomorrow if they offered Vlad enough green. Or they could wait for efficiency reports, if so it could be 1-3 patients if the first 3 have very positive reactions to the lowest dose, OR we may not see the desired efficiency until the 2nd or 3rd round of dose escalated treatments meaning 4-6 or 7-9 patients. Based off the results from Senti against FLT3 with a CAR-NK its entirely possible the results at the lowest dosage have significant signs of remission and enough for an institution to make a move.
Pediatrics - Speaking to Haywain and this probably needs an IND, I dont think its waiting for the adult trials or blocked, but progressing in parallel in the background, I heard March or April?
The 7p last Feb came from a significant uptick in visibility caused by FDA approval, it was destroyed by Hemo deciding to go back to Peterhouse to do a placing. Even 7p was a gross undervaluation, but Vlad has accepted he cannot sustain any rise relying on peterhouse specials which is why the US. But likewise Peterhouse traders were part of the pump to rise the SP to allow a placing last year, this year they are not welcome. Is first injection bigger than FDA approval for trials? I think so, the risks are greater now that HG-CT-1 fails, but the potential rewards greater also.
Lets hope for the patient and us Vlad is as good as he says